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CoronitaParticipant13506 Moonflower Meadows Trail
bought 10/05 for $848K
currently on market for $620K – $670KLooks like $228K plus sales costs – a potential $250K loss.
Oh come on guys. Have you actually taken a look at what this POS looks like?http://bp0.blogger.com/_hui4LGmGP_g/Rj54yAUAXeI/AAAAAAAAATU/N16u8lKQvNY/s1600-h/1.jpg
This home must have been purchased by someone who didn't even take a look at this place OR was BLIND. It's not physically appealing EVEN AT 600k. $800k for this 2000sqft POS???? Now, if you really want to see homes that lost value in Carmel Valley, do a search on Palacio…Big speculation, crappy homes in crappy location (borders a golf course and right below the 56 interchange…)
CoronitaParticipantThis development is such a POS. I can’t believe people actually buy there. It’s in the middle of nowhere.
CoronitaParticipant"The bottom line is if you can afford the home, buy it, else move somewhere else or lower your expectations." Financially, I am having my best year ever. What does $250,000 annual income get you nowadays? A crackerbox in Del Sur? A hovel in la Jolla? No thanks. How about I ignore your bottom line and continue to sit on the sidelines until prices normalize? Sure the temptation is there to jump in. But I prefer to overcome my sheeple urges and rent a sh**hole in Kensington for $1,900 a month. Meanwhile I am surrounded by million dollar spanish style homes, the mayor for a neighbor, and many disgruntled homeowners around me, who wish they were not a slave to their mortgage payment. By the way, I drive a Prius to save on gas and drive a little cleaner, and I like to hit Kobey's on the weekend. Move somewhere else? Lower my expectations? I don't think so. I enjoy the Piggington way of thinking. A bunch of Chicken Littles, you say? Hardly. Yes, I own a home too. And I let my tenants cover my expenses and then some. Patience and common sense is a virtue when it comes to the housing market. Show me a Hummer in the driveway, and I'll show you a house in pre-foreclosure. Nuff said.
Is that all you make? Imagine that…A $250k household living slums. The attrocity!!!Call in the welfare reform!! I'm just kidding…..I know what you mean. I don't understand why people that work for me drive nicer cars than me but at the same time complain they can't afford a home….Duh! One thing though…Don't tell me you're saving money by driving a Prius…Saving the environment, yes…Saving money…I don't think your gas savings going to cover the premium you paid for the first generation toy over say a honda civic that gets 30mpg. I'm sure you're not getting 60mpg that toyota claims, but closer to 40-45 in real world.
CoronitaParticipantI notice a "pattern" about the posters at Piggington.
1. Those who are knowledgeable about real estate. These people generally assert that there will be a major price correction. And this correction will be slow, so patience is the key. Most importantly, these people base their outlook on their knowledge & understanding. 2. Those who don't know much about real estate or are still in the process of learning more about RE. These people base their outlook on their "FEELING" (which is to be expected, if you don't have the knowledge, all you have is your GUT FEELING). Sorry to say this, Alex_angel belongs to the latter group. Knowledge is power ! Keep studying 🙂
Actually, I've noticed quite a few "patterns" here.
1. Some folks who are knowledgeable about real estate. These folks usually tell what they are seeing now, with data to back it up. Some who make educated guesses into the future.
2. Some folks who seem like disgruntled folks that band behind people type #1 like sheep, probably because they are pissed off at the affordability of homes and want to hear things that's along the line of their frustration.
3. Variants of type #2 that act like type #1's…These folks typically post 1-2 or maybe 3 homes that appear to have lost 100-200k in value, pop open the wine, celebrate about the idiot buyer who now is going to lose his shirt, only to be corrected by a type #1 person that looks up the MLS listing/etc and quote the actual number(s) and/or condition of sale.
4. Variants of type #2 that attack contrarian opinions that "express things might not be that as a 40-50% correction," and pin labels on people that make these opinions like "dumb buyer at peak prices that are disillusioned that they aren't going to get their a**es handed to him". "people that are dumb buying homes at such prices because it doesn't make sense.", when in reality some(not all) of these folks don't really need to worry about things if their primary home declines 40-50% because (1) they can afford the primary home (2) don't view the primary home as an "investment", but instead satisfy some material feeling that he/she may possess (3) actually makes decent financial decisions elsewhere to satisfy such material posessions.
5. Variants of #2 who can't afford homes because these spend their hard earn money on other crap and/or who drive nicer cars than their boss ( I know a few of these folks).
5. People that really are disillusioned into thinking that home prices aren't going to fall at all, and really are in a state of denial.
6. People who don't like to here negative things about they home that they just bought and will say anything to make themselves feel better.
7. Idiots like me who
a)like to read what people #1 post
b)find everyone else entertaining
c)speak whatever the hell on my mind with no data to back anything up, often act like #2-#6
d)frankly don't really care if real-estate falls 20-50% because there's no point in dwelling on when it happens, and because we're busy spending time looking for other investments to make their money grow while real estate is suppose to fall in the next 2-5 years.
e)hoping that both real estate prices will fall AND mortgage rates rise sharp and fast to double digits (10-13%) to effectively lock out a good portion of potential first home buyers during this downturn so that they can be my potential tenants for homes that I'll buy during this period.
For example,
Currently: 30year fixed @6% with 20% down on an $800k = $3,837.12/month
Ideally, I hope this home would fall to $500k, but at the same time a 30year fixed loan would sharply rise to 12% or
$3300/month.
..effectively still making homes unattainable for enough people so that they can be my renter.
CoronitaParticipantThe average person in america is pretty stupid. They want to make a quick buck and have no problem when things are going good. They spend 4 dollars for every 1 dollar they earn. They buy all sorts of crap on layaway. Of course if things don’t go their way, they bitch and whine that it’s not there fault, it’s someone else. Then they blame others for the mess that they are in. Congressfolks are either equally stupid (having no financial knowledge) or are incredibly smart and sleep with big corporations to advance their own self interest.
In the end, the minority of the responsible people have to bear the brunt of everyone else’s issues.
Get use to it…Bailout is going to happen at the expense of the minority of people that are responsible. It’s not going ot save home prices, but it’s going to happen.
May 6, 2007 at 12:48 PM in reply to: “Those who say the prices are going to go down 50 percent are just yahoos who are not looking at the whole picture,” #51940CoronitaParticipantThe defense budget is not going to shrink considerably any time soon. In fact Defense is one of the most stable industries in San Diego (and the US) today, but it is not nearly as big it was in the cold war days. It shrunk considerable in the early 90s due to the end of the cold war and it was simply way oversized and everyone agreed on that. Don't think Clinton taking office had anything to do with the shrinking defense budget, sounds like Rush Limbaugh propoganda.
Wait and see. I think the biggest problem is how much we're spending on the Iraq War. It's not going to continue, and the Gov is going to switch to addressing the other(domestic) issues we now have . And I wasn't attacking Clinton. It's just my opinion that it was a shift in dollars from what was important to the Gov at that time. Gov is going to try to address this housing loan issue and going to try a bailout. It's not going to help everyone, but just a small percentage enough so that politicians can say "they did something for the average joe"…. It's not going be a big topic before elections because that would risk polarizing voters and politicians like debating over more "important" issues like abortion rights, gay marriages, creationism versus evolution. But it will be probably something the Gov attempts to fix first after the elections.
CoronitaParticipantI’m not complaining. Markets are irrational. Actually, you want to make a quick buck, buy a lot of july/august put options on Yahoo.
See it today? Typical Buy on Rumor, Sell on news.
This MSFT merger rumor I doubt will happen.CoronitaParticipantActually, I also found the following information about him that makes things even more interesting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Schumer
Committees
Schumer is Chairman of the Joint Economic Committee. He also currently serves on the following Senate Committees:
- Senate Committee on Finance
- Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
- Senate Committee on the Judiciary
- Senate Committee on Rules and Administration
Still don't think a bailout is possible? You think Senators like Schumer are proposing a bailout to really help out the average Joe????
Doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised that he has ties to banking institutions. Here's the "theory" that I'd piece together:
* Banks know they're up sh!t's creek
* Banks want a bailout, without going public to avoid freaking out the general masses (investors, etc).
* Current government in control (in this case Democrats) don't want to go down in history as the ones that didn't do squat for the people. Also, they have big corp lobbying groups to appease.
* Bank corps and congress/government work out a deal.
* Congress puts bills out in public screaming for bailout/loan reform to win public support for the average otherwise screwed Joe.
* Meanwhile congress structures bailout/load reform geared to protect the Bank corps from going under under the guise of "helping" average Joe.
–> Loan terms will be extended to lower monthly payments, but keep people locked in longer than 30 years (40 or 50 years???)
–> At the same time, loan terms are tightened to make it harder for screwed average Joe to obtain other loan terms.
–> At the same time, perhaps additional legislation/law enforcement will be proposed that makes it harder for average screwed joe to walk away from existing loans. For example, the threat of prosecuting Alt-A borrowers who lied, but will be "forgiven" if they accept the new loan terms.
All for the purpose of stringing out troubled borrowers across years, to avoid 1 shot flood of screwed people. Instead, small groups of screwed people spread out across the years. It also buys banks time for real estate to recover some of the decline so BANKS don't have to bear the brunt.
CoronitaParticipantThat’s also what happens when you made sh*tty cars or gas gushers when gas is nearing 4 bucks a pop.
However, sharing platforms with GM Europe and bringing car designs from GM Europe here was the best decision GM made.
Ford and Chrysler on the other hand……..
CoronitaParticipantIs this person the same one that predicted the S&P 500 would hit 600 by May 2007?
CoronitaParticipantI really hope no one took this person seriously back in august and bought reverse indexes….
May 3, 2007 at 10:01 PM in reply to: “Those who say the prices are going to go down 50 percent are just yahoos who are not looking at the whole picture,” #51807CoronitaParticipant"You willing to bank everything on one big decline…You're brave. I wouldn't want to gamble on just one hit wonders." Wouldn't buying now be gambling on the opposite side of the coin?
…As an investment, gambling yes. Foolishly, probably….As a primary home, it depends on what's more important to you (and your family) and whether you can afford it or not. Some folks here seem to talk that they will only buy if things correct 50-70%.. I would say that sort of logic is like saying that you'll only sell a stock only when it hits at $100 when it's currently trading at $50… You can pony up as much data as you want, but highly unlikely anyone is going to be able to predict the bottom.
The reason why I think things won't get "that" out of hand is banks won't let it. Banks know things are bad, they aren't telling you. I wouldn't be surprised if they start getting creative to bailout people while also screwing them in the process. Expect to see 40 to 50 year mortgages coming on the horizon, along with lobbied legislation to make it more difficult to just walk away from a loan. I'm sure there are a good percentage of idiots that would do anything to keep their homes. I see the biggest areas of declines are probably in L.A. frankly, especially when the defense budget starts to shrink again. Happened when clinton took office, and it will happen again. San Diego will probably get hit too. But 50-70% decline across the board…uh,sure.
May 3, 2007 at 8:46 PM in reply to: “Those who say the prices are going to go down 50 percent are just yahoos who are not looking at the whole picture,” #51803CoronitaParticipantAh Poor "Fat_Lazy_Union_…" aka RATcliff?
I love to see high-road, classy, and professional responses from people scared about the coming demise in the housing industry.
I also love the cheap shots they give to people in jobs not directly involved with housing. Those who thumbed their noses at salaried/union/SBO's in the past 5 years, are now complaining to them that they are wrong for not buying 5 years ago.
Truth is, misery loves company and many who bought at affordable prices, refinanced at higher levels and can't afford anymore either.
"UNION boy" is no different and I hope he reads this.
The only difference between what you call our hope in a crash, (which is really just an expectation of a correction to make houses affordable again) and your hope that prices will continue to rise, is we base it on actual data, not politically charged propoganda and opinion.
As one of his cronies, why don't you continue to follow in the footsteps of Mr. Lereah…
Actually, you mistaken me drastically. I hate unions personally, and I was never in the "real estate" speculation, save selling a home that was purchased at a normal time, and few rentals that have been cash flow positive for years. In fact, I'm probably what you consider just a normal,average salaried worker that is bent on reaching my goal of $3million before I turn 35. The lesson that I learned very young is that pretty much salaries are just there to pay bills, your assets is what you keep afloat.
Nothing would give me more pleasure than having housing correct so that homes are "investments" again. I'm merely pointing out that I've seen my fair share of people who like to focus on so much negativity, that their view is the entire world is crumbling and they just don't motivate to do anything. They'd rather wallow in misery.. It's no different than those idiots that believe the party will never end..
There a some of you here that are really intelligent and probably here to really talk about investments. But I would say a handful of you are here to just gripe about home prices being unaffordable for you. The same people that will be griping about how ridiculously expensive stocks have become 2-3 years from now because you didn't think it was "rationale" to put money back in the market.. I call this the sour grape mentality.
As far as a huge downturn, don't think it's gonna happen, but if I'm wrong bring it on. I would more than welcome this. But like i said, even if there is a huge downturn, several of you won't be in any better positions to take advantage of this, unless you have sufficient cash on hand to buy out and hold, and if inflation also doesn't kill your purchaing power. The people who stand to benefit from this are the extremely rich (and no, I'm not consider myself to be in that category either).May 3, 2007 at 9:07 AM in reply to: “Those who say the prices are going to go down 50 percent are just yahoos who are not looking at the whole picture,” #51694CoronitaParticipantI know one person that predicted the S&P 500 would drop to 600 by Spring 2007 and that housing would drop by 50%. The first prediction has brought her to true "Yahoo" status. I'm thinking the second may only solidify that status, but we won't know for a few years. Being neither a disgruntled renter, a recent purchaser, nor a highly leveraged owner, I see this from a different perspective – I see yahoos on both sides – those who keep calling the bottom and those who expect massive drops any day now. The frog is starting to boil.
Exactly. The problem that I see some folks here try to "rationalize" things to o far to an extreme. Markets are pretty much irrationale imho, both in an up market and a down market. You get enought people to say the sky is falling, the sky will fall to some degree. You get enough people to say the stock market is "fairly valued", then people with think that's the case too. This country never makes rational decisions based on reason and logic. Just look at our president and who put him in office. From a technical analysis, the minority of people who are astute and feel that things don't make sense are just that, a minority. But put it this way. If you are in a room with 30 morons who thinks the sky is green, and you're the only one that knows it's blue, it's pretty pointless to debate it.
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