Temecula area Phenomenon

[golfproz]

$200K for a 2000sq/ft+ 3 car, that’s very optimistic. As much as I would like to see that (although it would make my current home worth squat), I just can’t see them getting that low. $100 a sq/ft is possible on a big home but on smaller homes I just have a hard time seeing them go that low. Even in Perris or Highland I think that might be hoping for too much. I’d sure like to see them get that cheap though. I could retire, play golf and let the wife work (hope she doesn’t see this).

I picked up one of the cheaper 32″ Vizios at Costco to hold me over. For $600 it’s not a bad TV.

[VoZangre]

Temecula Guy..

advice on making her go away…

keep quoting Lao Tsu…

” I make no sense even to myself.”

jajajajajajajaja

too damned funny…

ps- The Secret …
see wikepedia entry for ” magical thinking “

[VoZangre]

Temecula Guy..

advice on making her go away…

keep quoting Lao Tsu…

” I make no sense even to myself.”

jajajajajajajaja

too damned funny…

ps- The Secret …
see wikepedia entry for ” magical thinking “

[hipmatt]

I wouildn’t rule out the above scenario. I think that 10 minutes from Temecula, for sure, but the markets tend to over correct, so it is possible, combine the housing slowdown with a possible recession and it is likely. remember the past, no housing correction has ever bottomed in 2.5 years. Its been historically more like 4-6. The current run up in prices was the longest and by far the largest in US history. To think that it will be all over by 2009 may be naive.

[hipmatt]

I wouildn’t rule out the above scenario. I think that 10 minutes from Temecula, for sure, but the markets tend to over correct, so it is possible, combine the housing slowdown with a possible recession and it is likely. remember the past, no housing correction has ever bottomed in 2.5 years. Its been historically more like 4-6. The current run up in prices was the longest and by far the largest in US history. To think that it will be all over by 2009 may be naive.

[patientrenter]

Temeculaguy, your story-telling skills are better than the average chimp. Keep posting!

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Temeculaguy, your story-telling skills are better than the average chimp. Keep posting!

Patient renter in OC

[temeculaguy]

All these questions, I mostly tell jokes, hardly the sage but I’ll give it my all and start the press conference.

mgu, it’s sitting in the 280-310 range right now after incentives but including about 5 1/2 fixed, granite, fridge, w&d, a year of association, etc. Where it is going, I dunno but I placed a wager on it going down so I am biased. It was 340-380 about 6-9 months ago. Keep in mind these are for alley homes or cluster driveways in that size range, traditional sfr’s will add 30-50k more. There are attached ones but with 2 car garages that might be better for an investment that will be in the 200-250 range, I haven’t looked closely at them lately. It’s a bargain at 100-125x rent and rent for all these are 1500-2000, so it’s not there yet but it has hit 150x rent and in some cases slightly below, it seems the smaller the better the ratio, the rent market is a little weird, 3500 sq ft and 1500 sq ft have only about a 25% spread in rent here because there are tons of big houses and very few condos and apartments, speaking specifically of South Teme.

happy renter, welcome, the shadows are no fun so chime in whenever. Based on the size you are looking at sycamore, laurel or cottonwood. They haven’t got too much standing inventory but it’s worsening for them and the price drops pile on monthly. Wolf has a lot of foreclosures coming so early next year the pressure will mount and you should get what you want, peek at Morgan and Redhawk, lots of inventory piling up there and they have some advantages over wolf, but I like wolf too, 2008 is going to be a fun time to shop. And yes, when SD starts to fall, Temecula will get hit again, not sure about another 100k but there will be another hit. South Teme is your safest bet because it’s almost out of land and traffic North is brutal, if you get sub 2003 prices you are probably safe in the long run but that cannot be guaranteed by January. Look at it for personal affordability, if you can get a fixed rate and afford it easily, who cares.

lonestar-good tip, never even heard of laser t.v.’s but you know what will happen, i’ll wait on those for years to come down too. I am clueless to your market and the current prices but you may have to adjust your wish list if you are looking for another 50% off, most of the I.E. has already corrected 25%, maybe 25% more left in the tank at best. I agree with you about hitting the deal button, the point of my earlier post was that when it gets to whatever you wished for it’s still hard to hit it.

golf-I am probably going to do what you did and get the costco vizio special to tide me over and I agree that much below $100 a square can be wishful and gets into the building cost area, there is a floor and it’s just not worth the cost of materials at $50 or maybe $75 a square.

Vo-I already do that regularly and it doesn’t work, while the latest one was above the usual crowd, they usually don’t know what “quoting” means let alone the content, but nice zinger anyway. Truth be told I’m not looking to change my bachelor status anyway, I have way to many faults that I rather like and don’t feel like being scolded for.

Matt-I can be a bear and still think there is a bottom, my diatribe was about not waiting this out too long, at some point in my situation renting for 2k and being able to buy for 1500 after taxes makes sense and it will to others as well, it won’t find support at current prices but eventually it will.

Patient renter- thanks for the love, I always dig your stuff too and it’s comments like that that keep me finding the tangents wherever possible.

[temeculaguy]

All these questions, I mostly tell jokes, hardly the sage but I’ll give it my all and start the press conference.

mgu, it’s sitting in the 280-310 range right now after incentives but including about 5 1/2 fixed, granite, fridge, w&d, a year of association, etc. Where it is going, I dunno but I placed a wager on it going down so I am biased. It was 340-380 about 6-9 months ago. Keep in mind these are for alley homes or cluster driveways in that size range, traditional sfr’s will add 30-50k more. There are attached ones but with 2 car garages that might be better for an investment that will be in the 200-250 range, I haven’t looked closely at them lately. It’s a bargain at 100-125x rent and rent for all these are 1500-2000, so it’s not there yet but it has hit 150x rent and in some cases slightly below, it seems the smaller the better the ratio, the rent market is a little weird, 3500 sq ft and 1500 sq ft have only about a 25% spread in rent here because there are tons of big houses and very few condos and apartments, speaking specifically of South Teme.

happy renter, welcome, the shadows are no fun so chime in whenever. Based on the size you are looking at sycamore, laurel or cottonwood. They haven’t got too much standing inventory but it’s worsening for them and the price drops pile on monthly. Wolf has a lot of foreclosures coming so early next year the pressure will mount and you should get what you want, peek at Morgan and Redhawk, lots of inventory piling up there and they have some advantages over wolf, but I like wolf too, 2008 is going to be a fun time to shop. And yes, when SD starts to fall, Temecula will get hit again, not sure about another 100k but there will be another hit. South Teme is your safest bet because it’s almost out of land and traffic North is brutal, if you get sub 2003 prices you are probably safe in the long run but that cannot be guaranteed by January. Look at it for personal affordability, if you can get a fixed rate and afford it easily, who cares.

lonestar-good tip, never even heard of laser t.v.’s but you know what will happen, i’ll wait on those for years to come down too. I am clueless to your market and the current prices but you may have to adjust your wish list if you are looking for another 50% off, most of the I.E. has already corrected 25%, maybe 25% more left in the tank at best. I agree with you about hitting the deal button, the point of my earlier post was that when it gets to whatever you wished for it’s still hard to hit it.

golf-I am probably going to do what you did and get the costco vizio special to tide me over and I agree that much below $100 a square can be wishful and gets into the building cost area, there is a floor and it’s just not worth the cost of materials at $50 or maybe $75 a square.

Vo-I already do that regularly and it doesn’t work, while the latest one was above the usual crowd, they usually don’t know what “quoting” means let alone the content, but nice zinger anyway. Truth be told I’m not looking to change my bachelor status anyway, I have way to many faults that I rather like and don’t feel like being scolded for.

Matt-I can be a bear and still think there is a bottom, my diatribe was about not waiting this out too long, at some point in my situation renting for 2k and being able to buy for 1500 after taxes makes sense and it will to others as well, it won’t find support at current prices but eventually it will.

Patient renter- thanks for the love, I always dig your stuff too and it’s comments like that that keep me finding the tangents wherever possible.

[happyrenter]

thanks temeculaguy.
what are the pitfalls to watch out for when shopping in the wolf creek area? are all the builders out there pretty good in terms of quality?
What would be the advantages of redhawk/morgan over wolf creek?
you mentioned sub-2003 prices are a safe bet, but it seems that the prices are already sub-2003, did you mean sub 2001?

[happyrenter]

thanks temeculaguy.
what are the pitfalls to watch out for when shopping in the wolf creek area? are all the builders out there pretty good in terms of quality?
What would be the advantages of redhawk/morgan over wolf creek?
you mentioned sub-2003 prices are a safe bet, but it seems that the prices are already sub-2003, did you mean sub 2001?

[bsrsharma]

But I am worried about a scenario where it drops by another 80-100K in the next 2 years and does not ever come back to current price levels in next 15 years.

Whatever may be the current ups & downs in Temecula market prices, in 15 years, the price will definitely double, at least. Beyond, 2011, $ has to sink fast and furiously. Real Estate will then become fashionable once again as a common man's hedge against inflation. You may even encounter another bubble and sell it to retire rich!

[bsrsharma]

But I am worried about a scenario where it drops by another 80-100K in the next 2 years and does not ever come back to current price levels in next 15 years.

Whatever may be the current ups & downs in Temecula market prices, in 15 years, the price will definitely double, at least. Beyond, 2011, $ has to sink fast and furiously. Real Estate will then become fashionable once again as a common man's hedge against inflation. You may even encounter another bubble and sell it to retire rich!

[bearvine]

First time post for a former Temecula homeowner and now a renter in Irvine…Still peruse this great site just to keep tabs. You guys obviously know the area well, and perhaps my two cents may help.

What makes the market in Temecula/Murrieta even more difficult to predict than other markets, is the sheer number of homes for sale and new product that is still entering the market. The inventory will take much longer to get to bearable numbers simply because there are not enough buyers out there. It was a false market, with “investors” buying multiple homes driving up demand and prices, and now that they are gone there are simply not enough jobs in the area or people that want to move there.

There are many aspects that make it a great area to live, but more reasons not to want to be there. The traffic is worse than ever, and five years ago during the push, it was bearable, and people could justify the move. Simply can’t do it now, 2-3 hrs each way, prices still to high, and no loans anyways deter the commuting potential home owner.

In regards to new jobs, not enough, not fast enough, and not enough pay.

If one does not have to commute, has a means of income, Temecula is a great family oriented community and a nice place to live with a flavor unique to all of socal. But if you are in the car all the time, what’s the point?

We enjoyed living in South Temecula, as we owned in Morgan Hill, sold, moved up, saw the writing on the wall and sold and moved out of town. Aside from the RE market indicators, one reason why we moved is I could not see my kids going to high school a block away from a casino. As nice as Pechanga is, and as much good as they do for the area, just wasn’t the environment I wanted for our kids. With that in mind, a caution about Wolf Creek, as historically, living next to a casino is not a good thing.

Bottom line, $100 sq ft is realistic in the best areas, and may even be too high. When the price gets to that point, people will be lured to the area again IMO.

On a side note, put off the home thoughts, treat yourself to a Vizio at Costco (great deal) get HD, and enjoy an unparalleled home entertainment experience.

[bearvine]

First time post for a former Temecula homeowner and now a renter in Irvine…Still peruse this great site just to keep tabs. You guys obviously know the area well, and perhaps my two cents may help.

What makes the market in Temecula/Murrieta even more difficult to predict than other markets, is the sheer number of homes for sale and new product that is still entering the market. The inventory will take much longer to get to bearable numbers simply because there are not enough buyers out there. It was a false market, with “investors” buying multiple homes driving up demand and prices, and now that they are gone there are simply not enough jobs in the area or people that want to move there.

There are many aspects that make it a great area to live, but more reasons not to want to be there. The traffic is worse than ever, and five years ago during the push, it was bearable, and people could justify the move. Simply can’t do it now, 2-3 hrs each way, prices still to high, and no loans anyways deter the commuting potential home owner.

In regards to new jobs, not enough, not fast enough, and not enough pay.

If one does not have to commute, has a means of income, Temecula is a great family oriented community and a nice place to live with a flavor unique to all of socal. But if you are in the car all the time, what’s the point?

We enjoyed living in South Temecula, as we owned in Morgan Hill, sold, moved up, saw the writing on the wall and sold and moved out of town. Aside from the RE market indicators, one reason why we moved is I could not see my kids going to high school a block away from a casino. As nice as Pechanga is, and as much good as they do for the area, just wasn’t the environment I wanted for our kids. With that in mind, a caution about Wolf Creek, as historically, living next to a casino is not a good thing.

Bottom line, $100 sq ft is realistic in the best areas, and may even be too high. When the price gets to that point, people will be lured to the area again IMO.

On a side note, put off the home thoughts, treat yourself to a Vizio at Costco (great deal) get HD, and enjoy an unparalleled home entertainment experience.

[Author]

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