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pemeliza
Participant“FWIW, don’t let that house price get you down — from your first link. In the comments, it says that there were foundation and window issues. My guess is that there were some pretty expensive repairs that needed to be done. Maybe figure at least $100K more, at least, if it was in good condition.”
The type of problems described here are routine for older houses. Of course if the windows were not replaced in 80-100 years, for example, you could say that there are problems with the windows. But again that is the case for the majority of houses around here especially in that price range. The listing also mentions an updated kitchen which may have happened after the 2001 sale.
I agree that the economy was far better in 2000-2001 than it is now even though the tech bubble was in the middle of an implosion.
On the other hand, interest rates were much higher as well so on a monthly payment basis today’s buyer is getting a much better deal than the 2000-2001 buyer as long as they plan on staying put.
“If there is any one “homeowner” group that I do feel sorry for, it’s the ones who bought prior to 2002/2003, using a 20% down payment, and who might not have known there was a bubble.”
Ultimately how this group of homeowner’s reacts to the lower prices may be the key to the direction of the market over the next several years. If they start to bail in mass that could trigger another leg down. If they were prudent they could probably refinance into a 15 year fixed rate, lower their monthly payment, and ride out the storm. It remains to be seen how many of them were prudent and didn’t take out their equity during the bubble years.
Participant“FWIW, don’t let that house price get you down — from your first link. In the comments, it says that there were foundation and window issues. My guess is that there were some pretty expensive repairs that needed to be done. Maybe figure at least $100K more, at least, if it was in good condition.”
The type of problems described here are routine for older houses. Of course if the windows were not replaced in 80-100 years, for example, you could say that there are problems with the windows. But again that is the case for the majority of houses around here especially in that price range. The listing also mentions an updated kitchen which may have happened after the 2001 sale.
I agree that the economy was far better in 2000-2001 than it is now even though the tech bubble was in the middle of an implosion.
On the other hand, interest rates were much higher as well so on a monthly payment basis today’s buyer is getting a much better deal than the 2000-2001 buyer as long as they plan on staying put.
“If there is any one “homeowner” group that I do feel sorry for, it’s the ones who bought prior to 2002/2003, using a 20% down payment, and who might not have known there was a bubble.”
Ultimately how this group of homeowner’s reacts to the lower prices may be the key to the direction of the market over the next several years. If they start to bail in mass that could trigger another leg down. If they were prudent they could probably refinance into a 15 year fixed rate, lower their monthly payment, and ride out the storm. It remains to be seen how many of them were prudent and didn’t take out their equity during the bubble years.
ParticipantI’m sorry to hear that CAR but the bright side for you is that the short sales are now comps which should drive prices down.
I just saw this short sale close in my neighborhood for 50k below the 2001 price. Prices are definitely weak these days but this is the first time I saw something close that low in the sweet spot of the price range (mid 500’s) in north mission hills.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110017710-4331_Hortensia_St_San_Diego_CA_92103
These short sales suggest we are back to 2000-2001 nominal pricing in some of the prime areas. It is hard to believe given where interest rates are now compared to back then. This is getting ugly.
p.s. It is interesting to note a similar home in north mission hills went for 750k two years ago and it was a REO.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/4438-Trias-St-92103/home/5279340
ParticipantI’m sorry to hear that CAR but the bright side for you is that the short sales are now comps which should drive prices down.
I just saw this short sale close in my neighborhood for 50k below the 2001 price. Prices are definitely weak these days but this is the first time I saw something close that low in the sweet spot of the price range (mid 500’s) in north mission hills.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110017710-4331_Hortensia_St_San_Diego_CA_92103
These short sales suggest we are back to 2000-2001 nominal pricing in some of the prime areas. It is hard to believe given where interest rates are now compared to back then. This is getting ugly.
p.s. It is interesting to note a similar home in north mission hills went for 750k two years ago and it was a REO.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/4438-Trias-St-92103/home/5279340
ParticipantI’m sorry to hear that CAR but the bright side for you is that the short sales are now comps which should drive prices down.
I just saw this short sale close in my neighborhood for 50k below the 2001 price. Prices are definitely weak these days but this is the first time I saw something close that low in the sweet spot of the price range (mid 500’s) in north mission hills.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110017710-4331_Hortensia_St_San_Diego_CA_92103
These short sales suggest we are back to 2000-2001 nominal pricing in some of the prime areas. It is hard to believe given where interest rates are now compared to back then. This is getting ugly.
p.s. It is interesting to note a similar home in north mission hills went for 750k two years ago and it was a REO.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/4438-Trias-St-92103/home/5279340
ParticipantI’m sorry to hear that CAR but the bright side for you is that the short sales are now comps which should drive prices down.
I just saw this short sale close in my neighborhood for 50k below the 2001 price. Prices are definitely weak these days but this is the first time I saw something close that low in the sweet spot of the price range (mid 500’s) in north mission hills.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110017710-4331_Hortensia_St_San_Diego_CA_92103
These short sales suggest we are back to 2000-2001 nominal pricing in some of the prime areas. It is hard to believe given where interest rates are now compared to back then. This is getting ugly.
p.s. It is interesting to note a similar home in north mission hills went for 750k two years ago and it was a REO.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/4438-Trias-St-92103/home/5279340
ParticipantI’m sorry to hear that CAR but the bright side for you is that the short sales are now comps which should drive prices down.
I just saw this short sale close in my neighborhood for 50k below the 2001 price. Prices are definitely weak these days but this is the first time I saw something close that low in the sweet spot of the price range (mid 500’s) in north mission hills.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110017710-4331_Hortensia_St_San_Diego_CA_92103
These short sales suggest we are back to 2000-2001 nominal pricing in some of the prime areas. It is hard to believe given where interest rates are now compared to back then. This is getting ugly.
p.s. It is interesting to note a similar home in north mission hills went for 750k two years ago and it was a REO.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/4438-Trias-St-92103/home/5279340
Participant“People are picking bottoms all the way down, and at some point, prices become so tempting, that a critical mass of people/investors (who no longer need to be “rich”) enter the market and support prices when they reach fundamental levels. ”
Prices have reached fundamental levels versus rent in most of the country but yet they continue to drop. You certainly don’t have to be “rich” to buy a house in Vegas, Phoenix, or for that matter much of San Diego county.
“Not only have they succeeded in dragging this recession/depression out for far more years than necessary,”
Your chief point seems to be that if we would have let the markets crater then we would be doing fine by now. The fact that foreclosures are still piling up and prices are still dropping in smoldering areas like Vegas and Phoenix seems to suggest that you are underestimating the consequences of a complete deflationary debt collapse.
BTW, I am not suggesting that artificially supporting the market was a good idea and I agree that it was largely done to transfer losses to the taxpayer.
Regardless of how the band-aid is taken off, we are going to be dealing with the aftermath of this binge for a long time to come.
Participant“People are picking bottoms all the way down, and at some point, prices become so tempting, that a critical mass of people/investors (who no longer need to be “rich”) enter the market and support prices when they reach fundamental levels. ”
Prices have reached fundamental levels versus rent in most of the country but yet they continue to drop. You certainly don’t have to be “rich” to buy a house in Vegas, Phoenix, or for that matter much of San Diego county.
“Not only have they succeeded in dragging this recession/depression out for far more years than necessary,”
Your chief point seems to be that if we would have let the markets crater then we would be doing fine by now. The fact that foreclosures are still piling up and prices are still dropping in smoldering areas like Vegas and Phoenix seems to suggest that you are underestimating the consequences of a complete deflationary debt collapse.
BTW, I am not suggesting that artificially supporting the market was a good idea and I agree that it was largely done to transfer losses to the taxpayer.
Regardless of how the band-aid is taken off, we are going to be dealing with the aftermath of this binge for a long time to come.
Participant“People are picking bottoms all the way down, and at some point, prices become so tempting, that a critical mass of people/investors (who no longer need to be “rich”) enter the market and support prices when they reach fundamental levels. ”
Prices have reached fundamental levels versus rent in most of the country but yet they continue to drop. You certainly don’t have to be “rich” to buy a house in Vegas, Phoenix, or for that matter much of San Diego county.
“Not only have they succeeded in dragging this recession/depression out for far more years than necessary,”
Your chief point seems to be that if we would have let the markets crater then we would be doing fine by now. The fact that foreclosures are still piling up and prices are still dropping in smoldering areas like Vegas and Phoenix seems to suggest that you are underestimating the consequences of a complete deflationary debt collapse.
BTW, I am not suggesting that artificially supporting the market was a good idea and I agree that it was largely done to transfer losses to the taxpayer.
Regardless of how the band-aid is taken off, we are going to be dealing with the aftermath of this binge for a long time to come.
Participant“People are picking bottoms all the way down, and at some point, prices become so tempting, that a critical mass of people/investors (who no longer need to be “rich”) enter the market and support prices when they reach fundamental levels. ”
Prices have reached fundamental levels versus rent in most of the country but yet they continue to drop. You certainly don’t have to be “rich” to buy a house in Vegas, Phoenix, or for that matter much of San Diego county.
“Not only have they succeeded in dragging this recession/depression out for far more years than necessary,”
Your chief point seems to be that if we would have let the markets crater then we would be doing fine by now. The fact that foreclosures are still piling up and prices are still dropping in smoldering areas like Vegas and Phoenix seems to suggest that you are underestimating the consequences of a complete deflationary debt collapse.
BTW, I am not suggesting that artificially supporting the market was a good idea and I agree that it was largely done to transfer losses to the taxpayer.
Regardless of how the band-aid is taken off, we are going to be dealing with the aftermath of this binge for a long time to come.
Participant“People are picking bottoms all the way down, and at some point, prices become so tempting, that a critical mass of people/investors (who no longer need to be “rich”) enter the market and support prices when they reach fundamental levels. ”
Prices have reached fundamental levels versus rent in most of the country but yet they continue to drop. You certainly don’t have to be “rich” to buy a house in Vegas, Phoenix, or for that matter much of San Diego county.
“Not only have they succeeded in dragging this recession/depression out for far more years than necessary,”
Your chief point seems to be that if we would have let the markets crater then we would be doing fine by now. The fact that foreclosures are still piling up and prices are still dropping in smoldering areas like Vegas and Phoenix seems to suggest that you are underestimating the consequences of a complete deflationary debt collapse.
BTW, I am not suggesting that artificially supporting the market was a good idea and I agree that it was largely done to transfer losses to the taxpayer.
Regardless of how the band-aid is taken off, we are going to be dealing with the aftermath of this binge for a long time to come.
Participant“Japan experience deflation because their prices were so expensive relative to the rest of the world.”
Interesting point.
Participant“Japan experience deflation because their prices were so expensive relative to the rest of the world.”
Interesting point.
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