- This topic has 10 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 6 months ago by LookoutBelow.
September 18, 2007 at 12:57 PM #10332
September 18, 2007 at 1:25 PM #85010lnilesParticipant
Time to short?
September 18, 2007 at 3:09 PM #85048DuckParticipant
I’d be very cautious about shorting. Don’t fight the Fed.
I got greedy on my HOV puts and instead of a nice 40% profit in about 4 weeks they are now down 25%. Oh well, it was just a hedge and my account is at an all time high.
Still think there are plenty of skeletons in HOV’s closets and I have two months on the Nov puts.
September 18, 2007 at 4:03 PM #85057ArtyParticipant
If stock shoot up like this after the cut, it is almost classic moral hazard setting in. Fed should be really worried.
September 18, 2007 at 7:37 PM #85099hipmattParticipant
I only suppose that the volatility won’t be going away.. we will still see disturbing earnings reports for a while before the rate cut has a chance to make a difference, even if it does at all…
Commodities and metals going to record highs may eventually weigh in on the rate cut parties, as will the record low dollar.
RE still looks ugly, and as we have concluded in another thread, the rate cut will really only affect HELOCS and NEW arms, and it looks like it won’t help the 30 year fixed crowd, it might have made those fixed rates go higher.
We have the largest number of resets coming up in the next six months.. they may only benefit if they refi into another arm loan or similar.. they will have NO benefit if they refi into a fixed loan… we will still have tons of pressure for many to sell, and more foreclosures coming our way.
I will keep my gold, my foreign currencies, and my foreign stocks, but I can’t say whats gonna happen to the US equities.
September 18, 2007 at 7:52 PM #85101
“RE still looks ugly, and as we have concluded in another thread, the rate cut will really only affect HELOCS and NEW arms, and it looks like it won’t help the 30 year fixed crowd, it might have made those fixed rates go higher. ”
The 30 yr old fixed crowd doesn’t need any help.
September 18, 2007 at 1:35 PM #85015
Todays % change increase for the homebuilders:
HOVNANIAN ENT INC [HOV] +27.63%
BEAZER HOMES USA INC [BZH] +18.69%
STANDARD PACIFIC LP [SPF] +14.09%
ORLEANS HOMEBUILDERS [OHB] +12.50%
M I HOMES INC [MHO] +11.07%
D R HORTON INC [DHI] +5.37%
LENNAR CP CL A [LEN] +2.10%
PULTE HOMES, INC. [PHM] +6.28%
GAFISA SA ADR [GFA] +3.26%
CENTEX CP [CTX] +4.35%
What you say RE bears .. ?
Hard to ignore that foreclosures up 115% since Aug. 06 but does this reduce probability of a recession? I think so.. what u say?
September 18, 2007 at 1:46 PM #85019JPJonesParticipant
“You” is normally spelled with 3 letters. If you want to be taken seriously, you might consider trying it.
September 18, 2007 at 1:55 PM #85022
“You” is normally spelled with 3 letters. If you want to be taken seriously, you might consider trying it.”
Actually, are you not taking it “too” seriously there JP man ..?
September 19, 2007 at 12:32 AM #85154temeculaguyParticipant
Yes, the home builders saw a jump, HOV having the best day of the bunch but don’t think that trend will last more than a week or two. If you look at how they are doing on the year, it’s hard to be bullish, it’s 52 week range is 9.76 – 38.66, so to jump 3.22 to 14.55, let’s hold off on licking each other’s popsicles for a minute. It spent last year in the 40’s and 50’s, the first three months of the year in the 30’s, second three months in the 20’s and only the last two months was it in the teens. To pull the, “see you guys are wrong” card because it goes from completely crappy to just crappy, isn’t a vey good argument. Would i short the builders? No. They are already beat down so bad that there isn’t enough room to the downside left and too many people will think it is a bargain getting them for 25 cents on the dollar. Over the last two years it has been falling 10-15 every six months, which is equal to it’s current value. I suspect the majority of the builders will slash prices over the next year 10-30% to move inventory and make the investors happy. The real question is what will that do to the rest of the R/E market. HOV sold 2100 homes by cutting 50-150k per home, what will be effect of every other house in those areas losing a similar amount of appraised value, and for every house they sold, a resale didn’t sell. HOV deserved the stock pop for being the first and if they stay ahead of the pack they will make more in stock value than in building homes, since none of them are making money the race is on to see who can lose the least.
September 19, 2007 at 8:27 AM #85167LookoutBelowParticipant
Hahahahaaa….What rate cut ?
Have a look at the 10 yr this morning and show me where the rate cut is ?
Bernanke thinks he sets the rate, he does NOT….The market does that now….All I see is a rate HIKE !!!
Trade this market at your own (very high) risk. When the clowns figure out what REALLY happened yesterday the sell off will be just as violent
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.