The Short Sale Monitor

[sdrealtor]

As SD R has pointed out, many of the short sale active listings have offers on them already so the actual inventory numbers are probably even lower.

The curious thing to see would be how the trend stacks up against previous years. Last year we might have seen a bounce of folks running for the exits. This year, you only go on the market if you are a serious seller.

[sdrealtor]

As SD R has pointed out, many of the short sale active listings have offers on them already so the actual inventory numbers are probably even lower.

The curious thing to see would be how the trend stacks up against previous years. Last year we might have seen a bounce of folks running for the exits. This year, you only go on the market if you are a serious seller.

[sdrealtor]

As SD R has pointed out, many of the short sale active listings have offers on them already so the actual inventory numbers are probably even lower.

The curious thing to see would be how the trend stacks up against previous years. Last year we might have seen a bounce of folks running for the exits. This year, you only go on the market if you are a serious seller.

[sdrealtor]

As SD R has pointed out, many of the short sale active listings have offers on them already so the actual inventory numbers are probably even lower.

The curious thing to see would be how the trend stacks up against previous years. Last year we might have seen a bounce of folks running for the exits. This year, you only go on the market if you are a serious seller.

[Artifact]

Figures – The first four are the usual plots – very interesting to see that the trend in Short Sales has become decoupled from the trend in total listings.

The last figure is the Active to Pending Ratio plot – This is interesting in that the ratio for Short Sales is slightly higher than for total listings. As has been discussed, these data most likely overstate the true number of short sales, and understate the total listings – the argument all along is that this is only an exercise in watching the trends, not providing exact numbers – Bottom line is that we expect to see this pattern at some level.

The number of pendings is a true number, I assume, so an overestimate of the number of short sale listings would generate a higher than “real” ratio – likewise the total listings is an underestimate, so the ratio is lower than “real” (but probably closer than for short sales?) – so maybe what is interesting here is that these two ratios are so close in value.

In any case, 3 weeks worth of data are hard to say much of anything about – maybe in another month we can really start to say something about it.

[img_assist|nid=7527|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7528|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7529|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7530|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7531|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=286]

[Artifact]

Figures – The first four are the usual plots – very interesting to see that the trend in Short Sales has become decoupled from the trend in total listings.

The last figure is the Active to Pending Ratio plot – This is interesting in that the ratio for Short Sales is slightly higher than for total listings. As has been discussed, these data most likely overstate the true number of short sales, and understate the total listings – the argument all along is that this is only an exercise in watching the trends, not providing exact numbers – Bottom line is that we expect to see this pattern at some level.

The number of pendings is a true number, I assume, so an overestimate of the number of short sale listings would generate a higher than “real” ratio – likewise the total listings is an underestimate, so the ratio is lower than “real” (but probably closer than for short sales?) – so maybe what is interesting here is that these two ratios are so close in value.

In any case, 3 weeks worth of data are hard to say much of anything about – maybe in another month we can really start to say something about it.

[img_assist|nid=7527|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7528|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7529|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7530|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7531|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=286]

[Artifact]

Figures – The first four are the usual plots – very interesting to see that the trend in Short Sales has become decoupled from the trend in total listings.

The last figure is the Active to Pending Ratio plot – This is interesting in that the ratio for Short Sales is slightly higher than for total listings. As has been discussed, these data most likely overstate the true number of short sales, and understate the total listings – the argument all along is that this is only an exercise in watching the trends, not providing exact numbers – Bottom line is that we expect to see this pattern at some level.

The number of pendings is a true number, I assume, so an overestimate of the number of short sale listings would generate a higher than “real” ratio – likewise the total listings is an underestimate, so the ratio is lower than “real” (but probably closer than for short sales?) – so maybe what is interesting here is that these two ratios are so close in value.

In any case, 3 weeks worth of data are hard to say much of anything about – maybe in another month we can really start to say something about it.

[img_assist|nid=7527|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7528|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7529|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7530|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7531|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=286]

[Artifact]

Figures – The first four are the usual plots – very interesting to see that the trend in Short Sales has become decoupled from the trend in total listings.

The last figure is the Active to Pending Ratio plot – This is interesting in that the ratio for Short Sales is slightly higher than for total listings. As has been discussed, these data most likely overstate the true number of short sales, and understate the total listings – the argument all along is that this is only an exercise in watching the trends, not providing exact numbers – Bottom line is that we expect to see this pattern at some level.

The number of pendings is a true number, I assume, so an overestimate of the number of short sale listings would generate a higher than “real” ratio – likewise the total listings is an underestimate, so the ratio is lower than “real” (but probably closer than for short sales?) – so maybe what is interesting here is that these two ratios are so close in value.

In any case, 3 weeks worth of data are hard to say much of anything about – maybe in another month we can really start to say something about it.

[img_assist|nid=7527|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7528|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7529|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7530|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7531|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=286]

[Artifact]

Figures – The first four are the usual plots – very interesting to see that the trend in Short Sales has become decoupled from the trend in total listings.

The last figure is the Active to Pending Ratio plot – This is interesting in that the ratio for Short Sales is slightly higher than for total listings. As has been discussed, these data most likely overstate the true number of short sales, and understate the total listings – the argument all along is that this is only an exercise in watching the trends, not providing exact numbers – Bottom line is that we expect to see this pattern at some level.

The number of pendings is a true number, I assume, so an overestimate of the number of short sale listings would generate a higher than “real” ratio – likewise the total listings is an underestimate, so the ratio is lower than “real” (but probably closer than for short sales?) – so maybe what is interesting here is that these two ratios are so close in value.

In any case, 3 weeks worth of data are hard to say much of anything about – maybe in another month we can really start to say something about it.

[img_assist|nid=7527|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7528|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7529|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7530|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=227]
[img_assist|nid=7531|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=286]

[LA_Renter]

OC Renter had a good post on the flat to declining inventory at bubbletracking.

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/05/flat-or-declining-inventory-what-gives.html

“Despite having 9 NOD filings within a week in the 92127 zipcode, only two of these homes are on the MLS. This fits with what we are seeing with our foreclosure/pre-foreclosure tracking data as well as our inventory tracking data. In short, the distress is increasing, but the distressed owners are not listing.

Market psychology is a very important factor. Here we have 7 out of 9 distressed homeowners simply giving up and just letting the clock run its course, what does that say about the seller psychology? More impressively, of the 5 homes owned by REALTORS®, only 2 out of 5 are bothering with a listing. If even the cheerleaders are tossing away their pom poms, oh boy…”

[LA_Renter]

OC Renter had a good post on the flat to declining inventory at bubbletracking.

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/05/flat-or-declining-inventory-what-gives.html

“Despite having 9 NOD filings within a week in the 92127 zipcode, only two of these homes are on the MLS. This fits with what we are seeing with our foreclosure/pre-foreclosure tracking data as well as our inventory tracking data. In short, the distress is increasing, but the distressed owners are not listing.

Market psychology is a very important factor. Here we have 7 out of 9 distressed homeowners simply giving up and just letting the clock run its course, what does that say about the seller psychology? More impressively, of the 5 homes owned by REALTORS®, only 2 out of 5 are bothering with a listing. If even the cheerleaders are tossing away their pom poms, oh boy…”

[LA_Renter]

OC Renter had a good post on the flat to declining inventory at bubbletracking.

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/05/flat-or-declining-inventory-what-gives.html

“Despite having 9 NOD filings within a week in the 92127 zipcode, only two of these homes are on the MLS. This fits with what we are seeing with our foreclosure/pre-foreclosure tracking data as well as our inventory tracking data. In short, the distress is increasing, but the distressed owners are not listing.

Market psychology is a very important factor. Here we have 7 out of 9 distressed homeowners simply giving up and just letting the clock run its course, what does that say about the seller psychology? More impressively, of the 5 homes owned by REALTORS®, only 2 out of 5 are bothering with a listing. If even the cheerleaders are tossing away their pom poms, oh boy…”

[LA_Renter]

OC Renter had a good post on the flat to declining inventory at bubbletracking.

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/05/flat-or-declining-inventory-what-gives.html

“Despite having 9 NOD filings within a week in the 92127 zipcode, only two of these homes are on the MLS. This fits with what we are seeing with our foreclosure/pre-foreclosure tracking data as well as our inventory tracking data. In short, the distress is increasing, but the distressed owners are not listing.

Market psychology is a very important factor. Here we have 7 out of 9 distressed homeowners simply giving up and just letting the clock run its course, what does that say about the seller psychology? More impressively, of the 5 homes owned by REALTORS®, only 2 out of 5 are bothering with a listing. If even the cheerleaders are tossing away their pom poms, oh boy…”

[LA_Renter]

OC Renter had a good post on the flat to declining inventory at bubbletracking.

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2008/05/flat-or-declining-inventory-what-gives.html

“Despite having 9 NOD filings within a week in the 92127 zipcode, only two of these homes are on the MLS. This fits with what we are seeing with our foreclosure/pre-foreclosure tracking data as well as our inventory tracking data. In short, the distress is increasing, but the distressed owners are not listing.

Market psychology is a very important factor. Here we have 7 out of 9 distressed homeowners simply giving up and just letting the clock run its course, what does that say about the seller psychology? More impressively, of the 5 homes owned by REALTORS®, only 2 out of 5 are bothering with a listing. If even the cheerleaders are tossing away their pom poms, oh boy…”

[sdrealtor]

Busy day, so here’s an early update.

Short sales 7,834 up from 7,766 last week.

Short sale pending count 2,130 up from 2,067 last week.

Countywide we are at 17,585 pretty flat from 17,574 last week.

Countywide pendings start at 5,330 up from 5,241 last week.

see ya next week

[Author]

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