Who got the better deal in this decline;l you or big money

[Allan from Fallbrook]

PR: Taken one step further, this is the government’s way of attempting a “soft landing” in terms of market valuation on those toxic assets.

We all know exactly what would happen if, simultaneously, all of the banks were forced to divulge, on a mark-to-market basis, the true (or salable, to be more precise) value of those same toxic assets. The answer is complete systemic collapse and largely due to the fact that those assets, while not valueless, would be discounted significantly, in many cases by 50 – 75%. This true, market-driven valuation would blow holes in Balance Sheets throughout the banking industry and you would see the list of FDIC troubled banks skyrocket. The word on the street is that as many as another 2,000 banks and financial institutions may bite the dust by 2012 and what Geithner and the FDIC are doing right now is controlling the crash as best they can.

So, Geithner and the FDIC play a little game with the money (and there is no fear that the FDIC will go broke, the Treasury will just continue printing money for Bair and Co. to throw at insolvent banks) and they keep the fiction alive, while Bernanke talks about “green shoots” and averting Great Depression II.

The real question now becomes how much of an impact the potential collapse in Commercial RE might have, as well as the rapidly rising default rate on those mortgages that aren’t subprime, such as Alt-A and Prime.

[patientrenter]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]…this is the government’s way of attempting a “soft landing” in terms of market valuation on those toxic assets.[/quote]

If I were not a cynic, Allan, I would believe this. My cynical side says that what’s really going on is redirecting the consequences of bad actions from the principal orchestraters and beneficiaries to the innocent bystanders. In other words, my cynical side tells me the soft landing is marketed as a rescue for us all, but it’s really a smokescreen for a painless escape by the primary perpretators.

[patientrenter]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]…this is the government’s way of attempting a “soft landing” in terms of market valuation on those toxic assets.[/quote]

If I were not a cynic, Allan, I would believe this. My cynical side says that what’s really going on is redirecting the consequences of bad actions from the principal orchestraters and beneficiaries to the innocent bystanders. In other words, my cynical side tells me the soft landing is marketed as a rescue for us all, but it’s really a smokescreen for a painless escape by the primary perpretators.

[patientrenter]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]…this is the government’s way of attempting a “soft landing” in terms of market valuation on those toxic assets.[/quote]

If I were not a cynic, Allan, I would believe this. My cynical side says that what’s really going on is redirecting the consequences of bad actions from the principal orchestraters and beneficiaries to the innocent bystanders. In other words, my cynical side tells me the soft landing is marketed as a rescue for us all, but it’s really a smokescreen for a painless escape by the primary perpretators.

[patientrenter]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]…this is the government’s way of attempting a “soft landing” in terms of market valuation on those toxic assets.[/quote]

If I were not a cynic, Allan, I would believe this. My cynical side says that what’s really going on is redirecting the consequences of bad actions from the principal orchestraters and beneficiaries to the innocent bystanders. In other words, my cynical side tells me the soft landing is marketed as a rescue for us all, but it’s really a smokescreen for a painless escape by the primary perpretators.

[patientrenter]

[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]…this is the government’s way of attempting a “soft landing” in terms of market valuation on those toxic assets.[/quote]

If I were not a cynic, Allan, I would believe this. My cynical side says that what’s really going on is redirecting the consequences of bad actions from the principal orchestraters and beneficiaries to the innocent bystanders. In other words, my cynical side tells me the soft landing is marketed as a rescue for us all, but it’s really a smokescreen for a painless escape by the primary perpretators.

[SD Realtor]

Great points pr and Allan…

I guess what I was really trying to also illustrate is the potential for the tsunami to get swallowed up by the PPIP, or at least reduced. Lets say some player wants a 100B in assets. So he buys them at say 40%… Okay so 40B right? However if you follow the example in the PPIP he pays 20B of which he can get the Fed to finance some of that right? So at the end of the day the guy puts in what… 10B AT THE MOST right?

So why should he HAVE to put those properties on the market? Geez he could rent them out and make money couldn’t he? He probably does pretty darn well income wise… So then he holds them awhile and when the market turns he KILLS!

Anyways yes it is all really distressing… I learned a hell of alot from this cycle and am still learning every day. However what I learned was what I feared most, was that yes the little guy will get some crumbs, AND darn if you have to be ready to grab those crumbs when they come, but the big guys will always do better. Yes a few lambs were sacrificed but now I have to wait for some interest rate shock to happen before pricing is gonna come down to where I want it…

That bums me out and I hope I am wrong.

[SD Realtor]

Great points pr and Allan…

I guess what I was really trying to also illustrate is the potential for the tsunami to get swallowed up by the PPIP, or at least reduced. Lets say some player wants a 100B in assets. So he buys them at say 40%… Okay so 40B right? However if you follow the example in the PPIP he pays 20B of which he can get the Fed to finance some of that right? So at the end of the day the guy puts in what… 10B AT THE MOST right?

So why should he HAVE to put those properties on the market? Geez he could rent them out and make money couldn’t he? He probably does pretty darn well income wise… So then he holds them awhile and when the market turns he KILLS!

Anyways yes it is all really distressing… I learned a hell of alot from this cycle and am still learning every day. However what I learned was what I feared most, was that yes the little guy will get some crumbs, AND darn if you have to be ready to grab those crumbs when they come, but the big guys will always do better. Yes a few lambs were sacrificed but now I have to wait for some interest rate shock to happen before pricing is gonna come down to where I want it…

That bums me out and I hope I am wrong.

[SD Realtor]

Great points pr and Allan…

I guess what I was really trying to also illustrate is the potential for the tsunami to get swallowed up by the PPIP, or at least reduced. Lets say some player wants a 100B in assets. So he buys them at say 40%… Okay so 40B right? However if you follow the example in the PPIP he pays 20B of which he can get the Fed to finance some of that right? So at the end of the day the guy puts in what… 10B AT THE MOST right?

So why should he HAVE to put those properties on the market? Geez he could rent them out and make money couldn’t he? He probably does pretty darn well income wise… So then he holds them awhile and when the market turns he KILLS!

Anyways yes it is all really distressing… I learned a hell of alot from this cycle and am still learning every day. However what I learned was what I feared most, was that yes the little guy will get some crumbs, AND darn if you have to be ready to grab those crumbs when they come, but the big guys will always do better. Yes a few lambs were sacrificed but now I have to wait for some interest rate shock to happen before pricing is gonna come down to where I want it…

That bums me out and I hope I am wrong.

[SD Realtor]

Great points pr and Allan…

I guess what I was really trying to also illustrate is the potential for the tsunami to get swallowed up by the PPIP, or at least reduced. Lets say some player wants a 100B in assets. So he buys them at say 40%… Okay so 40B right? However if you follow the example in the PPIP he pays 20B of which he can get the Fed to finance some of that right? So at the end of the day the guy puts in what… 10B AT THE MOST right?

So why should he HAVE to put those properties on the market? Geez he could rent them out and make money couldn’t he? He probably does pretty darn well income wise… So then he holds them awhile and when the market turns he KILLS!

Anyways yes it is all really distressing… I learned a hell of alot from this cycle and am still learning every day. However what I learned was what I feared most, was that yes the little guy will get some crumbs, AND darn if you have to be ready to grab those crumbs when they come, but the big guys will always do better. Yes a few lambs were sacrificed but now I have to wait for some interest rate shock to happen before pricing is gonna come down to where I want it…

That bums me out and I hope I am wrong.

[SD Realtor]

Great points pr and Allan…

I guess what I was really trying to also illustrate is the potential for the tsunami to get swallowed up by the PPIP, or at least reduced. Lets say some player wants a 100B in assets. So he buys them at say 40%… Okay so 40B right? However if you follow the example in the PPIP he pays 20B of which he can get the Fed to finance some of that right? So at the end of the day the guy puts in what… 10B AT THE MOST right?

So why should he HAVE to put those properties on the market? Geez he could rent them out and make money couldn’t he? He probably does pretty darn well income wise… So then he holds them awhile and when the market turns he KILLS!

Anyways yes it is all really distressing… I learned a hell of alot from this cycle and am still learning every day. However what I learned was what I feared most, was that yes the little guy will get some crumbs, AND darn if you have to be ready to grab those crumbs when they come, but the big guys will always do better. Yes a few lambs were sacrificed but now I have to wait for some interest rate shock to happen before pricing is gonna come down to where I want it…

That bums me out and I hope I am wrong.

[patientrenter]

Patience, SDR. We can only be patient, and ready to pounce. It is very frustrating at times, but ya gotta distract yourself when that happens.

[patientrenter]

Patience, SDR. We can only be patient, and ready to pounce. It is very frustrating at times, but ya gotta distract yourself when that happens.

[patientrenter]

Patience, SDR. We can only be patient, and ready to pounce. It is very frustrating at times, but ya gotta distract yourself when that happens.

[patientrenter]

Patience, SDR. We can only be patient, and ready to pounce. It is very frustrating at times, but ya gotta distract yourself when that happens.

[Author]

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