The Short Sale Monitor

[lindismith]

PC, can you search for those terms on Zip?

[sdrealtor]

There are lots of other terms that could be added but we would pick up lots of duplicates. The foreclosure properties are easy to find many other places. Short sales cant be found in any one place because they are pre pre-foreclosure properties in many cases. I chose this number to give us something to watch consistently. Watching the count is not so relevant as watching the velocity of change.

[powayseller]

lindi, it sounds like the foreclosures now are due to the natural rate of foreclosures that occur anyway. We still haven’t hit the ARM reset foreclosures in a meaningful way? I think by the end of next year, your BIL will see the ARM resets increasing his business.

Most foreclosures result from job loss, divorce, illness, or addiction, and there is a nornal rate of foreclosure in any market. Due to the boom, the foreclosure rate was unusually low, as anyone with a problem could easily sell. Now we are getting back to more normal levels.

The next step, and where I expect to see a big jump, is when ARMs reset at the same time that prices are dropping.

[lindismith]

Can we get an update on this?

[sdrealtor]

Very Busy day. How about tommorrow…

[sdrealtor]

206 and counting. Thats another 14% increase in a week. BTW, total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are down to 18,481 (down from 18,853 last week) which is a drop of about 21.5% from peak inventory (approx 23,500). I think we’ll get down to 15,000 or less in the next 30 days.

[an]

Great news, desperate sellers are on the rise and unmotivated seller are leaving the market until the spring. I wonder what the number will be this time next year.

[sdcellar]

I’m confused, BubbleTracking has inventory at 20,380. His charts support the same rough peak number. What do you suppose causes the discrepency?

Also, is it normal for inventory to drop 18% in December? If not, then why do you think it’s going to drop that much this year?

[North County Jim]

sdr,

Is is possible to break down the inventory reduction? I think it would be illuminating to see how much of the reduced inventory is pending as opposed to withdrawn, cancelled or expired.

[sdrealtor]

The discrepancy is probably how they are searching. The MLS has alot of listings outside of SD County. When I searched I searched only those in SD County which is a little tricky to do. Bubble tracking probably has alot of inventory outside of SD County.

NCJim,
I’ll have to think about that one for alittle to see how I can figure that one out.

[sdrealtor]

NCJim,
Since 7/15 here is what has happened.

25,450 properties listed (many are re-lists)

10,380 properties went pending (about 60% of these have already closed)

9,207 expired (these either relist or give-up for now)

6,706 cancelled (these either re-list often w/ another agent or give up)

2,838 withdrawn (these have given up for now or have a personal reason to come off the market for a while)

Have at it!

[North County Jim]

Thanks very much sdr.

[sdrealtor]

211 and counting. The bleeding slowed down this week. Total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are down to 18,070.

In the submarket I track very closely inventory is falling and pending are rising. The inventory and pending numbers are very similar this year vs exactly 1 year ago. The market is pretty much where it was one year ago so there really hasnt been a major meltdown yet. The ratio of actives to pendings has gone from a high of 6 around Labor Day to 3.5 which is where it stood last Nov 28th. The price decline has happened in a pretty orderly fashion in my area with the fluff that was piled on in early 2004 rapidly evaporating. I expect the pace of declines to slow from here on out but don’t pretend to have all the answers. That and $4 will get you a Cafe Mocha @ Starbucks.

[rockclimber]

I took the liberty of starting a chart of sdr’s data contained in this thread.

[img_assist|nid=2133|title=sdr’s data 11-27|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=313]

[powayseller]

December closing are always higher than November closings. Chart will be on my website. I don’t know why…. Any thoughts sdr?

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