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NotCranky
ParticipantFormer, You sound like someone we need back in San Diego!
My kid says I am fat…Can you talk to him?ParticipantAlex..
You might try addressing specific people that you have a problem with rather than making what is pratically blanket accusations. There is a variety of experience and knowlege manifested in the posts here. I have checked out other housing bubble blogs and some are full of sore losers, chicken littles and outright sociopaths. This one is balanced to a pretty fair degree. You are proping up your logic in the most faulty of ways. Using other people’s errors on the timing of the market doesen’t rule out or rule in anything. I think even Rich Has admitted to being surprised at the staying power of the boom and this is one smart guy.
At the very least you could try to get out of the past and analyze what is apparent in the market currently. By the way, I timed the market perfectly this time for what it is worth. No, I used the market pefectly,in a small way for the last 12 years.Then timed it and made adjustments.If I were a genius like you apparently expect everyone to be….well…could’ve should’ve would’ve never caught a mouse… I think the perfect place to be is on the sidelines unless you are bullet proof with equity and or cash and(not or) love having your own place or hate renting. In any case there doesn’t look to be much upside to starting now. The only thing good about the market is fixed interest rates. I do hope they last forever and thats probably just wishful thing too.ParticipantWGU
!!!Warning Females should not read this post!!!
From what I see she will come back to you in a couple months at the longest, if you let her. If you are like I was when I was young you will let her no matter what anybody says. So if you do… go for what you want and set boundaries when you want to. She will notice and ask you “whats up?” when she realizes she doesn’t have you wrapped around her finger or other anatomical location. Then tell her you are giving her the best relationship she deserves because there is no one new for you yet. Believe me she won’t be back and you wont care. In my case all I had to do was say I didn’t want to stay up late on weekdays when I had to go to work the next day and she didn’t. She asked me what I got back with her for.(she came looking for me and came on strong) I was a little less diplomatic than I am suggesting you be at that point in time but it was effective. I think I said I was in it for the A$$.
Best wishesOOPS! I hope this isn’t too racy such that I get kicked off the blog? I’d gladly tone it down? I think it is neat that you all are giving this young guy some love.
ParticipantThanks SD Realtor,
Some Bloggers are so hostile when a guy makes a mistake. Thanks for the decency in your reply to my error.ParticipantRealtor
If you are referring to my post when you say this …“Thus if you create income brackets then assign a maximum mortgage payment based on that income. Don’t factor in size of the home, location, or desire.” ..You don’t understand what I said…
The strategy I described has the would be Buyer calculating what they are shopping with and then what they can shop for.I never suggested factoring in the size of the home, location, or desire except examples of realistic expectations.I would do that after I figure what I could afford and wouldn’t buy if my realistic parameters were left wanting.
Considering over all debt load is a no brainer but the income to purchase price estimates I gave were used during the old conservative debt/income ratios lenders used to use for average buyer’s. I don’t recommend more leverage on a personal home just because debt loads are low at the time of purchase.Do you? As far a stretching goes I agree with you. I was making a joke anyway.Lenders won’t give you more money because you are a non reproductive individual. Buying less than what one can afford fully employed seems prudent if cash isn’t laying around everywhere, especially in a falling market.
If you were answering someone else,excuse me.Realtor
I just realized there are two realtors in here and you are probably answering the first poster. The other Realtor had already anwered him so thats where the confusion came from.
ParticipantLooking at it a different way….
Old lending standards, rough estimates.
10% down
60k=225k purchase price
80k=275K purchase price
100-120k= 375K purchase
north of 120K= Pay cash
I am guestimating these things based on the memory of an old house payment calculator thingy that was new 10 years ago. I looked for it but can’t easily find it. It costs 40K a year to live modestly(read,get by) with a wife and a couple of kids now, before rent or mortgage, and it is getting more expensive by the minute! I don’t think 60K will mean anything in San Diego County for SFR unless you are a buddist munk with a penchant for a house in the ghetto.Roomates could help though,been there done that. I think 60K income is definitely Average Condo in Average Location even in the next trough of the cycle.
So if you are entertaining what I am saying at all try analyzing what 225k,275k or 375k might get you if your income is in those brackets and you don’t have a ton of cash. Of course, stretching is safer if you are steril.ParticipantHiggy
It looks like you are looking at the number of new listings.
Sales are down too but the listings are declining at a faster rate than sales are across the board month to month. Some sort of equilibrium would be reached if this continued.Probably won’t though. Sales will probably start declining at a faster rate than inventory from here (give or take a month). At a casual glance it seem like the rate of properties going into pending is slowing dramatically this month .(someone with more free time than me can check it?) Anyway the inventory boom of a year or so ago shows that inventory in itself isn’t a big enough factor to bust this market. It has go to be about foreclosures and interest rates/lending standards as seems to be the consensus on the site now.ParticipantDrew,
I really hope that you can get back to Bay Park. It sounds good for you. Sincerely. Maybe I can low-ball a specific house for you to soften up the sellers? Perhaps we can all team up and take turns.
RussParticipantRustico
I used to own in Normal Hts.,South of Adams and bought there(twice, 1992&1995) because I knew that being sandwiched between Hillcrest and Kensington couldn’t be a bad move and it was dirt cheap then as most of you know. I used to say it wasn’t a neighborhood watch area it was a watch your neighbor area. Not liking guns, in the first house I kept an axe by the side of the bed at night . Then the transvestite across the street was stabbed to death by her boyfriend who was mad when he found out after several years that he had been duped.(from across the street I was duped too!) As soon as I had my first son I wanted the hell out and fast. The gentrification wave had already done wonders and the new 39th street park practically speaking, put us more in Kensington than lots of houses actually in Kensington.It is still not and never will be an ideal place for a family. Hopefully the good location is enough to keep it from going completely down the tubes again. What is nice about the marginal neighborhood thing is that people talk with each other, they have to. I did make friends in the neighborhood which is more than I can say for any suburb I have ever lived in.ParticipantRustico
I didn’t think about the noise from traffic and from jets.The noise would probably be acceptable. Jets practically shaking the house off the foundation like they do in parts of the city on the south side of the airport would be too much. It does seem that the almost constant breeze through the area would clear the car exhaust from the I-5 out almost as fast as it enters the enviornment.
For anyone who might know: Can kids get into Point Loma High School if they live somewhere in or around Bay Park? Seems like that would be a better opportunity than Clairemont or Madison.
ThanksParticipantI would live in Bay Park….for all the reasons you all have mentioned.It looks like the most hassle free, amenity providing areas of the county. There is a great YMCA just down Morena on Friars Road. Mission bay park $ Dog beach right down the hill, Old Town downtown & Balboa Park to the left, La jolla to the right. Its the best location for work and recreation opportunities in the county. I do wonder about air quality that close to the I-5. I never could afford it as a renter or a buyer until now,Thanks to hard work and bubble money. For now I have reasons for living someplace else…at least for several years
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