What would be decline price in San Diego with in 6 months?

[peterb]

I think total capitulation will take a little longer just by seeing all the people on this site that are still eager to buy at the “right” price. I still remember in 1995 that most people I talked with thought RE was a waste of money. I dont see that yet. In 1994 there were nice 2 bdrm condo’s on the beach in Newport Beach for $99K. And they were’nt selling. I think we’ll need a couple more false bottoms to get sentiment totally negative. All the people that thought a bottom was in need to buy and then see it drop another 25%. Basically, when I see just about everyone on this site saying to wait, then we’ll be near a bottom. Old beliefs die hard. I’d say another 2 years may do it.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=5yearwaiter][quote=FormerSanDiegan]”…few expects this is the OLY BOTTOM for San Diego- this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the currernt crisis.”

I’m sorry, I may be the only one, but I have no idea what is meant by this statement.

[/quote]

My bad it was typo :

Few people expect This is the ONLY BOTTOM for San Diego – which means no more price decline further.[/quote]

I still don’t understand.

Are you saying that few people expect that this is the only bottom, therefore we are more likely to be at a bottom.

OR are you saying that few people expect that this is the bottom (and simply defining the bottom as nor further price decline)

I still don;t understand the rest of the stateme, even with the typos corrected.
“this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the current crisis”

Anyway, as for the next 6 months :
I expect that the decline in dollar terms will slow and not be as steep between now and March 2009 as it was in the same period last year (Sept ’07 to March ’08), particularly for moderate priced areas (e.g. Clairemont Mira Mesa), simply because of the relationship of price to rent is coming in line with historical norms.

However, I’m guessing the higher end properties may see the largest declines of this housing cycle during the next 6 months.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=5yearwaiter][quote=FormerSanDiegan]”…few expects this is the OLY BOTTOM for San Diego- this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the currernt crisis.”

I’m sorry, I may be the only one, but I have no idea what is meant by this statement.

[/quote]

My bad it was typo :

Few people expect This is the ONLY BOTTOM for San Diego – which means no more price decline further.[/quote]

I still don’t understand.

Are you saying that few people expect that this is the only bottom, therefore we are more likely to be at a bottom.

OR are you saying that few people expect that this is the bottom (and simply defining the bottom as nor further price decline)

I still don;t understand the rest of the stateme, even with the typos corrected.
“this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the current crisis”

Anyway, as for the next 6 months :
I expect that the decline in dollar terms will slow and not be as steep between now and March 2009 as it was in the same period last year (Sept ’07 to March ’08), particularly for moderate priced areas (e.g. Clairemont Mira Mesa), simply because of the relationship of price to rent is coming in line with historical norms.

However, I’m guessing the higher end properties may see the largest declines of this housing cycle during the next 6 months.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=5yearwaiter][quote=FormerSanDiegan]”…few expects this is the OLY BOTTOM for San Diego- this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the currernt crisis.”

I’m sorry, I may be the only one, but I have no idea what is meant by this statement.

[/quote]

My bad it was typo :

Few people expect This is the ONLY BOTTOM for San Diego – which means no more price decline further.[/quote]

I still don’t understand.

Are you saying that few people expect that this is the only bottom, therefore we are more likely to be at a bottom.

OR are you saying that few people expect that this is the bottom (and simply defining the bottom as nor further price decline)

I still don;t understand the rest of the stateme, even with the typos corrected.
“this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the current crisis”

Anyway, as for the next 6 months :
I expect that the decline in dollar terms will slow and not be as steep between now and March 2009 as it was in the same period last year (Sept ’07 to March ’08), particularly for moderate priced areas (e.g. Clairemont Mira Mesa), simply because of the relationship of price to rent is coming in line with historical norms.

However, I’m guessing the higher end properties may see the largest declines of this housing cycle during the next 6 months.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=5yearwaiter][quote=FormerSanDiegan]”…few expects this is the OLY BOTTOM for San Diego- this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the currernt crisis.”

I’m sorry, I may be the only one, but I have no idea what is meant by this statement.

[/quote]

My bad it was typo :

Few people expect This is the ONLY BOTTOM for San Diego – which means no more price decline further.[/quote]

I still don’t understand.

Are you saying that few people expect that this is the only bottom, therefore we are more likely to be at a bottom.

OR are you saying that few people expect that this is the bottom (and simply defining the bottom as nor further price decline)

I still don;t understand the rest of the stateme, even with the typos corrected.
“this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the current crisis”

Anyway, as for the next 6 months :
I expect that the decline in dollar terms will slow and not be as steep between now and March 2009 as it was in the same period last year (Sept ’07 to March ’08), particularly for moderate priced areas (e.g. Clairemont Mira Mesa), simply because of the relationship of price to rent is coming in line with historical norms.

However, I’m guessing the higher end properties may see the largest declines of this housing cycle during the next 6 months.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=5yearwaiter][quote=FormerSanDiegan]”…few expects this is the OLY BOTTOM for San Diego- this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the currernt crisis.”

I’m sorry, I may be the only one, but I have no idea what is meant by this statement.

[/quote]

My bad it was typo :

Few people expect This is the ONLY BOTTOM for San Diego – which means no more price decline further.[/quote]

I still don’t understand.

Are you saying that few people expect that this is the only bottom, therefore we are more likely to be at a bottom.

OR are you saying that few people expect that this is the bottom (and simply defining the bottom as nor further price decline)

I still don;t understand the rest of the stateme, even with the typos corrected.
“this is kind of slogan I don’t want to hear compare to the current crisis”

Anyway, as for the next 6 months :
I expect that the decline in dollar terms will slow and not be as steep between now and March 2009 as it was in the same period last year (Sept ’07 to March ’08), particularly for moderate priced areas (e.g. Clairemont Mira Mesa), simply because of the relationship of price to rent is coming in line with historical norms.

However, I’m guessing the higher end properties may see the largest declines of this housing cycle during the next 6 months.

[SD Transplant]

JP Morgan just released some numbers for CA, but it could give us some insight of San Diego’s future:

Assuming Unemployment @ 7%
– CA prices might drop another 10% from now
or that would translate to 44% from the peak

Assuming Unemployment @ 8%:
– CA prices might drop another 24% from now
or that would translate to down way over 50% from the peak

Here it is:
“In a slide provided to investors late last night during a conference call covering its acquisition of Washington Mutual (WM: 1.215 -28.11%), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 47.88 +10.17%) clearly believes that there is further to fall in two key states, as well as nationwide — and potentially much further to fall, depending on economic conditions.

The firm said it current expects home prices nationwide to fall another 8 percent from current levels, assuming unemployment of 7 percent; its estimates for California and Florida, however, were more severe. JP Morgan said that its base-case suggests another 10 percent in price declines in California, while prices in Florida may fall another 16 percent.

The expectations for a further drop translate into a 25 percent peak-to-trough drop in prices nationwide; prices in California and Florida will have fallen 44 percent in such a scenario, the company suggested.

Should unemployment reach 8 percent — the scenario for a severe recession, under JP Morgan’s estimation — those price declines would be much worse. In such a case, California could see home prices fall another 24 percent from current levels, while Florida would drop 36 percent and nationally home prices would fall 20 percent from where they are currently. Such a worst-case scenario would drive an extra $54 billion in losses in the WaMu loan portfolio, were it to pass.”

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/09/26/jp-morgan-calif-florida-face-further-home-price-declines/

[SD Transplant]

JP Morgan just released some numbers for CA, but it could give us some insight of San Diego’s future:

Assuming Unemployment @ 7%
– CA prices might drop another 10% from now
or that would translate to 44% from the peak

Assuming Unemployment @ 8%:
– CA prices might drop another 24% from now
or that would translate to down way over 50% from the peak

Here it is:
“In a slide provided to investors late last night during a conference call covering its acquisition of Washington Mutual (WM: 1.215 -28.11%), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 47.88 +10.17%) clearly believes that there is further to fall in two key states, as well as nationwide — and potentially much further to fall, depending on economic conditions.

The firm said it current expects home prices nationwide to fall another 8 percent from current levels, assuming unemployment of 7 percent; its estimates for California and Florida, however, were more severe. JP Morgan said that its base-case suggests another 10 percent in price declines in California, while prices in Florida may fall another 16 percent.

The expectations for a further drop translate into a 25 percent peak-to-trough drop in prices nationwide; prices in California and Florida will have fallen 44 percent in such a scenario, the company suggested.

Should unemployment reach 8 percent — the scenario for a severe recession, under JP Morgan’s estimation — those price declines would be much worse. In such a case, California could see home prices fall another 24 percent from current levels, while Florida would drop 36 percent and nationally home prices would fall 20 percent from where they are currently. Such a worst-case scenario would drive an extra $54 billion in losses in the WaMu loan portfolio, were it to pass.”

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/09/26/jp-morgan-calif-florida-face-further-home-price-declines/

[SD Transplant]

JP Morgan just released some numbers for CA, but it could give us some insight of San Diego’s future:

Assuming Unemployment @ 7%
– CA prices might drop another 10% from now
or that would translate to 44% from the peak

Assuming Unemployment @ 8%:
– CA prices might drop another 24% from now
or that would translate to down way over 50% from the peak

Here it is:
“In a slide provided to investors late last night during a conference call covering its acquisition of Washington Mutual (WM: 1.215 -28.11%), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 47.88 +10.17%) clearly believes that there is further to fall in two key states, as well as nationwide — and potentially much further to fall, depending on economic conditions.

The firm said it current expects home prices nationwide to fall another 8 percent from current levels, assuming unemployment of 7 percent; its estimates for California and Florida, however, were more severe. JP Morgan said that its base-case suggests another 10 percent in price declines in California, while prices in Florida may fall another 16 percent.

The expectations for a further drop translate into a 25 percent peak-to-trough drop in prices nationwide; prices in California and Florida will have fallen 44 percent in such a scenario, the company suggested.

Should unemployment reach 8 percent — the scenario for a severe recession, under JP Morgan’s estimation — those price declines would be much worse. In such a case, California could see home prices fall another 24 percent from current levels, while Florida would drop 36 percent and nationally home prices would fall 20 percent from where they are currently. Such a worst-case scenario would drive an extra $54 billion in losses in the WaMu loan portfolio, were it to pass.”

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/09/26/jp-morgan-calif-florida-face-further-home-price-declines/

[SD Transplant]

JP Morgan just released some numbers for CA, but it could give us some insight of San Diego’s future:

Assuming Unemployment @ 7%
– CA prices might drop another 10% from now
or that would translate to 44% from the peak

Assuming Unemployment @ 8%:
– CA prices might drop another 24% from now
or that would translate to down way over 50% from the peak

Here it is:
“In a slide provided to investors late last night during a conference call covering its acquisition of Washington Mutual (WM: 1.215 -28.11%), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 47.88 +10.17%) clearly believes that there is further to fall in two key states, as well as nationwide — and potentially much further to fall, depending on economic conditions.

The firm said it current expects home prices nationwide to fall another 8 percent from current levels, assuming unemployment of 7 percent; its estimates for California and Florida, however, were more severe. JP Morgan said that its base-case suggests another 10 percent in price declines in California, while prices in Florida may fall another 16 percent.

The expectations for a further drop translate into a 25 percent peak-to-trough drop in prices nationwide; prices in California and Florida will have fallen 44 percent in such a scenario, the company suggested.

Should unemployment reach 8 percent — the scenario for a severe recession, under JP Morgan’s estimation — those price declines would be much worse. In such a case, California could see home prices fall another 24 percent from current levels, while Florida would drop 36 percent and nationally home prices would fall 20 percent from where they are currently. Such a worst-case scenario would drive an extra $54 billion in losses in the WaMu loan portfolio, were it to pass.”

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/09/26/jp-morgan-calif-florida-face-further-home-price-declines/

[SD Transplant]

JP Morgan just released some numbers for CA, but it could give us some insight of San Diego’s future:

Assuming Unemployment @ 7%
– CA prices might drop another 10% from now
or that would translate to 44% from the peak

Assuming Unemployment @ 8%:
– CA prices might drop another 24% from now
or that would translate to down way over 50% from the peak

Here it is:
“In a slide provided to investors late last night during a conference call covering its acquisition of Washington Mutual (WM: 1.215 -28.11%), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 47.88 +10.17%) clearly believes that there is further to fall in two key states, as well as nationwide — and potentially much further to fall, depending on economic conditions.

The firm said it current expects home prices nationwide to fall another 8 percent from current levels, assuming unemployment of 7 percent; its estimates for California and Florida, however, were more severe. JP Morgan said that its base-case suggests another 10 percent in price declines in California, while prices in Florida may fall another 16 percent.

The expectations for a further drop translate into a 25 percent peak-to-trough drop in prices nationwide; prices in California and Florida will have fallen 44 percent in such a scenario, the company suggested.

Should unemployment reach 8 percent — the scenario for a severe recession, under JP Morgan’s estimation — those price declines would be much worse. In such a case, California could see home prices fall another 24 percent from current levels, while Florida would drop 36 percent and nationally home prices would fall 20 percent from where they are currently. Such a worst-case scenario would drive an extra $54 billion in losses in the WaMu loan portfolio, were it to pass.”

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/09/26/jp-morgan-calif-florida-face-further-home-price-declines/

[Ex-SD]

J.P. Morgan’s predictions are way off. Just sit back and enjoy the ride for about three more years and you’ll see prices below what we saw in 1997.

[Ex-SD]

J.P. Morgan’s predictions are way off. Just sit back and enjoy the ride for about three more years and you’ll see prices below what we saw in 1997.

[Ex-SD]

J.P. Morgan’s predictions are way off. Just sit back and enjoy the ride for about three more years and you’ll see prices below what we saw in 1997.

[Ex-SD]

J.P. Morgan’s predictions are way off. Just sit back and enjoy the ride for about three more years and you’ll see prices below what we saw in 1997.

[Author]

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