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October 23, 2007 at 9:28 PM #91255October 23, 2007 at 9:49 PM #91223
rankandfile
ParticipantI am not going to speculate whether setting the fires was a result of a RE conspiracy or not…that would be going against Occam’s Razor principle and is just a waste of my time.
What I do question is how multiple fires (as many as 5 or more) cropped up between the US/Mexican border and Los Olivos (by Solvang in Santa Barbara County) in a 24 hour time period. The Sedgewick Fire in Los Olivos started at 6am on 10/21, while the Harris Fire is purported to have started at 9:30am on 10/21. These two fires are no less than 242.71 miles apart!!! And all the fires in between started at around the same time. WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF THIS HAPPENING!!! All of my calculations were taken from the map on the LA Times website here and measured in Google Earth: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-firemap,0,6179739.htmlpage?coll=la-home-center
The kibitzer will say that the conditions were ripe for a wildfire: hot weather, hot and dry Santa Ana winds, no rain. Intuition, however, rules out the possibility that ALL of these fires were spawned by natural causes at or around the same time and nearly 250 miles apart!!! What are all the ways in which fires can be started naturally, and what is the probability that ALL of these fires were created in such a manner? Did lightning possibly strike ALL of these areas within a 24 hour time period? I know, maybe a bunch of lightning bugs all farted at the same time!
I don’t know the answer, but my gut tells me that something smells awfully fishy here. This tragedy has the words “fire bug(s)” written all over it.
October 23, 2007 at 9:49 PM #91245ParticipantI am not going to speculate whether setting the fires was a result of a RE conspiracy or not…that would be going against Occam’s Razor principle and is just a waste of my time.
What I do question is how multiple fires (as many as 5 or more) cropped up between the US/Mexican border and Los Olivos (by Solvang in Santa Barbara County) in a 24 hour time period. The Sedgewick Fire in Los Olivos started at 6am on 10/21, while the Harris Fire is purported to have started at 9:30am on 10/21. These two fires are no less than 242.71 miles apart!!! And all the fires in between started at around the same time. WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF THIS HAPPENING!!! All of my calculations were taken from the map on the LA Times website here and measured in Google Earth: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-firemap,0,6179739.htmlpage?coll=la-home-center
The kibitzer will say that the conditions were ripe for a wildfire: hot weather, hot and dry Santa Ana winds, no rain. Intuition, however, rules out the possibility that ALL of these fires were spawned by natural causes at or around the same time and nearly 250 miles apart!!! What are all the ways in which fires can be started naturally, and what is the probability that ALL of these fires were created in such a manner? Did lightning possibly strike ALL of these areas within a 24 hour time period? I know, maybe a bunch of lightning bugs all farted at the same time!
I don’t know the answer, but my gut tells me that something smells awfully fishy here. This tragedy has the words “fire bug(s)” written all over it.
October 23, 2007 at 9:49 PM #91258ParticipantI am not going to speculate whether setting the fires was a result of a RE conspiracy or not…that would be going against Occam’s Razor principle and is just a waste of my time.
What I do question is how multiple fires (as many as 5 or more) cropped up between the US/Mexican border and Los Olivos (by Solvang in Santa Barbara County) in a 24 hour time period. The Sedgewick Fire in Los Olivos started at 6am on 10/21, while the Harris Fire is purported to have started at 9:30am on 10/21. These two fires are no less than 242.71 miles apart!!! And all the fires in between started at around the same time. WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF THIS HAPPENING!!! All of my calculations were taken from the map on the LA Times website here and measured in Google Earth: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-firemap,0,6179739.htmlpage?coll=la-home-center
The kibitzer will say that the conditions were ripe for a wildfire: hot weather, hot and dry Santa Ana winds, no rain. Intuition, however, rules out the possibility that ALL of these fires were spawned by natural causes at or around the same time and nearly 250 miles apart!!! What are all the ways in which fires can be started naturally, and what is the probability that ALL of these fires were created in such a manner? Did lightning possibly strike ALL of these areas within a 24 hour time period? I know, maybe a bunch of lightning bugs all farted at the same time!
I don’t know the answer, but my gut tells me that something smells awfully fishy here. This tragedy has the words “fire bug(s)” written all over it.
October 23, 2007 at 10:09 PM #91235salo_t
ParticipantThere is no doubt in my mind that a lot of this is arson. By who and for what reason is yet to be seen, if ever.
But with the construction industry in such a slump this is sure to put a lot of home builders back to work.
There was at least one instance that I heard about where a home suddenly burst into flames on the La Jolla Indian reservation. I guess it was miles from the nearest fire but has now caused a lot of damage to the area. I think the authorities will be looking into that guys finances to help figure that one out.
Stay safe.October 23, 2007 at 10:09 PM #91257ParticipantThere is no doubt in my mind that a lot of this is arson. By who and for what reason is yet to be seen, if ever.
But with the construction industry in such a slump this is sure to put a lot of home builders back to work.
There was at least one instance that I heard about where a home suddenly burst into flames on the La Jolla Indian reservation. I guess it was miles from the nearest fire but has now caused a lot of damage to the area. I think the authorities will be looking into that guys finances to help figure that one out.
Stay safe.October 23, 2007 at 10:09 PM #91269ParticipantThere is no doubt in my mind that a lot of this is arson. By who and for what reason is yet to be seen, if ever.
But with the construction industry in such a slump this is sure to put a lot of home builders back to work.
There was at least one instance that I heard about where a home suddenly burst into flames on the La Jolla Indian reservation. I guess it was miles from the nearest fire but has now caused a lot of damage to the area. I think the authorities will be looking into that guys finances to help figure that one out.
Stay safe.October 23, 2007 at 10:10 PM #91238SD Realtor
ParticipantYes I would heartily agree that this or most of these fires at least to me appear to be started by humans…I would speculate that none of them were naturally started. With that said, if you go back and look at previous “firestorms” even in 2003, there are ALMOST ALWAYS multiple fires that crop up… From Malibu to Irvine to San Diego the fact that they all happened at the same time is absolutely no surprise to me… Seriously though, look back in history and you will see that it is almost uncanny how that happens… To me it is just the way that sick people get thier rocks off… pretty darned sad. I know that is pretty cynical but…
Again, most anyone who is a native Southern Californian can attest that firestorms are rarely a single fire and most often are multiple and in some case many fires that flare up within the same day or two.
SD Realtor
October 23, 2007 at 10:10 PM #91261ParticipantYes I would heartily agree that this or most of these fires at least to me appear to be started by humans…I would speculate that none of them were naturally started. With that said, if you go back and look at previous “firestorms” even in 2003, there are ALMOST ALWAYS multiple fires that crop up… From Malibu to Irvine to San Diego the fact that they all happened at the same time is absolutely no surprise to me… Seriously though, look back in history and you will see that it is almost uncanny how that happens… To me it is just the way that sick people get thier rocks off… pretty darned sad. I know that is pretty cynical but…
Again, most anyone who is a native Southern Californian can attest that firestorms are rarely a single fire and most often are multiple and in some case many fires that flare up within the same day or two.
SD Realtor
October 23, 2007 at 10:10 PM #91272ParticipantYes I would heartily agree that this or most of these fires at least to me appear to be started by humans…I would speculate that none of them were naturally started. With that said, if you go back and look at previous “firestorms” even in 2003, there are ALMOST ALWAYS multiple fires that crop up… From Malibu to Irvine to San Diego the fact that they all happened at the same time is absolutely no surprise to me… Seriously though, look back in history and you will see that it is almost uncanny how that happens… To me it is just the way that sick people get thier rocks off… pretty darned sad. I know that is pretty cynical but…
Again, most anyone who is a native Southern Californian can attest that firestorms are rarely a single fire and most often are multiple and in some case many fires that flare up within the same day or two.
SD Realtor
October 23, 2007 at 10:13 PM #91241bsrsharma
Participantmy gut tells me that something smells awfully fishy here
Your analysis is mathematically first rate; the only problem is, these types of tandem fires have happened, like, a dozen times, in my own memory. All during these periods of hot dry winds in early fall. That seems to suggest natural causes rather than a regular epidemic of "fire bugs". After all, in south east they regularly get hit by multiple tornadoes per season and multiple hurricanes/flooding per season. Can't be "Water bugs" or "Wind bugs".
October 23, 2007 at 10:13 PM #91263Participantmy gut tells me that something smells awfully fishy here
Your analysis is mathematically first rate; the only problem is, these types of tandem fires have happened, like, a dozen times, in my own memory. All during these periods of hot dry winds in early fall. That seems to suggest natural causes rather than a regular epidemic of "fire bugs". After all, in south east they regularly get hit by multiple tornadoes per season and multiple hurricanes/flooding per season. Can't be "Water bugs" or "Wind bugs".
October 23, 2007 at 10:13 PM #91275Participantmy gut tells me that something smells awfully fishy here
Your analysis is mathematically first rate; the only problem is, these types of tandem fires have happened, like, a dozen times, in my own memory. All during these periods of hot dry winds in early fall. That seems to suggest natural causes rather than a regular epidemic of "fire bugs". After all, in south east they regularly get hit by multiple tornadoes per season and multiple hurricanes/flooding per season. Can't be "Water bugs" or "Wind bugs".
October 23, 2007 at 10:14 PM #91244Anonymous
GuestSD Realtor should have a good laugh indeed. The conspiracy theoriests don’t seem to comprehend the basics of home owner insurance or construction insurance for that matter. These insurance policies only cover the value of the structure, which is likely only half or less of the property value. So an upside down owner with a burnt down house is still upside down even after the insurance payment — as the insurance is likely less than half of what he owes in mortgage. Indeed he is likely even more deep in the debt since the land is likely worth a lot less without a structure on it and meanwhile he has lost the use of his home as a shelter. These are simply pathetic from an economic point of view and a lot worse from basic human decency.
October 23, 2007 at 10:14 PM #91266GuestSD Realtor should have a good laugh indeed. The conspiracy theoriests don’t seem to comprehend the basics of home owner insurance or construction insurance for that matter. These insurance policies only cover the value of the structure, which is likely only half or less of the property value. So an upside down owner with a burnt down house is still upside down even after the insurance payment — as the insurance is likely less than half of what he owes in mortgage. Indeed he is likely even more deep in the debt since the land is likely worth a lot less without a structure on it and meanwhile he has lost the use of his home as a shelter. These are simply pathetic from an economic point of view and a lot worse from basic human decency.
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