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October 10, 2007 at 9:42 AM #87768October 10, 2007 at 9:42 AM #87773
kewp
ParticipantYou know, in all the MSM blurbs I read about the housing crash, there is always some comment like ‘recovery late ’08, maybe early ’09’.
Really now.
I have to wonder, where will all the buyers come from to pick up the record amounts of inventory? Particularly, when there are a record amount of home owners already?
The FB’s are going to have no money and cr@p credit, so they are going to be lucky to find someone to rent to them.
The small pool of willing buyers with good credit and cash in the bank are gonna wait till the bottom. We ain’t stupid.
Am I missing something?
October 10, 2007 at 9:44 AM #87770JWM in SD
Participant“The small pool of willing buyers with good credit and cash in the bank are gonna wait till the bottom. We ain’t stupid.
Am I missing something?”
No, my horizon is 4 years. Cash and time are my friends.
October 10, 2007 at 9:44 AM #87775Participant“The small pool of willing buyers with good credit and cash in the bank are gonna wait till the bottom. We ain’t stupid.
Am I missing something?”
No, my horizon is 4 years. Cash and time are my friends.
October 10, 2007 at 10:21 AM #87784bob2007
ParticipantTwo things I’m not clear on:
1. JWM: “This will launch a vicious cycle that feeds on it self. As comps get slaughtered, an incresing number of homeowners that might have otherwise weathered the storm will get dragged into this mess.”
Who are you referring to? If they are “weathering the storm”, the what difference do the comps make? It seems like the referral to these type of people on this board categorize them as having affordable mort. and want to live in their house long term.
2. patientlywaiting: “People aren’t going to buy unless they can see substantial appreciation in a 5 year time frame.”
I don’t think this is true. Someone has asked the question before about where the desire to move every 5 years came from. I don’t know, but I people in general don’t need to move every 5 years. Housing should not be a revenue generator, ideals will return to buying a house as a place to live.
October 10, 2007 at 10:21 AM #87789ParticipantTwo things I’m not clear on:
1. JWM: “This will launch a vicious cycle that feeds on it self. As comps get slaughtered, an incresing number of homeowners that might have otherwise weathered the storm will get dragged into this mess.”
Who are you referring to? If they are “weathering the storm”, the what difference do the comps make? It seems like the referral to these type of people on this board categorize them as having affordable mort. and want to live in their house long term.
2. patientlywaiting: “People aren’t going to buy unless they can see substantial appreciation in a 5 year time frame.”
I don’t think this is true. Someone has asked the question before about where the desire to move every 5 years came from. I don’t know, but I people in general don’t need to move every 5 years. Housing should not be a revenue generator, ideals will return to buying a house as a place to live.
October 10, 2007 at 10:41 AM #87778NotCranky
Participant“You know, in all the MSM blurbs I read about the housing crash, there is always some comment like ‘recovery late ’08, maybe early ’09’.”
“Am I missing something?”
If we have a radical alignment downward in prices we could see a “relative” recovery. That is relative to today 2009 could be an improved market from the numbers standpoint but even if it isn’t there “could” be “good to buy” properties out there…maybe even some deals as good as it will ever get.
I am not waiting or recomending waiting until there is wide proof of a “recovery” to buy. I didn’t in the 90’s and I won’t do that now. So many people I know did fantastic with investments and personal residences they purchased in 92′-98′ with 98′, or there abouts, being the official bottom of the market.
I read the article JWM has posted on this thread and the recent stuff Rich, Artifact, sdr and others have posted here it is very clear that that macaroni is hitting the fan. It isn’t really worth looking for “good to buy” properties yet, at least for average home buyers and average small time investors like me. I know you guys already know that. I am just saying it because I don’t want to get accused of being a shill for the above paragraphs.
Oh yes, I like to joke about a 50% correction but I don’t expect we will see a broad 50% correction as long as we are a first world country.Maybe the relative “wealth factor”. of the house comes down that much. I have always said that I expected dramatic “chunks” to come off starting when we had that converstion on sdr’s thread,the charts and stats seem to being showing it.I take a wait and see attitude on the final answer as to the overall correction. Applying what someone here said about the stock market, there are too many ways to be wrong.
October 10, 2007 at 10:41 AM #87783Participant“You know, in all the MSM blurbs I read about the housing crash, there is always some comment like ‘recovery late ’08, maybe early ’09’.”
“Am I missing something?”
If we have a radical alignment downward in prices we could see a “relative” recovery. That is relative to today 2009 could be an improved market from the numbers standpoint but even if it isn’t there “could” be “good to buy” properties out there…maybe even some deals as good as it will ever get.
I am not waiting or recomending waiting until there is wide proof of a “recovery” to buy. I didn’t in the 90’s and I won’t do that now. So many people I know did fantastic with investments and personal residences they purchased in 92′-98′ with 98′, or there abouts, being the official bottom of the market.
I read the article JWM has posted on this thread and the recent stuff Rich, Artifact, sdr and others have posted here it is very clear that that macaroni is hitting the fan. It isn’t really worth looking for “good to buy” properties yet, at least for average home buyers and average small time investors like me. I know you guys already know that. I am just saying it because I don’t want to get accused of being a shill for the above paragraphs.
Oh yes, I like to joke about a 50% correction but I don’t expect we will see a broad 50% correction as long as we are a first world country.Maybe the relative “wealth factor”. of the house comes down that much. I have always said that I expected dramatic “chunks” to come off starting when we had that converstion on sdr’s thread,the charts and stats seem to being showing it.I take a wait and see attitude on the final answer as to the overall correction. Applying what someone here said about the stock market, there are too many ways to be wrong.
October 10, 2007 at 10:53 AM #87796ParticipantRustico,
Thank you for your insight.
The thing the worries me about the current situation is that during the last five years our whole economy has basically been running backwards. Instead of housing trailing a booming economy, loose lending standards fueled a booming housing market which itself *became* the economy.
So I’m very interested in how this will play out in the reverse. Especially in San Diego.
October 10, 2007 at 10:53 AM #87801ParticipantRustico,
Thank you for your insight.
The thing the worries me about the current situation is that during the last five years our whole economy has basically been running backwards. Instead of housing trailing a booming economy, loose lending standards fueled a booming housing market which itself *became* the economy.
So I’m very interested in how this will play out in the reverse. Especially in San Diego.
October 10, 2007 at 11:03 AM #87800ParticipantYou bet,
This is way to grandiose for me to say but I will do it anyway. We want to be good investors, not prognosticators beyond the scope of what we are trying to accomplish. Something about forest and trees follows I guess?
October 10, 2007 at 11:03 AM #87805ParticipantYou bet,
This is way to grandiose for me to say but I will do it anyway. We want to be good investors, not prognosticators beyond the scope of what we are trying to accomplish. Something about forest and trees follows I guess?
October 10, 2007 at 11:21 AM #87812hipmatt
ParticipantI have no doubts now that 50% off or more is in the bag throughout most of socal, Las Vegas, Phoenix, etc. I have time, and cash, and will wait out the drama, however I do have another question…
Will the imminent housing crash ruin the economy? One part of me is saying that those who foreclose, may possibly end up spending more money in the economy once they abandon their insane mortgage payments. what are your thoughts on this? I already see it happening. I have a friend that threw in the keys to his home, found a nice rental at a great price, and now has more money to spend?
On the contrary though, jobs are and will be lost. Especially RE related like mortgage officers, RE agents, construction, landscape, pool, paint, etc. These people will obviously be spending less in our consumer driven economy?
your thoughts are welcomed
October 10, 2007 at 11:21 AM #87817ParticipantI have no doubts now that 50% off or more is in the bag throughout most of socal, Las Vegas, Phoenix, etc. I have time, and cash, and will wait out the drama, however I do have another question…
Will the imminent housing crash ruin the economy? One part of me is saying that those who foreclose, may possibly end up spending more money in the economy once they abandon their insane mortgage payments. what are your thoughts on this? I already see it happening. I have a friend that threw in the keys to his home, found a nice rental at a great price, and now has more money to spend?
On the contrary though, jobs are and will be lost. Especially RE related like mortgage officers, RE agents, construction, landscape, pool, paint, etc. These people will obviously be spending less in our consumer driven economy?
your thoughts are welcomed
October 10, 2007 at 11:29 AM #87814HereWeGo
ParticipantOne part of me is saying that those who foreclose, may possibly end up spending more money in the economy once they abandon their insane mortgage payments.
I speculated that may be the case some time ago. The tightening of credit resultant from mass foreclosures would offset that benefit, IMO.
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