This never ends : “CA Foreclosure Prevention Act Coming Up”

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=10909|title=There’s a light up ahead!!!|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=366|height=264]

Look guys, there’s a light up ahead!!!

This picture is on the cover of this month’s Economist magazine

[NotCranky]

[quote=scaredycat]is it equilibrium or a sudden fake halt to the inevitable? It seems like there’s a lot of risk involved in an inherently unstable, falsely balanced set up that doesn’t depend on nomral market pressures. Some external shock, any shock, could be enough to destablize such a jerry-rigged system. [/quote]

I don’t know anything for sure Scaredycat. Just looking at the various potentialities like anyone else is.There is a ‘war for the floor” going on. A lot of air is out of inflated prices.
With all due respect to data, there will never be a complete lack of instinct in getting these calls right …or failed instinct in getting them wrong.

Before I get slaughtered I’ll say, it’s not a big deal either way. No one has to buy a house and if anything, I think the market will become more stable, maybe after some lesser hiccups. Obviously prices for houses that are very expensive for the average joe, like me, will continue to compress down.

There is still a good deal of price declines to come in a spread of less expensive houses too. It is a little tricky to try to discern which and to what extent now. I think it is approximating “no big deal” status for many.

[NotCranky]

[quote=scaredycat]is it equilibrium or a sudden fake halt to the inevitable? It seems like there’s a lot of risk involved in an inherently unstable, falsely balanced set up that doesn’t depend on nomral market pressures. Some external shock, any shock, could be enough to destablize such a jerry-rigged system. [/quote]

I don’t know anything for sure Scaredycat. Just looking at the various potentialities like anyone else is.There is a ‘war for the floor” going on. A lot of air is out of inflated prices.
With all due respect to data, there will never be a complete lack of instinct in getting these calls right …or failed instinct in getting them wrong.

Before I get slaughtered I’ll say, it’s not a big deal either way. No one has to buy a house and if anything, I think the market will become more stable, maybe after some lesser hiccups. Obviously prices for houses that are very expensive for the average joe, like me, will continue to compress down.

There is still a good deal of price declines to come in a spread of less expensive houses too. It is a little tricky to try to discern which and to what extent now. I think it is approximating “no big deal” status for many.

[NotCranky]

[quote=scaredycat]is it equilibrium or a sudden fake halt to the inevitable? It seems like there’s a lot of risk involved in an inherently unstable, falsely balanced set up that doesn’t depend on nomral market pressures. Some external shock, any shock, could be enough to destablize such a jerry-rigged system. [/quote]

I don’t know anything for sure Scaredycat. Just looking at the various potentialities like anyone else is.There is a ‘war for the floor” going on. A lot of air is out of inflated prices.
With all due respect to data, there will never be a complete lack of instinct in getting these calls right …or failed instinct in getting them wrong.

Before I get slaughtered I’ll say, it’s not a big deal either way. No one has to buy a house and if anything, I think the market will become more stable, maybe after some lesser hiccups. Obviously prices for houses that are very expensive for the average joe, like me, will continue to compress down.

There is still a good deal of price declines to come in a spread of less expensive houses too. It is a little tricky to try to discern which and to what extent now. I think it is approximating “no big deal” status for many.

[NotCranky]

[quote=scaredycat]is it equilibrium or a sudden fake halt to the inevitable? It seems like there’s a lot of risk involved in an inherently unstable, falsely balanced set up that doesn’t depend on nomral market pressures. Some external shock, any shock, could be enough to destablize such a jerry-rigged system. [/quote]

I don’t know anything for sure Scaredycat. Just looking at the various potentialities like anyone else is.There is a ‘war for the floor” going on. A lot of air is out of inflated prices.
With all due respect to data, there will never be a complete lack of instinct in getting these calls right …or failed instinct in getting them wrong.

Before I get slaughtered I’ll say, it’s not a big deal either way. No one has to buy a house and if anything, I think the market will become more stable, maybe after some lesser hiccups. Obviously prices for houses that are very expensive for the average joe, like me, will continue to compress down.

There is still a good deal of price declines to come in a spread of less expensive houses too. It is a little tricky to try to discern which and to what extent now. I think it is approximating “no big deal” status for many.

[NotCranky]

[quote=scaredycat]is it equilibrium or a sudden fake halt to the inevitable? It seems like there’s a lot of risk involved in an inherently unstable, falsely balanced set up that doesn’t depend on nomral market pressures. Some external shock, any shock, could be enough to destablize such a jerry-rigged system. [/quote]

I don’t know anything for sure Scaredycat. Just looking at the various potentialities like anyone else is.There is a ‘war for the floor” going on. A lot of air is out of inflated prices.
With all due respect to data, there will never be a complete lack of instinct in getting these calls right …or failed instinct in getting them wrong.

Before I get slaughtered I’ll say, it’s not a big deal either way. No one has to buy a house and if anything, I think the market will become more stable, maybe after some lesser hiccups. Obviously prices for houses that are very expensive for the average joe, like me, will continue to compress down.

There is still a good deal of price declines to come in a spread of less expensive houses too. It is a little tricky to try to discern which and to what extent now. I think it is approximating “no big deal” status for many.

[NotCranky]

Scaredycat, With regards to your idea that a “big shock” will knock this thing out of a phony “equilibrium” once it gets there:

Way back when on this blog people used to use the turning of a large ship analogy for when the price declines would start in earnest. That ship got turned around. It is still a big ship. The gov. has the tug boats hooked up but they are working in stormy weather. Things are dicey from this perspective…maybe a few lines snap and a tail wind is still pushing on the ships bulk, but the ship is not going to break loose and hit top speed all the sudden. They will hold it until the bigger tug boats or more favorable weather come to aid… or the thing gets washed into the rocks and flips on its side and dies. I guess we can take a poll.

[NotCranky]

Scaredycat, With regards to your idea that a “big shock” will knock this thing out of a phony “equilibrium” once it gets there:

Way back when on this blog people used to use the turning of a large ship analogy for when the price declines would start in earnest. That ship got turned around. It is still a big ship. The gov. has the tug boats hooked up but they are working in stormy weather. Things are dicey from this perspective…maybe a few lines snap and a tail wind is still pushing on the ships bulk, but the ship is not going to break loose and hit top speed all the sudden. They will hold it until the bigger tug boats or more favorable weather come to aid… or the thing gets washed into the rocks and flips on its side and dies. I guess we can take a poll.

[NotCranky]

Scaredycat, With regards to your idea that a “big shock” will knock this thing out of a phony “equilibrium” once it gets there:

Way back when on this blog people used to use the turning of a large ship analogy for when the price declines would start in earnest. That ship got turned around. It is still a big ship. The gov. has the tug boats hooked up but they are working in stormy weather. Things are dicey from this perspective…maybe a few lines snap and a tail wind is still pushing on the ships bulk, but the ship is not going to break loose and hit top speed all the sudden. They will hold it until the bigger tug boats or more favorable weather come to aid… or the thing gets washed into the rocks and flips on its side and dies. I guess we can take a poll.

[NotCranky]

Scaredycat, With regards to your idea that a “big shock” will knock this thing out of a phony “equilibrium” once it gets there:

Way back when on this blog people used to use the turning of a large ship analogy for when the price declines would start in earnest. That ship got turned around. It is still a big ship. The gov. has the tug boats hooked up but they are working in stormy weather. Things are dicey from this perspective…maybe a few lines snap and a tail wind is still pushing on the ships bulk, but the ship is not going to break loose and hit top speed all the sudden. They will hold it until the bigger tug boats or more favorable weather come to aid… or the thing gets washed into the rocks and flips on its side and dies. I guess we can take a poll.

[NotCranky]

Scaredycat, With regards to your idea that a “big shock” will knock this thing out of a phony “equilibrium” once it gets there:

Way back when on this blog people used to use the turning of a large ship analogy for when the price declines would start in earnest. That ship got turned around. It is still a big ship. The gov. has the tug boats hooked up but they are working in stormy weather. Things are dicey from this perspective…maybe a few lines snap and a tail wind is still pushing on the ships bulk, but the ship is not going to break loose and hit top speed all the sudden. They will hold it until the bigger tug boats or more favorable weather come to aid… or the thing gets washed into the rocks and flips on its side and dies. I guess we can take a poll.

[patientrenter]

I am glad to see Piggs are beginning to see what’s happening:

1. Government is committed to do “whatever it takes” to allow homeowners to hold onto their massive capital gains accumulated since the early 1980’s.

2. In the short run, the levers that will be pulled all involve generating lots of easy (taxpayer-funded) money for people who buy overpriced homes.

3. In the long run, the easy money levers will generate enough inflation to sustain existing nominal home prices that are unsustainable in real terms. Our govt will make sure this becomes well established before “realizing” that inflation is a menace once again and starts, very slowly and ineffectually for many years, fighting it.

Who gains and who loses? Well, people who bought their first home a long time ago are going to do well. The more expensive a home they bought, and the more borrowed money they used, the better off they will be. People who bought more recently are not going to do well or terribly badly either – they will get no great gains and no great losses, either.

People who buy other real assets without leverage will do neither all that well nor really badly. Inflation will be neutral to them, except that it will increase their tax bill on phantom inflation-driven nominal price gains.

People who buy real assets using borrowed money at fixed interest rates will do OK, as they get to default, in effect, on part of their debt due to inflation.

People who save in banks and other fixed dollar instruments will lose – big. Every period of history in unique in some respects, but I’d encourage all Piggs (many of whom are too young to remember the 1970s’) to become familiar with the financial history of the 1970’s and later. We might be about to re-live some of what happened then.

[patientrenter]

I am glad to see Piggs are beginning to see what’s happening:

1. Government is committed to do “whatever it takes” to allow homeowners to hold onto their massive capital gains accumulated since the early 1980’s.

2. In the short run, the levers that will be pulled all involve generating lots of easy (taxpayer-funded) money for people who buy overpriced homes.

3. In the long run, the easy money levers will generate enough inflation to sustain existing nominal home prices that are unsustainable in real terms. Our govt will make sure this becomes well established before “realizing” that inflation is a menace once again and starts, very slowly and ineffectually for many years, fighting it.

Who gains and who loses? Well, people who bought their first home a long time ago are going to do well. The more expensive a home they bought, and the more borrowed money they used, the better off they will be. People who bought more recently are not going to do well or terribly badly either – they will get no great gains and no great losses, either.

People who buy other real assets without leverage will do neither all that well nor really badly. Inflation will be neutral to them, except that it will increase their tax bill on phantom inflation-driven nominal price gains.

People who buy real assets using borrowed money at fixed interest rates will do OK, as they get to default, in effect, on part of their debt due to inflation.

People who save in banks and other fixed dollar instruments will lose – big. Every period of history in unique in some respects, but I’d encourage all Piggs (many of whom are too young to remember the 1970s’) to become familiar with the financial history of the 1970’s and later. We might be about to re-live some of what happened then.

[patientrenter]

I am glad to see Piggs are beginning to see what’s happening:

1. Government is committed to do “whatever it takes” to allow homeowners to hold onto their massive capital gains accumulated since the early 1980’s.

2. In the short run, the levers that will be pulled all involve generating lots of easy (taxpayer-funded) money for people who buy overpriced homes.

3. In the long run, the easy money levers will generate enough inflation to sustain existing nominal home prices that are unsustainable in real terms. Our govt will make sure this becomes well established before “realizing” that inflation is a menace once again and starts, very slowly and ineffectually for many years, fighting it.

Who gains and who loses? Well, people who bought their first home a long time ago are going to do well. The more expensive a home they bought, and the more borrowed money they used, the better off they will be. People who bought more recently are not going to do well or terribly badly either – they will get no great gains and no great losses, either.

People who buy other real assets without leverage will do neither all that well nor really badly. Inflation will be neutral to them, except that it will increase their tax bill on phantom inflation-driven nominal price gains.

People who buy real assets using borrowed money at fixed interest rates will do OK, as they get to default, in effect, on part of their debt due to inflation.

People who save in banks and other fixed dollar instruments will lose – big. Every period of history in unique in some respects, but I’d encourage all Piggs (many of whom are too young to remember the 1970s’) to become familiar with the financial history of the 1970’s and later. We might be about to re-live some of what happened then.

[patientrenter]

I am glad to see Piggs are beginning to see what’s happening:

1. Government is committed to do “whatever it takes” to allow homeowners to hold onto their massive capital gains accumulated since the early 1980’s.

2. In the short run, the levers that will be pulled all involve generating lots of easy (taxpayer-funded) money for people who buy overpriced homes.

3. In the long run, the easy money levers will generate enough inflation to sustain existing nominal home prices that are unsustainable in real terms. Our govt will make sure this becomes well established before “realizing” that inflation is a menace once again and starts, very slowly and ineffectually for many years, fighting it.

Who gains and who loses? Well, people who bought their first home a long time ago are going to do well. The more expensive a home they bought, and the more borrowed money they used, the better off they will be. People who bought more recently are not going to do well or terribly badly either – they will get no great gains and no great losses, either.

People who buy other real assets without leverage will do neither all that well nor really badly. Inflation will be neutral to them, except that it will increase their tax bill on phantom inflation-driven nominal price gains.

People who buy real assets using borrowed money at fixed interest rates will do OK, as they get to default, in effect, on part of their debt due to inflation.

People who save in banks and other fixed dollar instruments will lose – big. Every period of history in unique in some respects, but I’d encourage all Piggs (many of whom are too young to remember the 1970s’) to become familiar with the financial history of the 1970’s and later. We might be about to re-live some of what happened then.

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