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VoZangre.
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October 23, 2007 at 8:34 PM #91236October 23, 2007 at 8:56 PM #91209
hipmatt
ParticipantHow many homes are on the market in SD county?
you guys can help me here on this one… i dunnoHow many homes in SD county burned down? lets say 1500..
Of the 1500 homes that burned down, how many were for sale? lets again over estimate and say 1 out of 4.So.. we can see that there will be at most, a temporary reduction of inventory by about… 375 homes, max… hmm not exactly going to change market dynamics one way or the other.
What this will do is cost city and county tax dollars, slow business sales and growth via closures, delays, displacement, etc., and sadly cost those who have lost their homes additional expenses that they may not ever be reimbursed for. (insurance can’t cover every expense that one accrues due to structure fire right?)
I can’t see this helping an already hurt housing or job market much. The few construction jobs gained by these tragedies will be a wash at best to the losses accrued by other San Dieagans one way or another.
October 23, 2007 at 8:56 PM #91231ParticipantHow many homes are on the market in SD county?
you guys can help me here on this one… i dunnoHow many homes in SD county burned down? lets say 1500..
Of the 1500 homes that burned down, how many were for sale? lets again over estimate and say 1 out of 4.So.. we can see that there will be at most, a temporary reduction of inventory by about… 375 homes, max… hmm not exactly going to change market dynamics one way or the other.
What this will do is cost city and county tax dollars, slow business sales and growth via closures, delays, displacement, etc., and sadly cost those who have lost their homes additional expenses that they may not ever be reimbursed for. (insurance can’t cover every expense that one accrues due to structure fire right?)
I can’t see this helping an already hurt housing or job market much. The few construction jobs gained by these tragedies will be a wash at best to the losses accrued by other San Dieagans one way or another.
October 23, 2007 at 8:56 PM #91242ParticipantHow many homes are on the market in SD county?
you guys can help me here on this one… i dunnoHow many homes in SD county burned down? lets say 1500..
Of the 1500 homes that burned down, how many were for sale? lets again over estimate and say 1 out of 4.So.. we can see that there will be at most, a temporary reduction of inventory by about… 375 homes, max… hmm not exactly going to change market dynamics one way or the other.
What this will do is cost city and county tax dollars, slow business sales and growth via closures, delays, displacement, etc., and sadly cost those who have lost their homes additional expenses that they may not ever be reimbursed for. (insurance can’t cover every expense that one accrues due to structure fire right?)
I can’t see this helping an already hurt housing or job market much. The few construction jobs gained by these tragedies will be a wash at best to the losses accrued by other San Dieagans one way or another.
October 23, 2007 at 9:07 PM #91211Raybyrnes
ParticipantMatt,
I see sales of washing machines, refrigerators, furniture, etc coming into play. Figure 50K a house times 2000 homes and you are talkig about 100 million in sales. Can’t see how this is not going to stimulate the economy in the short run.
October 23, 2007 at 9:07 PM #91234ParticipantMatt,
I see sales of washing machines, refrigerators, furniture, etc coming into play. Figure 50K a house times 2000 homes and you are talkig about 100 million in sales. Can’t see how this is not going to stimulate the economy in the short run.
October 23, 2007 at 9:07 PM #91246ParticipantMatt,
I see sales of washing machines, refrigerators, furniture, etc coming into play. Figure 50K a house times 2000 homes and you are talkig about 100 million in sales. Can’t see how this is not going to stimulate the economy in the short run.
October 23, 2007 at 9:21 PM #91215ParticipantThese sales you mention may help Coscto, Home Depot, Sears, etc, but it won’t really be going into the SD economy. I know a few people who will be out of work for weeks. They won’t be compensated. This is lost income. Businesses in SD have shut down for a few days. Commerce has halted in many cases, and may remain slightly slower for a while. All I’m saying is that the gains you can see easily, are easily countered negatively by losses that are harder to see.
BTW at least one Costco had to close its doors for a day or two. They usually sell $800k per day. It effects everyone.
October 23, 2007 at 9:21 PM #91237ParticipantThese sales you mention may help Coscto, Home Depot, Sears, etc, but it won’t really be going into the SD economy. I know a few people who will be out of work for weeks. They won’t be compensated. This is lost income. Businesses in SD have shut down for a few days. Commerce has halted in many cases, and may remain slightly slower for a while. All I’m saying is that the gains you can see easily, are easily countered negatively by losses that are harder to see.
BTW at least one Costco had to close its doors for a day or two. They usually sell $800k per day. It effects everyone.
October 23, 2007 at 9:21 PM #91249ParticipantThese sales you mention may help Coscto, Home Depot, Sears, etc, but it won’t really be going into the SD economy. I know a few people who will be out of work for weeks. They won’t be compensated. This is lost income. Businesses in SD have shut down for a few days. Commerce has halted in many cases, and may remain slightly slower for a while. All I’m saying is that the gains you can see easily, are easily countered negatively by losses that are harder to see.
BTW at least one Costco had to close its doors for a day or two. They usually sell $800k per day. It effects everyone.
October 23, 2007 at 9:28 PM #91217patientlywaiting
ParticipantRay, how dare you see $$$ signs when people are suffering? These fine folks are fathers, mothers, sons, daughters, uncles, aunts, nieces, nephews, Labradors and German shepherds.
(sarcasm off).
The Real Estate boosters will condemn others for discussing the outcome of this fire and questioning what led to this tragedy. But they will also milk it and milk it ’til the cow drops dead. Be sure to listen to the REIC talk in the next few months.
October 23, 2007 at 9:28 PM #91240ParticipantRay, how dare you see $$$ signs when people are suffering? These fine folks are fathers, mothers, sons, daughters, uncles, aunts, nieces, nephews, Labradors and German shepherds.
(sarcasm off).
The Real Estate boosters will condemn others for discussing the outcome of this fire and questioning what led to this tragedy. But they will also milk it and milk it ’til the cow drops dead. Be sure to listen to the REIC talk in the next few months.
October 23, 2007 at 9:28 PM #91252ParticipantRay, how dare you see $$$ signs when people are suffering? These fine folks are fathers, mothers, sons, daughters, uncles, aunts, nieces, nephews, Labradors and German shepherds.
(sarcasm off).
The Real Estate boosters will condemn others for discussing the outcome of this fire and questioning what led to this tragedy. But they will also milk it and milk it ’til the cow drops dead. Be sure to listen to the REIC talk in the next few months.
October 23, 2007 at 9:28 PM #91220SD Realtor
Participantkewp I mentioned the firefighter arson event because it is much more probable… I went to high school with a guy named Jack Conger… he was kind of a sketchy dude… well turns out that he grew up to a sketchy adult and indeed started a pretty big fire in Topanga many years back… just to get work. He was a firefighter.
As far as checking the statistics… if we had a fire in downtown san diego it would have a huge statistical spike… a ton of homes that burned were foreclosures or short sales, imagine that! If we have a monster fire in Rancho Santa Fe we will not… So I don’t really understand the statistics you are pointing to…
If a community burns then a community burns… if you take the number of homes in that community and then make a ratio of the number of distressed homes in it, then your measurements are meaningless because even distressed communities like Lemon Grove for instance have crappy pockets and not crappy pockets. Are you saying that if there are 10,000 homes in a community and 1000 are distressed then there better be a 1 in 10 ratio of burned homes as well? It is purely very much of a reach to try to use ratios like you are thinking to find a so called smoking gun. Really, I do not dispute that maybe some random idiots torched thier home while homes around his burned (though I highly doubt it) but I still think it is a bigtime reach.
SD Realtor
October 23, 2007 at 9:28 PM #91243Participantkewp I mentioned the firefighter arson event because it is much more probable… I went to high school with a guy named Jack Conger… he was kind of a sketchy dude… well turns out that he grew up to a sketchy adult and indeed started a pretty big fire in Topanga many years back… just to get work. He was a firefighter.
As far as checking the statistics… if we had a fire in downtown san diego it would have a huge statistical spike… a ton of homes that burned were foreclosures or short sales, imagine that! If we have a monster fire in Rancho Santa Fe we will not… So I don’t really understand the statistics you are pointing to…
If a community burns then a community burns… if you take the number of homes in that community and then make a ratio of the number of distressed homes in it, then your measurements are meaningless because even distressed communities like Lemon Grove for instance have crappy pockets and not crappy pockets. Are you saying that if there are 10,000 homes in a community and 1000 are distressed then there better be a 1 in 10 ratio of burned homes as well? It is purely very much of a reach to try to use ratios like you are thinking to find a so called smoking gun. Really, I do not dispute that maybe some random idiots torched thier home while homes around his burned (though I highly doubt it) but I still think it is a bigtime reach.
SD Realtor
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