Temecula area Phenomenon

[hipmatt]

I just have noticed that at some of the new home developments in the surrounding areas like Murrieta, French Valley.. the smaller homes are going for as much as the larger ones.

Example: Van Daele Homes.. at the Stratton Point in French Valley, they have a 2400ft single story with 3 car garage.. $349k, they have 4 plans, the largest(plan4) is 4400ft with a 4 car garage.. $351k. There are a ton of the plan 4s available. I noticed a lot of foreclosures surrounding this area, lots of parked cars, and trailers, beat up lawns.

BTW.. this area is falling apart at the seams. I noticed SO many vacant, foreclosed, for rent, or for sale homes, new and resale up here… it will be very bad in this area IMHO. Is it possible that by Feb, March, there will be utter chaos in the 951?

[temeculaguy]

I don’t know the specifics, but from the website the sq footage spread is actually on 1,100. The plan 4 is only 3500 with a 4 car gar, it can get as high as 4400 if you add a bonus room above the garage and kill two of the four car garages. One story homes over 2400 sq ft are more marketable because they are difficult to find and it has a three car garage that is not tandem, the plan 4 is a 2×2 tandem, but still that doesn’t explain why they are the same price.

So what’s the plan Matt? Are you buying out there? After those tracts sell off I don’t think you are going to see any new construction out there for a while, they probably aren’t making much on these at these prices. Chaos is already happening in French Valley, those are almost Texas prices and under $100 a sq ft. Since the past declines in Temecula have appeared about six months after French Valley, I’ll expect those numbers here in March and I would pull the trigger if it was under $100 a square in the location I wanted. I know it will probably get worse but it’s hard to fathom it getting under 300k for over 4000 sq ft new house.

[mgubnyc1]

Just based on the amount of homes available for sale and that will be coming onto the market in the Temecula/Murrieta area, you will see 4,000 sq ft homes selling for under $300,000.
I wouldn’t be surprised if several are sold with pools or a 100K worth of upgrades.
Please correct me if I’m wrong but I think just between Temecula and Murrieta alone there are over 4,000 re-sale homes available at this very moment, not to mention the hundreds of homes the builders have available. Based on this and the fact that more homes are coming to market everyday, once the banks decide they have held onto their repo’s long enough and are ready to take the hit, they will price them to sale all hell is going to break loose and you will pick up 4,000 sq ft homes with pool’s and granite kitchen’s for 300K.
In regards to the Temecula and surrounding area’s you haven’t seen nothing yet!!! the best is still to come.

[waiting hawk]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ymd_hTvCic

[mgubnyc1]

Acually WOW!!! there are over 6,000 listings on the MLS for the Temecula/Murrieta area!!!

is this what a realestate bubble looks like? if not then, I wonder what one looks like~!

[cr]

I saw a news article on a shooting reported in Murrieta the other day. My honest first instinct was to wonder if it is related to tat housing scam blow up or some similar housing mess.

[hipmatt]

mgubnyc1 .. absolutely right…

I don’t care if you think houses can never get that low in socal, but the sheer amount of inventory up here is staggering. When the inventories start to return to normal levels, we may then see a bottom in sight. Right now, that day is obviously far away. I anticipate that after the bulk of the resets these next few months, more and more people will walk away from their homes.

Temeculaguy.. no I will not buy now. I have my patience, my rental is working out, and I expect bigger declines in the next few years, I may buy sooner than that though. I’m looking at a nice single story in Temecula on a decent lot for about 300k. It will happen, I don’t want a McMansion, I don’t want to heat, cool, and clean 4000sqft. 2000-2700 would be fine. There is still a chance that we may leave socal if things work out that way, but my whole family is here, so probably not. What are your plans?

[temeculaguy]

Matt, the problem with the acceleration of decline in our market is that when you set a strike price, like you did, what happens when it gets there way ahead of schedule. You are only about 50-75k off in your desires and that could very well hit inside of six months, what then? Your mind sees all these indicators that it hasn’t hit bottom but at the same time you got your wish and the affordable price for the house you wanted arrived.

I’m with you on the not wanting to maintain 4000 sq ft., been there, done that and can’t say I enjoyed $500 electric bills. My plans are a bit fuzzy, my strike price that I set a year ago already arrived and I chose to renew my lease for another 6 months so I am renting through Feb. 08 and will have to decide again in Jan/Feb. I was looking at unattached 2000-2200 sq ft 3br 3ba but with as small a lot as possible and preferred association maintained front landscaping (I never want to own a mower again) and a community pool. Something in the condo lifestyle without the shared walls. I would also like a three or four car garage. Since there is nothing like that in existence I will be making some compromises but I’ve found some new ones that come close and they are already below what I set my strike price at. At each drop I keep thinking there are more drops in store but at some point in 2008 I’m sure I’ll just do it, my income to housing ratio will be close to 20% and that’s getting silly, plus my after tax price to buy is equal to my rent and the place I will buy will be 25% bigger, for these reasons I don’t think I’ll wait until 2009.

I am a procrastinator, I am currently playing chicken with flat panel t.v.’s. When they were 3,000 I said I would wait until they were half that. When they dropped to 1500 I told myself that I wanted one of the better brands. I went to costco the other day and there were off brands in the $500 range and $1000 gets you a nice one but still i say no, they will be better and cheaper in six months, yet i pay $100 in cable to watch on a $200 T.V. and I have lots of money, I make no sense even to myslef. If I could only extend my level of restraint to my love life, I’d be set. But alas, my achilles heel, each time telling myself that I should not involve myself with a particular woman knowing full well that her lack of intelligence or some other issue will in a month be driving me nuts and i will be on wikipedia looking up new diseases to pretend to have so she will go away. Yet as i type I have a window open to wikipedia and another on web md. I could always just go with the default of fibromyalga, but I think I need to mix it up a little because after reading The Secret i’m afraid I’ll end up with it if I keep using it.

[mgubnyc1]

I know exactly how you feel Temeculaguy, now seeing as you are still procrastinating as I am, hopefully only until sometime in 2008 but before 2009, how much do you think that 2000-2200sqft detached 3br 3bth in a nice assocation maintained envoirment will fall to?
This seems like a great rental investment property, at what price range is something like this a bargin and time to snap them up?

[mgubnyc1]

I know exactly how you feel Temeculaguy, now seeing as you are still procrastinating as I am, hopefully only until sometime in 2008 but before 2009, how much do you think that 2000-2200sqft detached 3br 3bth in a nice assocation maintained envoirment will fall to?
This seems like a great rental investment property, at what price range is something like this a bargin and time to snap them up?

[happyrenter]

Temeculaguy, that was a nice writeup of the current state of temecula market. I’m a silent reader of this forum for last 2 years and I have learn a lot being a rookie first time home-buyer-in-waiting. I greatly appreciate the knowledge/opinion that you share on this board.

I am looking to buy in temecula too in the wolf creek region(SFH 2500-2800 sqft) and see some good discounts there now to point that it is touching th price range I had in mind last year (125-130 /sq.ft.). Due to various reasons we are planning to dive into the market end of the year or by Jan/Feb. We are looking to buy and live in the home for the next 7-10 years at least if not more, so I’m not so much worried if the prices drop another 30-40K over the next couple of years and does a slow recovery over 7-8 years. But I am worried about a scenario where it drops by another 80-100K in the next 2 years and does not ever come back to current price levels in next 15 years.

Looking at some of your previous posts you do indicate that is a possibility (about 100 /sq ft in south temecula).
Is this the worst-case prediction you are making or a high-probability event?
Do you think south temecula prices will bottom around 2001-2002 prices or a high likelihood of falling to 1998-99 prices?
Since temecula seems to be leading the price-cut brigade, do you think there will be another round of steep cuts by builders in Temecula when San Diego market starts ofering steep cuts in say areas like 4S in 1 or 2 years?

your comments are highly appreciated. Thanks

[happyrenter]

Temeculaguy, that was a nice writeup of the current state of temecula market. I’m a silent reader of this forum for last 2 years and I have learn a lot being a rookie first time home-buyer-in-waiting. I greatly appreciate the knowledge/opinion that you share on this board.

I am looking to buy in temecula too in the wolf creek region(SFH 2500-2800 sqft) and see some good discounts there now to point that it is touching th price range I had in mind last year (125-130 /sq.ft.). Due to various reasons we are planning to dive into the market end of the year or by Jan/Feb. We are looking to buy and live in the home for the next 7-10 years at least if not more, so I’m not so much worried if the prices drop another 30-40K over the next couple of years and does a slow recovery over 7-8 years. But I am worried about a scenario where it drops by another 80-100K in the next 2 years and does not ever come back to current price levels in next 15 years.

Looking at some of your previous posts you do indicate that is a possibility (about 100 /sq ft in south temecula).
Is this the worst-case prediction you are making or a high-probability event?
Do you think south temecula prices will bottom around 2001-2002 prices or a high likelihood of falling to 1998-99 prices?
Since temecula seems to be leading the price-cut brigade, do you think there will be another round of steep cuts by builders in Temecula when San Diego market starts ofering steep cuts in say areas like 4S in 1 or 2 years?

your comments are highly appreciated. Thanks

[lonestar2000]

temeculaguy,

Regarding TVs, wait for another year for Laser TVs to arrive. They will blow you away with how much better they look than even Plasmas, and they will drive LCD/Plasma TVs down to even more ridiculous prices. This time next year you’ll be picking up 40 inch LCDs in Wal-Mart for $200.

Regarding the type of house you like (single story, small yard, association lawn, 3 car garage, etc.), I look for nearly the same thing, except for I’d rather put in my own low maintenance front lawn, and enough of a yard in the back to put a nice play yard for our son (no pool, just a slide and aswing set with cool climing surfaces).

Unlike you though, our finances are much more humble, so I’ll have to wait for homes in the IE to drop to the $200,000 range. Already there are some that are close, but not quite what we’re looking for. I live in the San Bernardino area which is a bit too far from Murrieta, but hopefully those huge discounts will start trickling up our way in the next six to twelve months. As soon as a new 2100 square foot house with 3 car garage drops to $200,000 I’m hitting the big red Deal button. 🙂

[lonestar2000]

temeculaguy,

Regarding TVs, wait for another year for Laser TVs to arrive. They will blow you away with how much better they look than even Plasmas, and they will drive LCD/Plasma TVs down to even more ridiculous prices. This time next year you’ll be picking up 40 inch LCDs in Wal-Mart for $200.

Regarding the type of house you like (single story, small yard, association lawn, 3 car garage, etc.), I look for nearly the same thing, except for I’d rather put in my own low maintenance front lawn, and enough of a yard in the back to put a nice play yard for our son (no pool, just a slide and aswing set with cool climing surfaces).

Unlike you though, our finances are much more humble, so I’ll have to wait for homes in the IE to drop to the $200,000 range. Already there are some that are close, but not quite what we’re looking for. I live in the San Bernardino area which is a bit too far from Murrieta, but hopefully those huge discounts will start trickling up our way in the next six to twelve months. As soon as a new 2100 square foot house with 3 car garage drops to $200,000 I’m hitting the big red Deal button. 🙂

[golfproz]

$200K for a 2000sq/ft+ 3 car, that’s very optimistic. As much as I would like to see that (although it would make my current home worth squat), I just can’t see them getting that low. $100 a sq/ft is possible on a big home but on smaller homes I just have a hard time seeing them go that low. Even in Perris or Highland I think that might be hoping for too much. I’d sure like to see them get that cheap though. I could retire, play golf and let the wife work (hope she doesn’t see this).

I picked up one of the cheaper 32″ Vizios at Costco to hold me over. For $600 it’s not a bad TV.

[Author]

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