So you still think that a 50% correction or more is crazy???

[little lady]

I rented during the start of the last downturn, and I vaguely recall the rents being a little lower. The house I rented was I believe 925$. I think they may have dropped 50 to 100$. Not a huge amount. My mortgage payment was 1100$ when I bought in 1995.

[Raybyrnes]

patientlywaiting

“I think that a 50% nominal drop is very likely.”

I think you need a refresher on statistics. If you think a 50% drop is likely, what then would be unlikely drop, 75% or 80%. A 50% drop is statisticly an unlikely event. Not an impossible event but highly unlikely. It would fall as an oulyer in any sort of standard deviation curve.

Mount Soledad is collapsing and it is not seeing this type of drop so I think your numbers are off.

[Raybyrnes]

patientlywaiting

“I think that a 50% nominal drop is very likely.”

I think you need a refresher on statistics. If you think a 50% drop is likely, what then would be unlikely drop, 75% or 80%. A 50% drop is statisticly an unlikely event. Not an impossible event but highly unlikely. It would fall as an oulyer in any sort of standard deviation curve.

Mount Soledad is collapsing and it is not seeing this type of drop so I think your numbers are off.

[cr]

Guys you’re forgetting all the immigrants that will come in and buy $500,000 homes, and the increase in employment of nurses, teachers, bar tenders, and hotel maids that will clearly support this market to a turn around sometime early 2008.

Seriously though, I’m betting 4-5 conservatively, 7-10 non-best case scenario.

The buyer/owner sentiment will follow prices and perpetuate the correction. I honestly think we will see an over correction. Why? (asks the person who thinks people here pull opinions out of their arse) Look at the last 2 down turns, and adjust for inflation.

Still disagree? Then go buy a house today, and I’ll buy one in 4 years and we’ll see who pays more.

[cr]

Guys you’re forgetting all the immigrants that will come in and buy $500,000 homes, and the increase in employment of nurses, teachers, bar tenders, and hotel maids that will clearly support this market to a turn around sometime early 2008.

Seriously though, I’m betting 4-5 conservatively, 7-10 non-best case scenario.

The buyer/owner sentiment will follow prices and perpetuate the correction. I honestly think we will see an over correction. Why? (asks the person who thinks people here pull opinions out of their arse) Look at the last 2 down turns, and adjust for inflation.

Still disagree? Then go buy a house today, and I’ll buy one in 4 years and we’ll see who pays more.

[kewp]

I think you need a refresher on statistics.

This is predicting the future and has nothing to do with statistics.

If the trend follows whats happened historically, then a reversion to the mean is very likely. And thats a 50% drop at least.

[kewp]

I think you need a refresher on statistics.

This is predicting the future and has nothing to do with statistics.

If the trend follows whats happened historically, then a reversion to the mean is very likely. And thats a 50% drop at least.

[kev374]

If we use history as a guide we can say that this downturn will be much more severe than the early 90s downturn. During that time prices plummetted 20-25% nominal. So using a 1.5 multiplier you get at least 30% nominal decline. That is the MINIMUM. I don’t see how it cannot go down by at least that much, there is nothing right now to prop up the market. But the decline may be delayed by the guerrila government intervention.

[kev374]

If we use history as a guide we can say that this downturn will be much more severe than the early 90s downturn. During that time prices plummetted 20-25% nominal. So using a 1.5 multiplier you get at least 30% nominal decline. That is the MINIMUM. I don’t see how it cannot go down by at least that much, there is nothing right now to prop up the market. But the decline may be delayed by the guerrila government intervention.

[bob007]

a drop is likely. guessing the decline is as futile as predicting the original bubble.

[bob007]

a drop is likely. guessing the decline is as futile as predicting the original bubble.

[mixxalot]

When SD prices come back to earth

Then I will buy my modest 2bedroom/2bath townhome. It should be by 2012 since average incomes not that high in the area.

[mixxalot]

When SD prices come back to earth

Then I will buy my modest 2bedroom/2bath townhome. It should be by 2012 since average incomes not that high in the area.

[JC]

Just for fun, here is a close to 50% drop: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076060789-4509_Idaho_St_8_San_Diego_CA_92116

How they EVER thought they could get 350k for this is beyond me…

[JC]

Just for fun, here is a close to 50% drop: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076060789-4509_Idaho_St_8_San_Diego_CA_92116

How they EVER thought they could get 350k for this is beyond me…

[Author]

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