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hipmatt
ParticipantHow many homes are on the market in SD county?
you guys can help me here on this one… i dunnoHow many homes in SD county burned down? lets say 1500..
Of the 1500 homes that burned down, how many were for sale? lets again over estimate and say 1 out of 4.So.. we can see that there will be at most, a temporary reduction of inventory by about… 375 homes, max… hmm not exactly going to change market dynamics one way or the other.
What this will do is cost city and county tax dollars, slow business sales and growth via closures, delays, displacement, etc., and sadly cost those who have lost their homes additional expenses that they may not ever be reimbursed for. (insurance can’t cover every expense that one accrues due to structure fire right?)
I can’t see this helping an already hurt housing or job market much. The few construction jobs gained by these tragedies will be a wash at best to the losses accrued by other San Dieagans one way or another.
ParticipantHow many homes are on the market in SD county?
you guys can help me here on this one… i dunnoHow many homes in SD county burned down? lets say 1500..
Of the 1500 homes that burned down, how many were for sale? lets again over estimate and say 1 out of 4.So.. we can see that there will be at most, a temporary reduction of inventory by about… 375 homes, max… hmm not exactly going to change market dynamics one way or the other.
What this will do is cost city and county tax dollars, slow business sales and growth via closures, delays, displacement, etc., and sadly cost those who have lost their homes additional expenses that they may not ever be reimbursed for. (insurance can’t cover every expense that one accrues due to structure fire right?)
I can’t see this helping an already hurt housing or job market much. The few construction jobs gained by these tragedies will be a wash at best to the losses accrued by other San Dieagans one way or another.
ParticipantTemecula market is RETAINING its value! ….Sarcasm right?
ParticipantTemecula market is RETAINING its value! ….Sarcasm right?
October 10, 2007 at 11:21 AM in reply to: So you still think that a 50% correction or more is crazy??? #87812ParticipantI have no doubts now that 50% off or more is in the bag throughout most of socal, Las Vegas, Phoenix, etc. I have time, and cash, and will wait out the drama, however I do have another question…
Will the imminent housing crash ruin the economy? One part of me is saying that those who foreclose, may possibly end up spending more money in the economy once they abandon their insane mortgage payments. what are your thoughts on this? I already see it happening. I have a friend that threw in the keys to his home, found a nice rental at a great price, and now has more money to spend?
On the contrary though, jobs are and will be lost. Especially RE related like mortgage officers, RE agents, construction, landscape, pool, paint, etc. These people will obviously be spending less in our consumer driven economy?
your thoughts are welcomed
October 10, 2007 at 11:21 AM in reply to: So you still think that a 50% correction or more is crazy??? #87817ParticipantI have no doubts now that 50% off or more is in the bag throughout most of socal, Las Vegas, Phoenix, etc. I have time, and cash, and will wait out the drama, however I do have another question…
Will the imminent housing crash ruin the economy? One part of me is saying that those who foreclose, may possibly end up spending more money in the economy once they abandon their insane mortgage payments. what are your thoughts on this? I already see it happening. I have a friend that threw in the keys to his home, found a nice rental at a great price, and now has more money to spend?
On the contrary though, jobs are and will be lost. Especially RE related like mortgage officers, RE agents, construction, landscape, pool, paint, etc. These people will obviously be spending less in our consumer driven economy?
your thoughts are welcomed
ParticipantThis bill doesn’t attempt to prevent foreclosures, keep home prices high, or even keep people in their homes. Instead it almost encourages people to throw in the keys to their home.. hey you won’t even have to pay the taxes like you thought, might as well just walk away.
Since most lenders aren’t renegotiating loans, can we assume that this is a win for the RE bears?
ParticipantThis bill doesn’t attempt to prevent foreclosures, keep home prices high, or even keep people in their homes. Instead it almost encourages people to throw in the keys to their home.. hey you won’t even have to pay the taxes like you thought, might as well just walk away.
Since most lenders aren’t renegotiating loans, can we assume that this is a win for the RE bears?
ParticipantI wouildn’t rule out the above scenario. I think that 10 minutes from Temecula, for sure, but the markets tend to over correct, so it is possible, combine the housing slowdown with a possible recession and it is likely. remember the past, no housing correction has ever bottomed in 2.5 years. Its been historically more like 4-6. The current run up in prices was the longest and by far the largest in US history. To think that it will be all over by 2009 may be naive.
ParticipantI wouildn’t rule out the above scenario. I think that 10 minutes from Temecula, for sure, but the markets tend to over correct, so it is possible, combine the housing slowdown with a possible recession and it is likely. remember the past, no housing correction has ever bottomed in 2.5 years. Its been historically more like 4-6. The current run up in prices was the longest and by far the largest in US history. To think that it will be all over by 2009 may be naive.
Participantmgubnyc1 .. absolutely right…
I don’t care if you think houses can never get that low in socal, but the sheer amount of inventory up here is staggering. When the inventories start to return to normal levels, we may then see a bottom in sight. Right now, that day is obviously far away. I anticipate that after the bulk of the resets these next few months, more and more people will walk away from their homes.
Temeculaguy.. no I will not buy now. I have my patience, my rental is working out, and I expect bigger declines in the next few years, I may buy sooner than that though. I’m looking at a nice single story in Temecula on a decent lot for about 300k. It will happen, I don’t want a McMansion, I don’t want to heat, cool, and clean 4000sqft. 2000-2700 would be fine. There is still a chance that we may leave socal if things work out that way, but my whole family is here, so probably not. What are your plans?
ParticipantAre you forgetting a few things?
Home affordability is still very low.
Food, energy, and healthcare costs are skyrocketing.
Long term interest rates are rising.
Most of the goods that we buy from abroad will eventually cost more as the dollar falls.I don’t see how this paints a rosy picture for the consumer, which this economy is based on.
Participantthanks John, let us know what you find out and your assessment.
Participant10 year and 30 year treasury yields rose again a bit today.. hmm..foreclosures are up ALL over CA big time. I just heard on KFI 640 that in the San Fernando Valley they are up 400% and rising.
Its almost getting trendy to foreclose. Inventory is really high and getting higher. The media is reporting lots of bad housing news all over the country. Temecula /Murrieta is getting absurd. I’m starting to see declines, but still homes are way overpriced. I very confident that the housing recession is still ON despite a big rate cut, weak bailout legislation, and the blind optimism and blatant lying from the spinners on wall street and in the RE industry.
Morgan Stanley and CarMax had really bad news today. All of this combined with the high inflation risk and falling dollar remind me that there is only so much that the gov. can do to save things. Equities markets may be strong for a while, but I can’t see any possibility of an RE turnaround.
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