[hipmatt]

Dude, I just refied, bought a new pebble tech pool, and a new Hummer on 22’s bro, I so badass!!! Living the dream!!

[hipmatt]

I don’t think anyone should be targeting the bottom of the market anytime this year or even in 08. Once again, as history shows us, these things take years, usually about 4-6 years. So its been one year so far, so at least look for another 2.5 years to get close to the bottom. Yes, even if the guys on cnbc are telling you that the market has bottomed.

For those who have purchased lately with 20% down congrats, you will be much better prepared to ride out a large downturn in your homes value, and you are in the minority, most people I know of still use 100% financing. Hopefully this trend will change, and the concept of saving(s) will return.

[hipmatt]

I agree with kev374!

[hipmatt]

Temecula pros and cons
Pros:
-great weather, I mean GREAT weather (many sunny days)
-one of least smoggy cities in socal(afternoon breeze common)
-general topography is attractive(natural rolling hills/trees)
-relatively close to mountains, beaches, deserts, big cities(LA/SD)
-nice wineries(kind of)and old town(kind of)
-pretty clean and safe
-seems to be great for families and kids(tons of
schools/activities/sports, good schools)
-many churches
-decent amount of parks
-best city planning of all nearby cities(clearly not perfect)
-some nice dinning options
-still some ranches/equestrian left
-Pechanga Casino?(mostly a big CON for me)
-busy mall

Cons:
-growing way too fast
-city traffic is horrible& murrieta even worse
-freeway traffic horrible at times(215 is the worst)
-expensive homes(by nature this may end soon)
-limited singles activity/nightlife
-most careers are in retail/education/Guidant Corp./real estate:( ,very few college degree or corporate type jobs here
-most people with real jobs commute to SD/OC/LA/Riverside and with BAD traffic getting worse and pricey gas getting pricier this is a BIG Con!!!
-even though many, many dinning options, waits can still be over an hour
-Pechanga Casino – causes traffic, gambling addictions, alcoholism, promotes the evil and sin in many(just my .02)
-rat race is here to stay(people in New York City appear to be more mellow)
-rude/materialistic/overly vain/fake/snobby population growing at an alarming rate. The keeping up with the Jonse’s reality show should be filmed here.
-not the quiet ranch like town it once was
-mass transit hasn’t really arrived yet?
-very inconsiderate drivers and many times dangerous. Local drivers are the worst and rudest I’ve seen, yet they seem to be ignored by local PD especially Murrieta PD, but you will get pulled over for tinted windows.
-busy mall is packed full of “Mall Rats” who feast on energy drinks and vanity.
-culturally not that diverse
-Medical facilities are sub-par, packed, and just suck. Best local hospital is in Fallbrook. The two in Murrieta are bad.
-no local rivers and the few local lakes we have are filthy/crowded or not suitable for recreation
-closest 4 year college over 35 min away
-closest community college is 20 min away and is mediocre
-DMV, Costco, IN’n’OUT are BERSERK and require extreme patience almost all the time!!
-even though the city is growing fast and many people live here, it seems that your business still becomes everyone’s business

[hipmatt]

BuyerWillEPB

I agree 100% and its hilarious.. yellow hummers, so true!!!!

[hipmatt]

First of all I agree with both Diego Mamani and masayako. I have been in the Temecula Valley for over 16 years. I am familiar with that area, and personally don’t like it. The taxes are high, I believe the HOA is high as well, its at the edge of Murrieta close to Wildomar. I don’t see the appeal, nor the rational on why to pay ridiculous prices for a home thats worth maybe $250k 5 years ago.

You said you would be going 100% financed, ughhh thats financial suicide. I don’t understand how people think they can swing a $3500 month payment, but they can’t afford a dime when it comes to closing costs or down payment.

You said:
unless you can predict that this 500k house will sell for $300k in two years..but i don’t see things falling tha badly…

do you guys?

I think most here do, maybe more like 4-5 years though, certainly I do.

JohnAlt91941 was right about the math, yours is way off. Not only would you be paying over $1100 more to own that home, imagine if it did drop down to $300, you would have also lost at least $200k.

[hipmatt]

In Temecula/Murrieta, I don’t see how anything can pick up in the spring. If anything, I think that those who couldn’t get out at the end on 06 are gonna re list and the already high inventory will blow even higher. There are sooo many homes for sale and rent here, its not even funny. When you consider all the new homes, resales, short sales, and foreclosures, there is sooo much to choose from. There wouldn’t be enough buyers to buy them all if people COULD afford these ridiculous prices, but no, they can’t.
Don’t puss out guys because the silly stock market looks like its doing well. You know the fundamentals and the history, and thats all that matters. This market is way overcooked. Don’t buy into like getting priced out of the market. People in the construction industry are loosing jobs. This is the beginning of the end of the worst credit bubble the world has EVER seen. Let the blind lead the blind, and laugh at us all day long, but its better up here on the fence, than it is on sinking ship.

[hipmatt]

Wow, great link, good videos, and great summary of the current situation. I really like this Peter Schiff. Refreshing to see someone like Peter actually get some airtime on CNBC, thats the biggest surprise. Usually its a bunch of tools who think the economy is flawless. Thanks for the link!

[hipmatt]

I think that summary was well written, and accurate. I home there is a big correction, as there should be, I don’t wish suffering upon anyone, but many people threw logic out the window on this one, they became emotional, and stupid. They bought with no money down, int. only loans, adj. rates, and then refied to all hell. They bought cars, trucks, toys, even more homes with their equity. They paid absolutely ridiculous prices for their mediocre tract homes. The taxes that they now pay are even more ridiculous. The home they just bought in 05 for $500K, should easily be worth $700k in a year or two, just like the last two years, right?

They did not think logically, they forgot history. They became impatient. They said to hell with saving up money, who saves, when you can take a loan out even for your 20% down? Some were duped by friends, family, even agents, and lenders. They saw at least one person make a small fortune on owning their own home, and did everything in their powers to duplicate them. Only the monthly payment mattered, not the amount owed, but still they now “owned their own home”. They felt sorry for the renters in the community, while the renters wondered, “what’s the difference, between me and them? I pay less per month than they do, and live in a nicer home. How can they own a home, when they owe all or more than what it is worth? With an interest only loan, they don’t even pay down the principle balance, but what do I know? I just rent.”

I don’t think as many of these people will spent a lifetime paying of their bad investment, instead, I believe most in that position will just eventually walk away from their homes. Call me cold, but I won’t feel too bad for them.

[hipmatt]

Not to sound mean, but becoming an agent right now is possibly the worst timing possible. Not only is the population of RE agents at an all time high, after 10 years of home appreciation, loans that anyone can get, and stories of millionaire agents and thus new agents jumping on the easy money bandwagon, there are currently way too many available, especially in socal.

I personally know about 10 RE agents (friends and acquaintances), not related to me being in the business, and if I count other agents, probably another 40. Many of them are in the process of a career change, due to lack of buyers. Investors and speculators were 30-50% of many agents business, and now, thats all but gone.

Loan agents are dropping like flies, and they should. IMHO, these are the some of sleeziest members of our society. They have expected easy money this whole time, and now thats ending. I would not recommend becoming an agent anytime soon.

[hipmatt]

Check out the san diego craigslist for rentals, tons in there, most with pics.

[hipmatt]

Then they shouldn’t have allowed interest only loans, they shouldn’t have allowed 100% financing either, because banks will collapse left and right. Also, if rates were higher, people would be more likely to save their money, and earn a higher interest rate, and they would be less likely to borrow money at a higher interest rate.

Housing prices would then be much more consistent, and less volatile(they wouldn’t be so inflated, so yes, they would be much lower) and anyone with some common sense and patience, would be able to save up for a reasonable down payment, buy a home at a reasonable price, and have a reasonable mortgage in which the PRINCIPLE debt actually gets paid off.

[hipmatt]

What does this have to do with the crashing of the housing market?

[hipmatt]

if that didn’t work, or doesn’t make sense, try this instead.
http://contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

[hipmatt]

I’d say 20-25 % is nice, more like 40-50%.

[Author]

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