“Those who say the prices are going to go down 50 percent are just yahoos who are not looking at the whole picture,”

[schizo2buyORnot]

Barb by OC RE analysts aimed directly at the Piggington crowd and associates . . . . (see last line of article).

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/05/02/news/top_stories/1_33_545_1_07.txt

[Cow_tipping]

I know, I totally agree … That’s why I am thinking 70% down.
Lets see, its shot up 3X in the last 8 years based on funky financing and liar loans and massive speculation, and roll back 8 years to 99 lets say, and that itself was propped up by a pets.com and web van based economy, so lets take that factor out, so 97 and that would be a decent fall back price, except that the engineering and technical jobs which we were importing high $$$ immigrants for (like me) are now being exported en masse to india and china along with the cheapo call centers and lower $$ medical billing jobs.
Ergo, 97 is also too high … but we dont have a definite fall back location though from 97. So I am pegging it at 97 prices – … or an approximate 70% drop from the 05 peak. It will take time … 1-2 years minimum, maybe 5-6 years, then baby boomers dump their built in the 70’s loaded with lead paint and asbestos crap and all bets are off …
The 50% drop yahoo’s are just crazy out of left field … I’ll agree.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

[latesummer2008]

DENIAL !!! UCLA forecasters are laughable now that Thornberg left. Read between the lines and you get a lot of “I think”, “So Far” and “Murky” ,basically leaving themselves an out. If your so sure about this article, why aren’t you jumping in and buying right now, before prices go up? I am sure their are plenty of people would love to unload their ball and chain.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[LookoutBelow]

I would think a 70% decline is VERY possible…..thats from "todays" silly prices…if they continue to go up, then the percent drop only gets bigger….. This is Disneyland Man….Disneyland……There's going to be a lot of crocodile tears when it comes to closing time in this financial fantasy 

[Coronita]

DENIAL !!! UCLA forecasters are laughable now that Thornberg left. Read between the lines and you get a lot of "I think", "So Far" and "Murky" ,basically leaving themselves an out. If your so sure about this article, why aren't you jumping in and buying right now, before prices go up? I am sure their are plenty of people would love to unload their ball and chain.

 

I think the only people that are laughable are some of the sad people on this board that think so negatively that it’s blindsiding all their judgement. The same blindsided opinion that biased them against buying a primary home years ago when they could have afforded it, blindsided their judgement thinking the entire U.S. economy is going to collapse, and have been sitting on the sideline in the equity markets,housing market, etc for so many years… or worse, folks who actually took up negative positions on the equity market in anticipation of a "crash" which has yet to happen.

I think it's laughable that some folks here are counting (desperately hoping?) for on one big crash as the solution to making them relatively more wealthy (or shall I say, relatively less poor)… Perhaps it's a hope to get equal with others that have gotten to where they are through good planning, appropriate risk taking..Either way, it seems to me it's some of you are banking on your entire economic future on the prediction of one crash to "settle the score." It's no different though the gambler betting the house on one stock tip that will hopefully "make then millions" in one shot.

 

That is what I call DENIAL. Even if you guys are right in a total demise in the u.s. economy, some of you are not going to be the great beneficiary of the demise anyway if you’re just an average Joe with a small business or are salaried…Because if things get that bad anyway, you’re going to be out on the street just like the rest of the “average” joe…So quit thinking you guys are so much smarter then the rest of the average joe’s out there. While some of you may be here, most of you are not. And if the “demise of the u.s. economy” doesn’t happen to the degree that you are hoping for, well you’re pretty screwed still anyway.

[Coronita]

I would think a 70% decline is VERY possible…..thats from "todays" silly prices…if they continue to go up, then the percent drop only gets bigger….. This is Disneyland Man….Disneyland……There's going to be a lot of crocodile tears when it comes to closing time in this financial fantasy

 

Sure, so is getting hit by a bus tomorrow. Everything is possible. It's also possible things will only decline by 30% or by 10% or whatever. You willing to bank everything on one big decline…You're brave. I wouldn't want to gamble on just one hit wonders.

 

[brooke]

Rich NOT in “50% club”

FWIW – He thinks that gov’t will step in long before it gets to that level, either through inflation or direct intervention in the housing or mortgage markets.

~b

[JWM in SD]

And do what exactly?? Their choices are not very good at that point. Hyperinflation is END GAME for rich and poor alike. No, the best thing the govt can do is let this run its course. 50%? I don’t know, but I don’t think it’s out of the question though. My personal guess is 30 to 40% from peak…but I think that will happen a lot faster some people do.

[Alex_angel]

I love how concrete their prediction of $478k as being the bottom median price. That is the most laughable thing I have ever saw. They are trying to set a price so that the RE’s can show this article to clients and say “see the bottom is still really high”

Get lost you dirty RE creeps.

[kewp]

Dear lord, can you imagine the consequences if RE dropped 70% in San Diego County?

School teachers and firefighters being able to afford entry-level housing? And, god forbid, HAVE ENOUGH MONEY LEFT OVER TO RAISE A FAMILY?

For shame, people.

[lniles]

My neighborhood, recent sales:

28% decline
11595 Caminito La Bar 11, San Diego, CA 92126
03/23/2007: $260,000
07/10/2006: $358,990

15% decline
11565 Caminito La Bar 33, San Diego, CA 92126
02/27/2007: $307,000
12/28/2004: $360,000

13% decline
11525 Caminito La Bar 54, San Diego, CA 92126
3/12/2007: $354,057
07/15/2005: $409,000

11515 Caminito La Bar 84, San Diego, CA 92126
This one is Zestimated at
Value Range: $340,646 – $437,973
Recently sold for $251,000

Draw your own conclusions!

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

FWIW – I partly agree with the quote.
I’m guesstimating a ~35-40% real decline from the peak for Central SD SFRs, most likely a 20-25% drop in nominal price and 15-20% inflation spread over 5-6 years. Just my opinion.
A 20% nominal price decline would leave most of this board waiting for more.

[sdduuuude]

I know one person that predicted the S&P 500 would drop to 600 by Spring 2007 and that housing would drop by 50%. The first prediction has brought her to true “Yahoo” status. I’m thinking the second may only solidify that status, but we won’t know for a few years.

Being neither a disgruntled renter, a recent purchaser, nor a highly leveraged owner, I see this from a different perspective – I see yahoos on both sides – those who keep calling the bottom and those who expect massive drops any day now.

The frog is starting to boil.

[Coronita]

I know one person that predicted the S&P 500 would drop to 600 by Spring 2007 and that housing would drop by 50%. The first prediction has brought her to true "Yahoo" status. I'm thinking the second may only solidify that status, but we won't know for a few years. Being neither a disgruntled renter, a recent purchaser, nor a highly leveraged owner, I see this from a different perspective – I see yahoos on both sides – those who keep calling the bottom and those who expect massive drops any day now. The frog is starting to boil.

 

Exactly. The problem that I see some folks here try to "rationalize" things to o far to an extreme. Markets are pretty much irrationale imho, both in an up market and a down market. You get enought people to say the sky is falling, the sky will fall to some degree. You get enough people to say the stock market is "fairly valued", then people with think that's the case too. This country never makes rational decisions based on reason and logic. Just look at our president and who put him in office. From a technical analysis, the minority of people who are astute and feel that things don't make sense are just that, a minority. But put it this way. If you are in a room with 30 morons who thinks the sky is green, and you're the only one that knows it's blue, it's pretty pointless to debate it.

 

[kev374]

This sort of nonsense by so called expert economists are printed before every bubble. If you look at the NY Times archive you can find exactly the same articles calling 30% declines proposterous yet the decline was exactly that and in many areas it was worse.

$400,000 shacks in the ghetto is downright absurd, do you require a PhD in economics to realize that?

[Author]

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