The Short Sale Monitor

[powayseller]

Never mind, my error. Zip inventory for SD County is 16,338 for single family and attached.

[sdrealtor]

It was originally purchased with 20% down and currently has a tenant in it. There looks to be a $250K Heloc but there is no way of knowing what was drawn down. My guess is that its an investment gone bad and the owner wants to write off the loss this year against other investment income.

[SD Realtor]

PS (IMO) yeah that was my point. That crap inventory (as a percentage of the total) should remain fairly consistent. Again though in the hot market the crap inventory will sell, however in our market it doesn’t. Yet it is still crappy…

sdr thanks for the tip!

[sdrealtor]

Update Time!

1043 up from 9997 last week. Total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are 16425 down from 16,947.

The submarket I track very closely still seems to be where it was last year. I was on vacation and missed recording data for this week last year. If history holds true to form we should see a 5% drop in inventory this week and a smaller drop between Xmas and New Years which should mark the inventory low point.

New insight of the week. There are too many holiday parties to go to this time of year but go to the anyway!

Cheers!

SDR

[sdrealtor]

Update Time!

1044 pretty much the same as last week from 1043 last week. Basically a quiet week around the holiday. Total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are 15,775 down from 16,425.

A 4% drop in inventory this week was pretty much in line with what should have been expected. We’ll should drop under 16,000 this week before starting to build into the year. Inventory dropped by more than 1/3rd since the peak in mid-July which hasnt happened in a few years. The last few years have probably been more the exception than the rule.

New insight of the week. Talking to people at holiday parties I saw alot of money on the sidelines and alot of people making big money outside of RE. If prices get down another 20% from here I expect to see alot of competition for quality properties!

Cheers!

SDR

[an]

I agree with you that another 20% and there will be more competition for quality properties. In Sorrento Valley, the area I’m most interested in, price is finally @ 2003 level. Here’s one that as sold earlier this month:
5466 Panoramic Ln, San Diego, CA 92121
12/01/2006: $630,000
08/28/2003: $614,700
03/15/1999: $320,000

There’s another house near there that have the same sq-ft sold for $615k on 12/08/2006.

20% from this point will put this house to about $500k. Still a little high but much more reasonable when compare with rent. Of course, if rates rise, then the 20% will have to be higher. Then there’s one big variable that no one can predict, and that’s psychology. We’ll just have to wait and see.

[sdrealtor]

AN,
That house went into escrow on 6/28/03 last time around so it is back to Summer 2003 pricing which is even very different from Fall 2003 when it closed. The comps look like peak pricing on that house was about $725,000. A price level of approx $500,000 was last seen in Spring 2002.

SDR

[sdrealtor]

Update time

996 down from 1044 last week. Total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are 14,621 down from 15,775. Nothing to get excited about as many listings are entired with an expiration date of 12/31 or 1/1 and the agents probably dont even realize they are off the market so the big fall off really doesn’t mean much. Once everyone wakes up from their slumber many of these will go right back on. The real starting number for 2007 is probably just over 15,000 (closer to last weeks number).

The numbers should be nothing but up from here for the next several months.

[sdrealtor]

Update time

1077 (A NEW HIGH!) up from 996 last week. Total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are 15,039 up from 14,621 . I expected quite a bit more inventory to come on right after New Year’s and am a bit surprised by how little has come on the market. Too early to call it a trend as the real action should start around the 19th but if it continues as such the decline in prices could slow down from last years fairly rapid velocity.

[sdrealtor]

Update time

1122 (about 5% higher) up from 1,077 last week. Total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are 15,200 up from 15,039, which is barely a blip up in the inventory. I am still amazed by how little has come on the market. Still too early to call it a trend as the real action should start around the 19th but if it continues as such the decline in prices could slow down from last years fairly rapid velocity. Maybe the Chargers debacle will get people focused on other things now!

[TheBreeze]

Interesting data. I’ve noticed that my automatic emails from ZipRealty have almost come to a halt. I think the last new listing I got was sometime last week.

How do you interpret this lack of supply? Do you think that many of the sellers over the last year or so were opportunistic sellers as opposed to distressed sellers? Do you think that the 100% financing option ARM buyers were able to refinance into loans they could afford and thus don’t have to sell? Supposedly, a lot of option ARMS were due to reset over the past year or so, but the supply (at least here in San Diego) doesn’t seem to reflect that.

This is anecdotal, but I watched the asking price on one short sale (3-bedroom condo; not a conversion) in UTC decrease from $560,000 to $465,000 in the space of about one month last fall. When I called my real estate agent to ask about it, she said there were two or three parties submitting bids. I didn’t pursue the property any further, but lo-and-behold if the seller didn’t raise the asking price back up to $500,000 just a few days ago. I haven’t talked to my real estate agent about this place lately, but I’m assuming the current asking price is right around where the current highest offer is.

Obviously there is still demand out there at the right price. The question is, will the supply that comes on the market this spring overwhelm that demand? Right now it doesn’t look like it.

[ibjames]

Isn’t it early to really expect to see inventory jumps? Wouldn’t Feb/March be better indicators?

[sdrealtor]

IBJ,
While its too early to say what will happen this Spring Selling SEason re: inventory, in past years it started climbing faster and earlier than it has this year. What comes next is anyone’s guess.

Thebreeze,
My interpretation is that the opportunistic sellers have left the building and are resigned to staying put as you surmised. I also think the desparate sellers are just starting to hit the market. I have seen sevaral houses go into escrow this year after relisting at the same price they didnt sell in the Fall. I have heard of some sellers of homes they have owned for many years reducing their homes to prices they said they never would go to. Demand is definitely starting to pick up a little but how much and at what price is still undetermined. One interesting thing I am hearing quite a bit of whispers about is mortgage fraud. It may be that mortgage fraud causes as many or more foreclosures than overencumbered homeowners.

[PerryChase]

sdrealtor, isn’t your market fairly upscale North County Coastal? If upper middle class, seamingly upstanding San Diegans were committing fraud, then this market has a long way to fall.

[sdrealtor]

PC,
You are correct about my market but the fraud I’m hearing alot about isnt in my area. Its in the less expensive areas.

Quick question, you frequently mention your distate for the suburban community you currently live in. W/O giving too much information, I’m curious as to what ZIP you live in?

[Author]

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