Update: YOY SD RE Inventory continues to go further negative. Down 3.2%

[Anonymous]

The MLS inventory is suspect, because there is evidence that a majority of the bank-owned homes are not on the MLS. I forgot where I read it, but somebody claimed that out of the 6000 bank-owned homes in the area, only 2000 are listed on the MLS. If that’s true then there is a glut of must-sell homes sitting vacant.

Bank-owned properties and short sales are currently the real-estate market for San Diego. As long as we keep hitting record foreclosure numbers, my guess is that prices will continue to drop and then stagnate once the foreclosures come back to normal levels. A 4-5 year stagnation would be a significant price drop in real terms. If there is some major government bail-out I think that the nominal price drop will be less, but the stagnation period will be longer and we’ll end up with a similar real price drop in the end.

[nostradamus]

Wrong. MLS-listed inventory may be shrinking. In this market, which is REO and short sale driven, we need to look at the inventory of bank-owned homes, short sales, and NODs. Can you post that before you say inventory is shrinking? I just want the facts.

Check out Mr. Mortgage, his inventory numbers include REO and short sale and he says we have 4.25 years of inventory on hand.

This article directly debunks the myth that inventory is shrinking. The research includes such mls-ignored facts as actual numbers of shadow inventory.

[nostradamus]

Wrong. MLS-listed inventory may be shrinking. In this market, which is REO and short sale driven, we need to look at the inventory of bank-owned homes, short sales, and NODs. Can you post that before you say inventory is shrinking? I just want the facts.

Check out Mr. Mortgage, his inventory numbers include REO and short sale and he says we have 4.25 years of inventory on hand.

This article directly debunks the myth that inventory is shrinking. The research includes such mls-ignored facts as actual numbers of shadow inventory.

[nostradamus]

Wrong. MLS-listed inventory may be shrinking. In this market, which is REO and short sale driven, we need to look at the inventory of bank-owned homes, short sales, and NODs. Can you post that before you say inventory is shrinking? I just want the facts.

Check out Mr. Mortgage, his inventory numbers include REO and short sale and he says we have 4.25 years of inventory on hand.

This article directly debunks the myth that inventory is shrinking. The research includes such mls-ignored facts as actual numbers of shadow inventory.

[nostradamus]

Wrong. MLS-listed inventory may be shrinking. In this market, which is REO and short sale driven, we need to look at the inventory of bank-owned homes, short sales, and NODs. Can you post that before you say inventory is shrinking? I just want the facts.

Check out Mr. Mortgage, his inventory numbers include REO and short sale and he says we have 4.25 years of inventory on hand.

This article directly debunks the myth that inventory is shrinking. The research includes such mls-ignored facts as actual numbers of shadow inventory.

[nostradamus]

Wrong. MLS-listed inventory may be shrinking. In this market, which is REO and short sale driven, we need to look at the inventory of bank-owned homes, short sales, and NODs. Can you post that before you say inventory is shrinking? I just want the facts.

Check out Mr. Mortgage, his inventory numbers include REO and short sale and he says we have 4.25 years of inventory on hand.

This article directly debunks the myth that inventory is shrinking. The research includes such mls-ignored facts as actual numbers of shadow inventory.

[Ex-SD]

I read an article a couple of days ago on MSNBC or CNN (can’t remember which) that said that the majority of realtors in Stockton, Merced and Sacramento wouldn’t take any new listings since there were too many homes that weren’t selling. I don’t know if there’s any of that going on in SD. So, in addition to what the posters above my post have listed, I don’t think it means too much at this point. If the inventory starts dropping heavily and the sales are also increasing at a heavy rate, then this will be much more meaningful.

[Ex-SD]

I read an article a couple of days ago on MSNBC or CNN (can’t remember which) that said that the majority of realtors in Stockton, Merced and Sacramento wouldn’t take any new listings since there were too many homes that weren’t selling. I don’t know if there’s any of that going on in SD. So, in addition to what the posters above my post have listed, I don’t think it means too much at this point. If the inventory starts dropping heavily and the sales are also increasing at a heavy rate, then this will be much more meaningful.

[Ex-SD]

I read an article a couple of days ago on MSNBC or CNN (can’t remember which) that said that the majority of realtors in Stockton, Merced and Sacramento wouldn’t take any new listings since there were too many homes that weren’t selling. I don’t know if there’s any of that going on in SD. So, in addition to what the posters above my post have listed, I don’t think it means too much at this point. If the inventory starts dropping heavily and the sales are also increasing at a heavy rate, then this will be much more meaningful.

[Ex-SD]

I read an article a couple of days ago on MSNBC or CNN (can’t remember which) that said that the majority of realtors in Stockton, Merced and Sacramento wouldn’t take any new listings since there were too many homes that weren’t selling. I don’t know if there’s any of that going on in SD. So, in addition to what the posters above my post have listed, I don’t think it means too much at this point. If the inventory starts dropping heavily and the sales are also increasing at a heavy rate, then this will be much more meaningful.

[Ex-SD]

I read an article a couple of days ago on MSNBC or CNN (can’t remember which) that said that the majority of realtors in Stockton, Merced and Sacramento wouldn’t take any new listings since there were too many homes that weren’t selling. I don’t know if there’s any of that going on in SD. So, in addition to what the posters above my post have listed, I don’t think it means too much at this point. If the inventory starts dropping heavily and the sales are also increasing at a heavy rate, then this will be much more meaningful.

[DWCAP]

Nothing about sales? They tell you the median price, and how much is for sale, but not how many are really selling. (at least I missed it) I mean inventory is down 3.2% yoy, but sales are down,,,, what,,,,, 18%? So even if inventory is falling alittle, sales are falling faster, meaning that total months of inventory is up.

WHo cares if we only have 10 houses for sale in all of SD? If we only sell 1 house a year, we have 10 years of inventory sitting around. Sure is gonna be a long wait for that 10th house to sell. Think maybe they may try to “jump ahead” in line by cutting price alittle?

[DWCAP]

Nothing about sales? They tell you the median price, and how much is for sale, but not how many are really selling. (at least I missed it) I mean inventory is down 3.2% yoy, but sales are down,,,, what,,,,, 18%? So even if inventory is falling alittle, sales are falling faster, meaning that total months of inventory is up.

WHo cares if we only have 10 houses for sale in all of SD? If we only sell 1 house a year, we have 10 years of inventory sitting around. Sure is gonna be a long wait for that 10th house to sell. Think maybe they may try to “jump ahead” in line by cutting price alittle?

[DWCAP]

Nothing about sales? They tell you the median price, and how much is for sale, but not how many are really selling. (at least I missed it) I mean inventory is down 3.2% yoy, but sales are down,,,, what,,,,, 18%? So even if inventory is falling alittle, sales are falling faster, meaning that total months of inventory is up.

WHo cares if we only have 10 houses for sale in all of SD? If we only sell 1 house a year, we have 10 years of inventory sitting around. Sure is gonna be a long wait for that 10th house to sell. Think maybe they may try to “jump ahead” in line by cutting price alittle?

[DWCAP]

Nothing about sales? They tell you the median price, and how much is for sale, but not how many are really selling. (at least I missed it) I mean inventory is down 3.2% yoy, but sales are down,,,, what,,,,, 18%? So even if inventory is falling alittle, sales are falling faster, meaning that total months of inventory is up.

WHo cares if we only have 10 houses for sale in all of SD? If we only sell 1 house a year, we have 10 years of inventory sitting around. Sure is gonna be a long wait for that 10th house to sell. Think maybe they may try to “jump ahead” in line by cutting price alittle?

[Author]

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