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pemeliza
Participant“Sooner or later the supply is bound to outstrip them in number, and sellers will have to deal with us ordinary schlubs if they want to sell their houses at all.”
I love this line.
Sums it up to a freakin T.
I was scanning the Point Loma Inventory today.
The last line of a MLS supplement gave me a chuckle.… or taking in some fresh air while BBQing in your child-safe fenced backyard. “Come live the fairytale.”
Freudian slip?
Participant“Sooner or later the supply is bound to outstrip them in number, and sellers will have to deal with us ordinary schlubs if they want to sell their houses at all.”
I love this line.
Sums it up to a freakin T.
I was scanning the Point Loma Inventory today.
The last line of a MLS supplement gave me a chuckle.… or taking in some fresh air while BBQing in your child-safe fenced backyard. “Come live the fairytale.”
Freudian slip?
ParticipantI guess our story is similar to yours JES. We lived
in a premier neighborhood in Encinitas and essentially gave
our house away late ’03 before the massive runup. By
mid ’04 we had enough of trying to buy back in
and headed to Chapel Hill NC.Luckily we bought in at a fairly decent time for this area
and have done well on our new house. It wasn’t cheap
(450k) but we have an acre smack dab in the middle of
Chapel Hill, 3400 ft on one level, and can
walk to Whole Foods and soon a new Trader Joes.Like you our biggest problem is no family. The second
biggest problem is mosquitos. Other than that we love
it here. The beaches are actually quite nice (Kure
especially) and remind me of old school Encinitas.
The weather is actually not quite as bad as what you are
probably led to believe. The spring and fall are really
quite nice. The winters are mild and the summers well
there’s the problem … but hey summers are visiting
folks in San Diego right?The schools are excellent and well this is a premier
college town so there is a lot to do.If we do move back
it would probably be to North Poway which I think is kind
of an underrated area on this board. The location isn’t
perfect but at least you can get some privacy, schools,
views and fairly funky housing stock. One thing is for
sure I couldn’t do the damn tract home thing again.ParticipantI guess our story is similar to yours JES. We lived
in a premier neighborhood in Encinitas and essentially gave
our house away late ’03 before the massive runup. By
mid ’04 we had enough of trying to buy back in
and headed to Chapel Hill NC.Luckily we bought in at a fairly decent time for this area
and have done well on our new house. It wasn’t cheap
(450k) but we have an acre smack dab in the middle of
Chapel Hill, 3400 ft on one level, and can
walk to Whole Foods and soon a new Trader Joes.Like you our biggest problem is no family. The second
biggest problem is mosquitos. Other than that we love
it here. The beaches are actually quite nice (Kure
especially) and remind me of old school Encinitas.
The weather is actually not quite as bad as what you are
probably led to believe. The spring and fall are really
quite nice. The winters are mild and the summers well
there’s the problem … but hey summers are visiting
folks in San Diego right?The schools are excellent and well this is a premier
college town so there is a lot to do.If we do move back
it would probably be to North Poway which I think is kind
of an underrated area on this board. The location isn’t
perfect but at least you can get some privacy, schools,
views and fairly funky housing stock. One thing is for
sure I couldn’t do the damn tract home thing again.ParticipantSD with perhaps a few exceptions you have simply enumerated the areas with the best schools in San Diego County. I noticed you didn’t put in Carmel Valley or Del Mar and I don’t regularly hear that San Carlos and Tierra have great schools although they certainly are steller locations.
I think people expecting a meltdown in these areas may be in for a long wait if it ever comes at all. Many of the areas you mentioned are either built out or the current building sites are undesirable. For example all of the new development that I know of in Scripps has a 1.5 tax rate (Stoneridge) and what about La Costa? Try 1M+ for La Costa Greens and La Costa Ridge only to be in the San Marcos School District. (I do think Warmington is doing some
homes soon in the 700k-800k range but again SM schools).A lot of the recent run-up in these areas can be rationalized because of the
desirable schools and lack of new land to develop on. Folks looking for bargains during this next cycle may have to look at less desirable areas and think long term. In general follow the money.I personally wasn’t willing to take a chance on say Ocenside and so loaded up the car in 2004 and headed to North Carolina where I currently live in one of the best school districts in the country. I can assure you if Encinitas or Scripps or even La Costa take a major hit I would likely be one of the folks waiting in line to get back in.
Participant“Perhaps it was the dollar that lost half its value and not that my house doubled…!”
– I think this is precisely what happened and I have lived on both coasts. I sold very early in 2004 and missed A LOT of the price gains in North County. I rented for a few months and could not stand it so I got a deal on my dream house in Chapel Hill, NC and have scarcely looked back except to check on the status of the market occasionally (a lot of my family live in SD).
I am one of the folks that would likely move back if the market crashed but have hedged with a house elsewhere so I’m not hurting bad if it doesn’t.I can’t predict what is going to happen anymore than the next guy but I can say this. Bears are fond of saying that the market doesn’t care what you payed for your house or what you spent fixing it up. That is true but it works both ways. The market also doesn’t care if you can personally afford the house you want even though you could have afforded it 5 years ago. We live in a global world. Demand for homes in San Diego (especially on the coast)
is not just from SD wage earners.“As a result, only what is really limited (real estate, gold, oil, etc.) increases in price, but not consumer goods because there’s a nearly infinite supply of low-wage labor.”
– Watch out for food. Corn has doubled in price in a few months due to the higher anticipated demand for ethanol. Chicken farmers are moaning and groaning. Cheap labor only goes so far with food you need land. The supply of farmland is decreasing in this country. We likely can’t import corn for $2 a bushel. The price of food is going up.
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