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September 27, 2007 at 2:54 PM in reply to: Fairbanks Ranch vs. Santaluz vs. Cielo vs. rest of Rancho Santa Fe #86145
jztz
ParticipantThis thread reminds me of a NYtimes article on those “barely rich” (with a net worth of $5 to $15M) who feel financially pressured in the bayarea – that is, can’t quite get what they really want, and still live a stressed life with lots of pressure (commnute, work hours, etc). I wonder how many of them will relocate to SRF now that we’ve established that SD is so much nicer and cheaper! Plus, these nice areas of SD are also destinations for second homes of the “truly rich”!
So are there many people relocating away from the bay area? Am curious.
ParticipantI love the comments regarding “STJ” and “NFP” wives! Maybe it’s true that more women make decisions based on feelings (relative to men), but that’s what make the world an interesting place.
For someone who asked – this is basically Meyers-Briggs personality typing. It’s not easy to explain it in detail, but I’ll give it a try.
S(sensing) v.s. N (intuitive) — how people processing informations. Sensing people use their senses, and tend to be concrete and focuses on specific. Intuitives are more about ideas, concepts and tend to be abstract and focus on principles. These two types often would have communication problems because literally they’re on different wavelength.
T(Thinking) v.s. F (Feeling) – how people makes decisions. Thinking people are rational and make decisions based on facts and logic; Feeling people make decisions based on, you get it, emotional signals. Thinking people generally are more in engineering, science, business; while Feeling in marketing, psychology, nursing, etc.
P(Perceiving) v.s. J (Judging) – how people deal with time. Perceiving type acts like observers, and they move along time without too much a hurry (they procrastinate and often be late). Judging type likes to bring things to conclusions and more likely to be goal oriented.
Another dimension is I (Introvert) v.s. E (Extrovert) – where people tend to get energy. Introvert brings the world into their head to process, and tend to get exhausted after socialzing; extravert embrace the world, and get energized from being with other people.
With these 4 characteristics, there are 16 combinations. It’s fasicinating stuff. I re-read my M-B stuff several years back, and you really can see how a person functions if you observe well.
And, yes, I believe that more women are feeling type than thinking type. To me, it’s a good thing if you think about it. Wouldn’t be BORING had it been otherwise?
ParticipantI love the comments regarding “STJ” and “NFP” wives! Maybe it’s true that more women make decisions based on feelings (relative to men), but that’s what make the world an interesting place.
For someone who asked – this is basically Meyers-Briggs personality typing. It’s not easy to explain it in detail, but I’ll give it a try.
S(sensing) v.s. N (intuitive) — how people processing informations. Sensing people use their senses, and tend to be concrete and focuses on specific. Intuitives are more about ideas, concepts and tend to be abstract and focus on principles. These two types often would have communication problems because literally they’re on different wavelength.
T(Thinking) v.s. F (Feeling) – how people makes decisions. Thinking people are rational and make decisions based on facts and logic; Feeling people make decisions based on, you get it, emotional signals. Thinking people generally are more in engineering, science, business; while Feeling in marketing, psychology, nursing, etc.
P(Perceiving) v.s. J (Judging) – how people deal with time. Perceiving type acts like observers, and they move along time without too much a hurry (they procrastinate and often be late). Judging type likes to bring things to conclusions and more likely to be goal oriented.
Another dimension is I (Introvert) v.s. E (Extrovert) – where people tend to get energy. Introvert brings the world into their head to process, and tend to get exhausted after socialzing; extravert embrace the world, and get energized from being with other people.
With these 4 characteristics, there are 16 combinations. It’s fasicinating stuff. I re-read my M-B stuff several years back, and you really can see how a person functions if you observe well.
And, yes, I believe that more women are feeling type than thinking type. To me, it’s a good thing if you think about it. Wouldn’t be BORING had it been otherwise?
ParticipantI love the comments regarding “STJ” and “NFP” wives! Maybe it’s true that more women make decisions based on feelings (relative to men), but that’s what make the world an interesting place.
For someone who asked – this is basically Meyers-Briggs personality typing. It’s not easy to explain it in detail, but I’ll give it a try.
S(sensing) v.s. N (intuitive) — how people processing informations. Sensing people use their senses, and tend to be concrete and focuses on specific. Intuitives are more about ideas, concepts and tend to be abstract and focus on principles. These two types often would have communication problems because literally they’re on different wavelength.
T(Thinking) v.s. F (Feeling) – how people makes decisions. Thinking people are rational and make decisions based on facts and logic; Feeling people make decisions based on, you get it, emotional signals. Thinking people generally are more in engineering, science, business; while Feeling in marketing, psychology, nursing, etc.
P(Perceiving) v.s. J (Judging) – how people deal with time. Perceiving type acts like observers, and they move along time without too much a hurry (they procrastinate and often be late). Judging type likes to bring things to conclusions and more likely to be goal oriented.
Another dimension is I (Introvert) v.s. E (Extrovert) – where people tend to get energy. Introvert brings the world into their head to process, and tend to get exhausted after socialzing; extravert embrace the world, and get energized from being with other people.
With these 4 characteristics, there are 16 combinations. It’s fasicinating stuff. I re-read my M-B stuff several years back, and you really can see how a person functions if you observe well.
And, yes, I believe that more women are feeling type than thinking type. To me, it’s a good thing if you think about it. Wouldn’t be BORING had it been otherwise?
ParticipantHaven’t watched it, but will (have watched MM’s other documentaries and like them). Yes, he dramatizes a topic, hence brings debate and discussion and awareness.
US healthcare system is highly in-efficient for the money it spends. It’s now about 15% of GDP, and easily double the per capital spending of the next country (Japan?), and we achieve less – lower life expectancy, higher infant mortality rate, 45 to 50M of uninsured …
Market economy works if consumers have a good sense of price/value ratio. But with healthcare, that’s very difficult if not impossible. How do you know how much to pay for a cancer drug? What if you’re in urgent pain? Do you know your doctors enough to know the right price to pay him/her? Also, empirical evidence show that people undervalue life when it’s their money (private contractors going to Iraq), but overvalue life when insurances pay for it. In fact, in market economy (or a private payer system like the US) prices tend to be much higher. Other countries, such as Japan and European ones, have country wide price controls and periodical price drops for medicine and other medical equipment. That’s why all pharma companies want to market/distribute their drugs in the US because of high prices.
HMOs are just a sad way to control the rampant cost increases when prices are set by manufacturers (pharma companies, etc, etc) and those with insurance think that they should be entitled to all medical means regardless of costs.
Fundamental reform in healthcare for sure is needed, and I hope that Hillary will get it done the second time she tries.
ParticipantHaven’t watched it, but will (have watched MM’s other documentaries and like them). Yes, he dramatizes a topic, hence brings debate and discussion and awareness.
US healthcare system is highly in-efficient for the money it spends. It’s now about 15% of GDP, and easily double the per capital spending of the next country (Japan?), and we achieve less – lower life expectancy, higher infant mortality rate, 45 to 50M of uninsured …
Market economy works if consumers have a good sense of price/value ratio. But with healthcare, that’s very difficult if not impossible. How do you know how much to pay for a cancer drug? What if you’re in urgent pain? Do you know your doctors enough to know the right price to pay him/her? Also, empirical evidence show that people undervalue life when it’s their money (private contractors going to Iraq), but overvalue life when insurances pay for it. In fact, in market economy (or a private payer system like the US) prices tend to be much higher. Other countries, such as Japan and European ones, have country wide price controls and periodical price drops for medicine and other medical equipment. That’s why all pharma companies want to market/distribute their drugs in the US because of high prices.
HMOs are just a sad way to control the rampant cost increases when prices are set by manufacturers (pharma companies, etc, etc) and those with insurance think that they should be entitled to all medical means regardless of costs.
Fundamental reform in healthcare for sure is needed, and I hope that Hillary will get it done the second time she tries.
ParticipantJust a reflection that this board is populated by males. Women/wives are blamed for all ill-advised money decisions too (in other threads). In real life, that’s hardly true.
ParticipantSHILOH – it’s GOOD JOBS and GOOD Saving habits, like Dejam said. SD transplant – thanks for the run down. Interesting. Indeed, some really rich foreigners (who’ve make their money outside of SD area) park some money here. In fact, some rich Americans do the same – I’ve heard that there are quite a few second homes in RSF belonging to billionairs else where in this country. But they don’t inflate general housing price here.
Talking about 2nd generation Asians, I read an article on OC Register this weekend profiling 2nd generation Asians who follow the tradition of helping to support their parents in their old age. Growing up with that expectation (to support your parents) certainly motivates you to seek a good job. I know that from personal experience. Once a realtor sugguested that I should hit my parents for any downpayment, like a lot of people do. I just laughed.
Back to the topic — foreign born professionals who make a living in SD are part of the local economy, their money is not foreign money. Real “foreign money” (from rich foreigners or corrupted sources) probably on the margin pop up prices in certain neightborhoods, but I doubt that is a big influencer for SD housing prices in general.
ParticipantSomeone told me that countrywide made a loan to her cousin – option ARM loan with stated income. And then she said – aren’t they supposed to be more conservative?
That’s precisely the point. If countrywide is so much more “solid” than subprime, and we know what type of loans they made, then we know what’s yet to come!
March 18, 2007 at 11:06 AM in reply to: Sand Piles, Chaos Theory, Subprime and The Yen Carry Trade #47950ParticipantI was surprised to read this sober account on Union Tribute:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070318/news_lz1b18calbrea.html
It is interesting to ponder this: subprime is going down in a free spiral, we know there are more to come, yet data from the field says that activity is picking up and people are buying again…
March 17, 2007 at 6:13 PM in reply to: A.H. LENDERS: how many people in San Diego will be fired? #47919ParticipantLEND is trading based on its prospect of survival. And its survival is based on liquidity at this point. That’s what selling $2.7B does, even at a discount, it gave LEND liquidity. It’s like pawn your valuables at a discount to meet a payment so that you are not forced into bankruptcy.
Margin calls – in this instance I think means that investors asked orginator (LEND) to put up more money/cash to help with increased loan losses.
Regarding the stock jump, even if LEND doesn’t earn anything, once it gets liquidity, then it should trade based on its book value. Right now it’s trading about .2x book with book/share at $34. Suppose write down takes its book value to $17, then the company can still be potentially worth $17, or perhaps more if it survives. This is like someone has cars and houses but no cash, and is facing a big cash payment (a liquidity squeeze). If nobody buys his assets (cars and houses), he’s facing bankruptcy. If he can sell his asset (LEND’s loan portfolio) at good enough prices, then after the big cash payment, he may still be in the black. I don’t know LEND’s financials in detail, so this is just a generic answer on why its stock jump once it sold its portfolio.
ParticipantAs far as tax deduction is concerned, it has to do with
a) your marginal tax rate for the mortgage portion. It may not be your highest tax braket.
b) whether AMT comes into play for you.And I assume that you’ve already itemized before a mortage due to state tax.
The max tax saving is total deductible amount (interest + property tax) x your marginal tax rate. Your realized saving might be lower due to the above factors.
ParticipantFor me, the best quote from the article is this:
“There are delayed triggers in many of these investment vehicles and that is delaying the recognition of losses,” Charles Peabody, founder of Portales Partners, an independent research boutique in New York, said. “I do think the unwind is just starting. The moment of truth is not yet here.”
I believed that there are delays in the housing market itself – homeowners using lump sum cash from equity withdrawal to make up for cash flow shortfall; and appraisal value going down maybe slower than the market price; etc, etc. All these means that when the problems finally come through, it’ll be bigger than first anticipated.
Also, in today’s Barron’s magazine, in Alan Abelson’s UP & DOWN Wall Street, he mentioned that:
“Paul Kasriel, Northern Trust’s crack economy watcher… points out that the massive corporate buybacks and … private equity investment, together with mortgage-equity withdrawal, they’ve helped fund the $503 billion deficit that household ran last year. Said house-holds, either directly or indirectly via mutual funds or pension funds, he reckons, were net sellers of stocks in 2006”.
This is the first time I heard that US households collectively is a net stock seller in 2006. If true, then almost for sure a recession will come soon. US households collectively basically are liquidating their assets to support their current consumption. All the financial “innovations” such as mortgage securitization just help to build this huge bubble while maintaining a seemingly safe front. This, combined with more inequality in income distribution, means that sooner or later it’ll become a political problem.
ParticipantBobbyD — can you tell us how many houses are built in those luxury tract home communities (that you referred to) in the last 3 years? Just wonder the size of the problem if it were to suffice. Do you get the sense of an average buyer’s profile (profession, age, etc)?
I wonder if some people right now are covering mortgages and expensese not from income, but from previous lump sum home equity extractions. That is, a homeowner sold previous house, instead of put all his profit as downpayment, he put the cash aside and take out a large mortage beacuse credit is easy. Now if someone made $200K profit, and his monthly housing related expense totals $8K, but he can only realistically support 4K from his salary, he’s $4K short. But his $200K profit can support him for 50month – that’s 4 years. Of course, if housing prices start to go down meaningfully, he sure will get nervous before he exhausts his previous gains (or equity extraction from a HELC loan). I guess my point is that people who bought these high end homes may have more room to manuver to buy them sometime before the cash flow issues really force them to give up. We’ll see. 2007 and 2008 will be critical years.
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