Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
September 23, 2007 at 4:09 PM in reply to: Off topic – The Chargers are NOT who we thought they were #85633
Duck
ParticipantNAR is forecasting that the Chargers will win their next 13 games although that forecast may change next week.
ParticipantIt’s an attempt to add liquidity to the mortgage market because investors have balked at buying non-conforming loans thus limitng the number of lenders in the non-conforming market. The GSE’s charter is to help assure that the mortgage markets remain liquid. They haven’t been for the last couple months.
I do think this will help sales in California, but probably not until next year. The question remains what happens to global interest rates in the face of the falling dollar. The French are clamoring for rate reductions and if the Fed continues to lower the Euro Bank is going to have to do likewise for their exporters to remain competitive.
ParticipantIt’s crazy that it has taken this long to raise the limits for California. Hawaii, Alaska, US Virgin Islands and Guam all have limits 50% higher than the rest of the country. The increased limit may be temporary, but it will help drive down the rates on Jumbo’s because more lenders will get in the game and they’ll accept lower margins if GSE’s will buy their loans.
As for Bush, I cringe whenever I hear him talk about the economy or the housing market (or just bout anythig else for that matter). He has the same credibility as the “sideline reporter” on Monday Might Football discussing football strategy.
ParticipantI’d be very cautious about shorting. Don’t fight the Fed.
I got greedy on my HOV puts and instead of a nice 40% profit in about 4 weeks they are now down 25%. Oh well, it was just a hedge and my account is at an all time high.
Still think there are plenty of skeletons in HOV’s closets and I have two months on the Nov puts.
ParticipantRead your post again.
You say “there are plenty of reasons why people sell their homes when they do not need to sell”
Are you drinking, Muggle? In this market? Who would be that stupid?
I have an idea.
Participant<<<< In most major markets, the bulk of For Sale's are becoming need-to-sell inventory (forced sales, job move, retirement, bought another home, etc). >>>>
I would guess that the majority of For Sale’s for the last 100 years in every market are for one of the reasons you state above. Why else would you move?
ParticipantCommodities
ParticipantSee any correlation between the top “wants” and home prices? Where there is a will, there is a way.
ParticipantHaven’t you noticed abandonded houses in your area? I saw 2 this morning…..
Abandonded house? Where do you live? Detroit?
ParticipantSchizo was talking about inventory stabilizng and the article points out that inventory (despite all the REO’s on the market) is actually 2,000 units below last year’s level at this point. If you want to figure out what is happening you have to be objective.
I find it strange that the median price for resale homes was actually up YOY in August when it was widely assumed that Jumbo loans were becoming very hard to get. While median is not a great indicator, I would have thought a lot more lower priced homes would have sold in the face of poor liquidity for non-conforming loans.
If you look at the numbers from this article, the overall median (for all homes) was influenced mostly by the big drop in new home/condo sales prices. REO’s and new homes are “must sell”. As those inventories increase prices (overall) should continue to drift lower. It would be interesting to get an accurate reading on inventories of REO’s and new homes and be able to track that.
September 12, 2007 at 11:16 AM in reply to: August numbers out. No impact of the credit crunch in San Diego… #84293ParticipantRockemsock,
I disagree with your assumption that those pendings prior to August would not be effected by the lack of liquidity in the mortgage market which peaked n early/mid August. A loan does not fund until a day or two before a property closes, and a lender can come up with dozens of conditions that give them an out not to fund the loan.
These numbers for August, if accurate, are very surprising.
Participant<< Wrong. The recommended for a 60" plasma would be 15 feet. It's roughly a factor of 3, not 1.5. If you actually tried to watch a movie for 2 hours 7.5 feet away, would realize the terrible image quality and probably end up with a migrain>>
My comment was not based on terrible image quality. I prefer about 2.5x for sports, but 1.5x is fine for movies broadcast in high def or on HDDVD/Bluray.
Participant<< Wrong. The recommended for a 60" plasma would be 15 feet. It's roughly a factor of 3, not 1.5. If you actually tried to watch a movie for 2 hours 7.5 feet away, would realize the terrible image quality and probably end up with a migrain>>
My comment was not based on terrible image quality. I prefer about 2.5x for sports, but 1.5x is fine for movies broadcast in high def or on HDDVD/Bluray.
ParticipantFirst off, I don’t know much about Santaluz other than driving by it on the way to soccer games, but there are some delusional sellers in there and many already in trouble. A quick search showed an active/pending ratio of 11 to 1 (76 actives) which is a huge discrepancy. 2 of the 7 pendings are bank owned. Only one pending sale is over $1,750,000 but about 30 active listings are over $1,750,000. I’m not sure how many homes are actually in the community, but if it’s less than 2,000 that’s a lot of homes for sale. Just about every listing is offering some incentive like paying Mello Roos and membership fees for 2 or 3 years. How about just dropping your price $100k or 200k? The one listing with a $10k Cartier shopping spree in Beverly Hills for the selling agent is very nice. I’m sure they’ll disclose that to the unsuspecting buyer if they ever find one.
It looks like there was a huge runup in 2003 and 2004 (like elsewhere), but some were just crazy. There was a small one story that was flipped for a $300k gain in about 6 months and the orignal purchase was in the 600’s.
I expect a lot more inventory in the Fall and Spring ’08 when the next tax bills come. Again, I don’t know anything about this community, but it seems due for a big hit. Supply and demand.
-
AuthorPosts
