[Myriad]

[quote=EconProf]Let’s revisit my claim of ‘ominous trends” for San Diego and CA I mentioned that got a lot of criticism. CA’s now declining population is a result of many “push factors” that are causing people and companies to make the very exensive decision to leave.[/quote]

It’s yet to be seen how many people have actually moved out of state vs just moving in state.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-citylab-how-americans-moved/

Declining native-born population maybe. But the country needs more younger immigrants to offset the aging population and to pay for SSA/Medicare. Immigrants from Asia are highly likely to go to CA and TX – so the population won’t decline. Just won’t grow as fast as TX, AZ, or FL. But CA is still way better than most NE states, so you’ll get people moving away from those states also.
The CA tax burden is much lower than those states.

Costs in SF/SJ/LA/SD are much higher relative to other tier 1 cities in other states. But eventually the main cities in TX, AZ, FL prices will move up also, negating the cost differential over time.

[Myriad]

People complain that CA is an expensive state to retire, but I wonder how many have actually done the math.
Yes, if you’re young and looking to buy, it’s expensive. And if you’re moving to CA for retirement, it’s also expensive (relative to other states/cities).

But… if you’re been here for 30 years and owned your home for that long, and saved decently, it’s really not that bad.
So you have the following compared to other states:
– lower property tax
– no tax on SSA income
– slightly higher income tax rate (for $60-100k taxable income) compared to states with taxes. Moderately higher for states w/o income tax: you’ll pay more in property tax/sales tax/or other expenditures for things that are not covered by taxes.

How many people are actually paying the higher 10-13% state tax rate in retirement? And if you are, you can probably afford to “retire” to another state and keep your SD property as a second property (espeically now that you can move your property tax base to another property).

So the key here is to reduce your taxable income by shifting as much to Roth before you get SSA. It does take a little planning ahead of retirement

[Myriad]

[quote=phaster]
…Commercial real estate broker Adrian Glover has consulted on hotel transactions for decades, representing buyers and sellers. He said the city paid too much for the two Residence Inn properties.

“Hotels are worth probably 30 percent to 40 percent less than they were a year ago because of COVID-19,” he said. “This should have come out in the due-diligence period” of the escrow process.

Based on capitalization rates reflected in the CBRE appraisals — the measure of annual returns on investment — the city will lose about $866,000 a year in hotel taxes, plus $100,000 or more in annual income for the tourism marketing district.[/quote]

Yep, the city should stop buying RE – they are f*** terrible at it.
I looked up the prices as the Marriott Mission Valley was up for sale a while back. It was $242k/key in April 2019. Who pays more for a Residence Inn, only politicians do.
[img_assist|nid=27317|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1200|height=600]

[Myriad]

St. George seems like an interesting place to visit and maybe invest in RE. WSJ just had a article that discussed this.
Just not the place for me – too isolated for air travel and not enough ethnic food (SD is bad enough for Chinese food).
I’ve traveled all over and lived in CA, NY, CO, and HI.

I read the marketwatch “where to retire” and basically it’s geared to more non-minority readers.
I mean I could “live” in a lot a places for work, but in retirement, SD is a good trade.

[Myriad]

[quote=utcsox]Tough but fair. Residents in the Blue states shall be grateful that they are getting vaccines at all!!![/quote]

Why do Red states need the vaccine. Supposedly Covid is just like the flu and herd immunity is ok.

https://ktla.com/news/california/as-covid-19-surges-l-a-county-hospitals-prepare-to-limit-care-if-needed/

So maybe we’ll get the death panels after all.

But I would like the see some financial analysis to see how much the US will save in SSA and Medicare by killing off people aged 65+ a few years earlier than expected. Especially if they people don’t get to go to a hospital if they are over 75 and are expected to die at home.

[Myriad]

[quote=spdrun]We never had a hard lockdown in the US … even in NYC in March-May, there were no travel restrictions to speak of, parks were open, many stores were open, de-facto outdoor dining and bars existed.

Sweden didn’t have it right. South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan had it right … “soft” lockdowns combined with contact-tracing via apps, zealous testing programs, widespread mask use, etc. I don’t get why so many people are getting their titties in a bind about mask use here in the USA — it’s the socially least costly way of controlling viral spread.[/quote]

Right, if people wore a mask, followed social distancing, limited large gatherings, SD wouldn’t have had a 2nd shutdown of dining.

As as shitty at the CCP is, they were serious about the lockdowns. People couldn’t leave their apartments, any travel outside was severely restrained, and people were constantly monitored.
(not advocating it, just stating the facts here).
People in the US should have taken it really seriously back in Feb, when China locked down a city right before Chinese NY. If they were taking that action AND allowing the world to find out, it was really f**king bad.

[Myriad]

[quote=FlyerInHi]The health care establishment is worried about the system collapsing under a flood of cases. Hospitals don’t even have testing kits.
[/quote]

When time time comes, the solution is to not allow anyone over a certain age (like 65) into a hospital.
Either they stay at home or you move them into a separate facility somewhere else. Basically just like Italy and China.

[Myriad]

[quote=The-Shoveler]In Italy they are performing triage to see who gets treatment (who they think they can save)
not enough staff or equipment[/quote]

I guess that’s one way to reduce future pension obligations for Italy.

[Myriad]

[quote=FlyerInHi]We so do deserve Trump.[/quote]

But if it the virus has a serious spread in FL and AZ, Trump can claim he solved the entitlement cost growth of SS and Medicare.

[Myriad]

[quote=The-Shoveler]So I love how L.A. declares a emergency because of coronavirus then says there is no reason to panic, in the next sentence they say they expect more cases and possible community spread LOL.

DON’T PANIC !![/quote]

Hah, makes me think of this scene from Airplane 2

[Myriad]

[quote=PCinSD][quote=Myriad]
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-cut-cdcs-budget-democrats-claim-analysis/story?id=69233170
I may have gotten ahead of myself on the actual budget cuts. Most of them are proposed by the administration but overruled by Congress.
But in general, the administration has been doing everything in the Executive Branch’s power to attack agencies that are not pro-business/pro-Trump, etc. Actions include not fill positions, when filling positions, adding political appointees with no relevant experience, overruling experts, etc.[/quote]

Huh. Imagine that. Yet you threw it out there as fact. Why is that? Where did you get the info from that made you feel comfortable enough to believe it, and claim it here?

Just curious. Fox News?[/quote]

I take back my earlier statement. The Trump administration did cut funding. Not sure why I couldn’t find it over the weekend.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cuts-programs-responsible-for-fighting-coronavirus-2020-2
https://fortune.com/2020/02/26/coronavirus-covid-19-cdc-budget-cuts-us-trump/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/31/us-coronavirus-budget-cuts-trump-underprepared
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-to-scale-back-work-in-dozens-of-foreign-countries-amid-funding-worries-1516398717

I want to government to spend wisely too, but cutting discretionary funds for health isn’t going to do anything for the budget deficit. The biggest spending is in Medicare, SS, and Defense.

[Myriad]

The HOAs for condos can be a factor. I have one that went from $205 to $280.
The depreciation helps offset profit from impacting your taxes.

[Myriad]

[quote=flu]Interesting. It probably isn’t my cup of tea, but sounds like it’s working for you well and that’s great.

Dumb question. So does your investment in the hotel mean you own a room in that hotel (the condo-hotel model) or is it some other arrangement. Just like to hear about different things.[/quote]

Well it’s been ok so far. The true test is when the properties are sold to see how much/little capital gain/loss you’ll get.
No, I’m an equity share partner in the hotel (It’s a Hilton hotel in FL). I get quarterly dividends from the profit.

Here’s an example of the distribution structure – pretty typical from what I’ve seen with various % and levels.
Distributable proceeds from operating cash flow are to be distributed in order as follows:
1. Senior debt service payments;
2. Then, to all deal-level investors (including the Company) pro-rata and pari-passu until investors have earned an 8.0% annual cumulative preferred return (compounded monthly);
3. Thereafter, 30.0% to the Sponsor and 70.0% to deal-level investors.

Distributable proceeds from capital events are to be distributed in order as follows:
1. Paydown of senior loan and any associated prepayment costs;
2. Then, to all deal-level investors pro-rata and pari-passu until investors have earned an 8.0% annual cumulative preferred return (compounded monthly);
3. Then, 30.0% to the Sponsor and 70.0% to deal-level investors until investors have earned a 20% annual internal rate of return (compounded monthly);
4. Thereafter, 40% to the Sponsor and 60% to deal-level investors.

[Myriad]

Yes, I’m invested in a hotel in FL (one of the large chains). You have to be picky as a small investor. You’re not going to get the deals a large real estate company would. But if you invest in growing markets like TX, FL, CO, Nashville, TN, you’ve benefiting from the demographic changes. However you have to worry about how well the sponsor performs and how well a platform manages the various sponsors.
REITs are definitely a good way to go, just direct investment gives you a more specific focus and different diversification.
I’m in a few deals, but am now waiting it out to see how they really perform. One is building a multi-unit condo building in Williamsburg in Brooklyn. That one is a little more speculative.
The benefit is that you still get some of the tax benefits (K-1, passive investment gain/loss) without the hassle of managing property. But as I mentioned, most of the commercial investments all get 5 year interest only loans, and then roll over to a new loan later – so definitely interest rate sensitive.
One of the ones I considered, but didn’t invest due to limited capital and overwhelming demand was the SD Mission Valley Marriott. Which is somewhat typical – the really good deals (or the ones that appear to be) generate a lot of interest.

[Myriad]

I was worried about the refinancing wave for commercial. But looks like rates will be low for the next year. Keeping cash for now. Things are pretty pricey across many asset classes.

[Author]

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