Update: YOY SD RE Inventory continues to go further negative. Down 3.2%

[schizo2buyORnot]

SD R,

Well said. As I posted in response to cooprider the inventory is only half the equation. The problem is that the other side of the equation . . . demand . . . is much harder to measure. The MLS accurately enumerates the actual supply for sale at any given moment. Arguments of impending explosions in inventory due to “phantom inventory” or “ARM reset waves” have been made for over 12 months here and yet the inventory has shrunk. That doesn’t mean that such phenomena won’t bloat the inventory in the future but so far it hasn’t. I’m more of a “show me the money” type when it comes to data. I fully agree that the demand side while hard to quantify is definitely weak. Unfortuneately all you have is either stale hard data (closed sales) or anecedotal current data (broker traffic). I was actually part of the demand last month when I lost out on a lowball bid on a REO in 4S. Even I have since backed off and am continuing to wait for now even as I closely watch and monitor all relevant data. No doubt inventory levels is one dimension but a very important one. Put me in the Pig camp of one who has the money to buy, will buy at some point in the future, and am actively assessing all data in advance of perhaps the most important financial decision I will make in my life. I get the sense that many of these other types are just in the camp of attack even hard data if it suggests anything other than Armageddon is coming to the SD housing market. Their as hapless as the fools that piled in at the top in the sense that this sort of attitude will probably mean the will miss the bottom, assuming they even have the resources to by SD RE at any level and aren’t here just grave dancing

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[an]

perma(bull/bear) are people who will flat out dismiss any data given that challenge their position and cherry pick or spin other data to support their position. To me, permabulls will always miss the top and permabears will always miss the bottom. Permabulls will think that falling from top is just a healthy profit taking and we’ll start running again. While permabears will see the rise from the bottom as nothing more than just dead cat bounce and we’ll start to fall again. So, LBC, are you a permabear or just a realist like most of us here on Pigg? Only you can say what you are. Most of us here are just trying to gather as much DATA as we can and interpret them. This is just another piece of the puzzle. Like it or not, it’s going in the direction that we don’t want it to. Data doesn’t imply anything, it is what it is.

[an]

perma(bull/bear) are people who will flat out dismiss any data given that challenge their position and cherry pick or spin other data to support their position. To me, permabulls will always miss the top and permabears will always miss the bottom. Permabulls will think that falling from top is just a healthy profit taking and we’ll start running again. While permabears will see the rise from the bottom as nothing more than just dead cat bounce and we’ll start to fall again. So, LBC, are you a permabear or just a realist like most of us here on Pigg? Only you can say what you are. Most of us here are just trying to gather as much DATA as we can and interpret them. This is just another piece of the puzzle. Like it or not, it’s going in the direction that we don’t want it to. Data doesn’t imply anything, it is what it is.

[an]

perma(bull/bear) are people who will flat out dismiss any data given that challenge their position and cherry pick or spin other data to support their position. To me, permabulls will always miss the top and permabears will always miss the bottom. Permabulls will think that falling from top is just a healthy profit taking and we’ll start running again. While permabears will see the rise from the bottom as nothing more than just dead cat bounce and we’ll start to fall again. So, LBC, are you a permabear or just a realist like most of us here on Pigg? Only you can say what you are. Most of us here are just trying to gather as much DATA as we can and interpret them. This is just another piece of the puzzle. Like it or not, it’s going in the direction that we don’t want it to. Data doesn’t imply anything, it is what it is.

[an]

perma(bull/bear) are people who will flat out dismiss any data given that challenge their position and cherry pick or spin other data to support their position. To me, permabulls will always miss the top and permabears will always miss the bottom. Permabulls will think that falling from top is just a healthy profit taking and we’ll start running again. While permabears will see the rise from the bottom as nothing more than just dead cat bounce and we’ll start to fall again. So, LBC, are you a permabear or just a realist like most of us here on Pigg? Only you can say what you are. Most of us here are just trying to gather as much DATA as we can and interpret them. This is just another piece of the puzzle. Like it or not, it’s going in the direction that we don’t want it to. Data doesn’t imply anything, it is what it is.

[an]

perma(bull/bear) are people who will flat out dismiss any data given that challenge their position and cherry pick or spin other data to support their position. To me, permabulls will always miss the top and permabears will always miss the bottom. Permabulls will think that falling from top is just a healthy profit taking and we’ll start running again. While permabears will see the rise from the bottom as nothing more than just dead cat bounce and we’ll start to fall again. So, LBC, are you a permabear or just a realist like most of us here on Pigg? Only you can say what you are. Most of us here are just trying to gather as much DATA as we can and interpret them. This is just another piece of the puzzle. Like it or not, it’s going in the direction that we don’t want it to. Data doesn’t imply anything, it is what it is.

[cr]

Looks like I hit a sore spot.

Schizo, you brought facts that many here question. Your assumption that the phantom inventory doesn’t exist is not fact based.

One reason I agree with the phantom invntory idea is from looking at Countrywide REOs in my city. CW has been rocked, was one of the biggest culprits in the mortgage mess, and probably owns more REOs than anyone. Yet in the last several months their REO listings have decreased. Couple that with banks hoarding inventory the answer seems pretty obvious.

You said, “The MLS accurately enumerates the actual supply for sale at any given moment.” How do you know? Some Realtors are telling people not to even list their houses right now.

I personally don’t care either way if the MLS is right because I think the bottom is still a ways off.

You want to measure demand take a look at the drop in mortgage applications, but save your flaming comments. When you make the same claim every month while prices continue to drop you start to sound like Chamberlain. You’re also ignoring how much prices have dropped, ironic considering your claimed expertise on Ecnomics 101.

You talk a big game schizo, why don’t put your money where your typing is and jump in a buy if you’re so convinced inventory is past its peak? Just don’t flame me when the house down the street sells for less 6 months later.

[cr]

Looks like I hit a sore spot.

Schizo, you brought facts that many here question. Your assumption that the phantom inventory doesn’t exist is not fact based.

One reason I agree with the phantom invntory idea is from looking at Countrywide REOs in my city. CW has been rocked, was one of the biggest culprits in the mortgage mess, and probably owns more REOs than anyone. Yet in the last several months their REO listings have decreased. Couple that with banks hoarding inventory the answer seems pretty obvious.

You said, “The MLS accurately enumerates the actual supply for sale at any given moment.” How do you know? Some Realtors are telling people not to even list their houses right now.

I personally don’t care either way if the MLS is right because I think the bottom is still a ways off.

You want to measure demand take a look at the drop in mortgage applications, but save your flaming comments. When you make the same claim every month while prices continue to drop you start to sound like Chamberlain. You’re also ignoring how much prices have dropped, ironic considering your claimed expertise on Ecnomics 101.

You talk a big game schizo, why don’t put your money where your typing is and jump in a buy if you’re so convinced inventory is past its peak? Just don’t flame me when the house down the street sells for less 6 months later.

[cr]

Looks like I hit a sore spot.

Schizo, you brought facts that many here question. Your assumption that the phantom inventory doesn’t exist is not fact based.

One reason I agree with the phantom invntory idea is from looking at Countrywide REOs in my city. CW has been rocked, was one of the biggest culprits in the mortgage mess, and probably owns more REOs than anyone. Yet in the last several months their REO listings have decreased. Couple that with banks hoarding inventory the answer seems pretty obvious.

You said, “The MLS accurately enumerates the actual supply for sale at any given moment.” How do you know? Some Realtors are telling people not to even list their houses right now.

I personally don’t care either way if the MLS is right because I think the bottom is still a ways off.

You want to measure demand take a look at the drop in mortgage applications, but save your flaming comments. When you make the same claim every month while prices continue to drop you start to sound like Chamberlain. You’re also ignoring how much prices have dropped, ironic considering your claimed expertise on Ecnomics 101.

You talk a big game schizo, why don’t put your money where your typing is and jump in a buy if you’re so convinced inventory is past its peak? Just don’t flame me when the house down the street sells for less 6 months later.

[cr]

Looks like I hit a sore spot.

Schizo, you brought facts that many here question. Your assumption that the phantom inventory doesn’t exist is not fact based.

One reason I agree with the phantom invntory idea is from looking at Countrywide REOs in my city. CW has been rocked, was one of the biggest culprits in the mortgage mess, and probably owns more REOs than anyone. Yet in the last several months their REO listings have decreased. Couple that with banks hoarding inventory the answer seems pretty obvious.

You said, “The MLS accurately enumerates the actual supply for sale at any given moment.” How do you know? Some Realtors are telling people not to even list their houses right now.

I personally don’t care either way if the MLS is right because I think the bottom is still a ways off.

You want to measure demand take a look at the drop in mortgage applications, but save your flaming comments. When you make the same claim every month while prices continue to drop you start to sound like Chamberlain. You’re also ignoring how much prices have dropped, ironic considering your claimed expertise on Ecnomics 101.

You talk a big game schizo, why don’t put your money where your typing is and jump in a buy if you’re so convinced inventory is past its peak? Just don’t flame me when the house down the street sells for less 6 months later.

[cr]

Looks like I hit a sore spot.

Schizo, you brought facts that many here question. Your assumption that the phantom inventory doesn’t exist is not fact based.

One reason I agree with the phantom invntory idea is from looking at Countrywide REOs in my city. CW has been rocked, was one of the biggest culprits in the mortgage mess, and probably owns more REOs than anyone. Yet in the last several months their REO listings have decreased. Couple that with banks hoarding inventory the answer seems pretty obvious.

You said, “The MLS accurately enumerates the actual supply for sale at any given moment.” How do you know? Some Realtors are telling people not to even list their houses right now.

I personally don’t care either way if the MLS is right because I think the bottom is still a ways off.

You want to measure demand take a look at the drop in mortgage applications, but save your flaming comments. When you make the same claim every month while prices continue to drop you start to sound like Chamberlain. You’re also ignoring how much prices have dropped, ironic considering your claimed expertise on Ecnomics 101.

You talk a big game schizo, why don’t put your money where your typing is and jump in a buy if you’re so convinced inventory is past its peak? Just don’t flame me when the house down the street sells for less 6 months later.

[schizo2buyORnot]

Coop,

I probably shouldn’t even waste my time replying to your sophomoric drivel but since I have a spare moment.

“Your assumption that the phantom inventory doesn’t exist is not fact based.” OK . . . so show me the “facts” that it does exist. Facts that is . . . .

“You want to measure demand take a look at the drop in mortgage applications.” I would welcome factual data that current mortgage applications are down or up YOY. Please post such “facts” if you have them or if they exist.

“When you make the same claim every month while prices continue to drop . . . You’re also ignoring how much prices have dropped.” Duh . . . prices have dropped. I have never said we are at a botton. Merely one of the several factors required to make a bottom, which was previously not in place, is now beginning to occur . . . declining inventory. Other factors are not present thus . . . no bottom yet. So exactly how is a past price drop relevant to a potential buyer trying to assess the current direction of the market????

“why don’t put your money where your typing is and jump in a buy if you’re so convinced inventory is past its peak?” This is where you really sound like a sophomoric A$$. “Yeah . . . come on . . . I call ya out . . . I dare ya.” This may have impressed your friends in elementary school but most here are looking for a little more in the form of enlightening analysis/facts.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

Coop,

I probably shouldn’t even waste my time replying to your sophomoric drivel but since I have a spare moment.

“Your assumption that the phantom inventory doesn’t exist is not fact based.” OK . . . so show me the “facts” that it does exist. Facts that is . . . .

“You want to measure demand take a look at the drop in mortgage applications.” I would welcome factual data that current mortgage applications are down or up YOY. Please post such “facts” if you have them or if they exist.

“When you make the same claim every month while prices continue to drop . . . You’re also ignoring how much prices have dropped.” Duh . . . prices have dropped. I have never said we are at a botton. Merely one of the several factors required to make a bottom, which was previously not in place, is now beginning to occur . . . declining inventory. Other factors are not present thus . . . no bottom yet. So exactly how is a past price drop relevant to a potential buyer trying to assess the current direction of the market????

“why don’t put your money where your typing is and jump in a buy if you’re so convinced inventory is past its peak?” This is where you really sound like a sophomoric A$$. “Yeah . . . come on . . . I call ya out . . . I dare ya.” This may have impressed your friends in elementary school but most here are looking for a little more in the form of enlightening analysis/facts.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

Coop,

I probably shouldn’t even waste my time replying to your sophomoric drivel but since I have a spare moment.

“Your assumption that the phantom inventory doesn’t exist is not fact based.” OK . . . so show me the “facts” that it does exist. Facts that is . . . .

“You want to measure demand take a look at the drop in mortgage applications.” I would welcome factual data that current mortgage applications are down or up YOY. Please post such “facts” if you have them or if they exist.

“When you make the same claim every month while prices continue to drop . . . You’re also ignoring how much prices have dropped.” Duh . . . prices have dropped. I have never said we are at a botton. Merely one of the several factors required to make a bottom, which was previously not in place, is now beginning to occur . . . declining inventory. Other factors are not present thus . . . no bottom yet. So exactly how is a past price drop relevant to a potential buyer trying to assess the current direction of the market????

“why don’t put your money where your typing is and jump in a buy if you’re so convinced inventory is past its peak?” This is where you really sound like a sophomoric A$$. “Yeah . . . come on . . . I call ya out . . . I dare ya.” This may have impressed your friends in elementary school but most here are looking for a little more in the form of enlightening analysis/facts.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

Coop,

I probably shouldn’t even waste my time replying to your sophomoric drivel but since I have a spare moment.

“Your assumption that the phantom inventory doesn’t exist is not fact based.” OK . . . so show me the “facts” that it does exist. Facts that is . . . .

“You want to measure demand take a look at the drop in mortgage applications.” I would welcome factual data that current mortgage applications are down or up YOY. Please post such “facts” if you have them or if they exist.

“When you make the same claim every month while prices continue to drop . . . You’re also ignoring how much prices have dropped.” Duh . . . prices have dropped. I have never said we are at a botton. Merely one of the several factors required to make a bottom, which was previously not in place, is now beginning to occur . . . declining inventory. Other factors are not present thus . . . no bottom yet. So exactly how is a past price drop relevant to a potential buyer trying to assess the current direction of the market????

“why don’t put your money where your typing is and jump in a buy if you’re so convinced inventory is past its peak?” This is where you really sound like a sophomoric A$$. “Yeah . . . come on . . . I call ya out . . . I dare ya.” This may have impressed your friends in elementary school but most here are looking for a little more in the form of enlightening analysis/facts.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[Author]

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