What would be decline price in San Diego with in 6 months?

[DWCAP]

[quote=jficquette][quote=4plexowner]I’ll say it once again

Capitulation in 2012 with spike lows to or below 1998 price levels

Prices then bounce along the bottom for several years before appreciating at a few (3?) percent per year

Buying before 2010 is definitely knife catching

Will anyone believe me this time? Probably not but I’ll sleep better knowing that I tried …[/quote]

I agree about the 1998 prices.

John
[/quote]

Just to fix the facts, we are talking nominal here right? Not 1998 inflation adjusted? Meaning a 3/2 was $X in 1998m, and will be $X in 2012. Not $X+cpi inflation.

[4plexowner]

by 1998 prices I mean

price-to-income ratio

price-to-rent ratio

ie, people actually have to be able to afford houses before a bottom can be put in

“It’s the P/E stupid!”

[4plexowner]

by 1998 prices I mean

price-to-income ratio

price-to-rent ratio

ie, people actually have to be able to afford houses before a bottom can be put in

“It’s the P/E stupid!”

[4plexowner]

by 1998 prices I mean

price-to-income ratio

price-to-rent ratio

ie, people actually have to be able to afford houses before a bottom can be put in

“It’s the P/E stupid!”

[4plexowner]

by 1998 prices I mean

price-to-income ratio

price-to-rent ratio

ie, people actually have to be able to afford houses before a bottom can be put in

“It’s the P/E stupid!”

[4plexowner]

by 1998 prices I mean

price-to-income ratio

price-to-rent ratio

ie, people actually have to be able to afford houses before a bottom can be put in

“It’s the P/E stupid!”

[capeman]

We’re likely to see total capitulation in sentiment within 6 months.

[capeman]

We’re likely to see total capitulation in sentiment within 6 months.

[capeman]

We’re likely to see total capitulation in sentiment within 6 months.

[capeman]

We’re likely to see total capitulation in sentiment within 6 months.

[capeman]

We’re likely to see total capitulation in sentiment within 6 months.

[peterb]

I think total capitulation will take a little longer just by seeing all the people on this site that are still eager to buy at the “right” price. I still remember in 1995 that most people I talked with thought RE was a waste of money. I dont see that yet. In 1994 there were nice 2 bdrm condo’s on the beach in Newport Beach for $99K. And they were’nt selling. I think we’ll need a couple more false bottoms to get sentiment totally negative. All the people that thought a bottom was in need to buy and then see it drop another 25%. Basically, when I see just about everyone on this site saying to wait, then we’ll be near a bottom. Old beliefs die hard. I’d say another 2 years may do it.

[peterb]

I think total capitulation will take a little longer just by seeing all the people on this site that are still eager to buy at the “right” price. I still remember in 1995 that most people I talked with thought RE was a waste of money. I dont see that yet. In 1994 there were nice 2 bdrm condo’s on the beach in Newport Beach for $99K. And they were’nt selling. I think we’ll need a couple more false bottoms to get sentiment totally negative. All the people that thought a bottom was in need to buy and then see it drop another 25%. Basically, when I see just about everyone on this site saying to wait, then we’ll be near a bottom. Old beliefs die hard. I’d say another 2 years may do it.

[peterb]

I think total capitulation will take a little longer just by seeing all the people on this site that are still eager to buy at the “right” price. I still remember in 1995 that most people I talked with thought RE was a waste of money. I dont see that yet. In 1994 there were nice 2 bdrm condo’s on the beach in Newport Beach for $99K. And they were’nt selling. I think we’ll need a couple more false bottoms to get sentiment totally negative. All the people that thought a bottom was in need to buy and then see it drop another 25%. Basically, when I see just about everyone on this site saying to wait, then we’ll be near a bottom. Old beliefs die hard. I’d say another 2 years may do it.

[peterb]

I think total capitulation will take a little longer just by seeing all the people on this site that are still eager to buy at the “right” price. I still remember in 1995 that most people I talked with thought RE was a waste of money. I dont see that yet. In 1994 there were nice 2 bdrm condo’s on the beach in Newport Beach for $99K. And they were’nt selling. I think we’ll need a couple more false bottoms to get sentiment totally negative. All the people that thought a bottom was in need to buy and then see it drop another 25%. Basically, when I see just about everyone on this site saying to wait, then we’ll be near a bottom. Old beliefs die hard. I’d say another 2 years may do it.

[Author]

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