The Market this Fall

[pencilneck]

Case Shiller index of 20 cities:
http://img33.imageshack.us/f/picture3vd.png/

Sdrealtor, you’re absolutely right that San Diego is historically a leader rather than a follower in the pricing trend. History also bears out most metropolitan areas move more or less together over time. We will have to see which historical precedent wins in this case. I think the strength of the national downturn will trump this time.

Also the median sales price and the case shiller index (to a slightly lesser extent) are sometimes exaggerated by market conditions. The peak of 2005, for example, was overstated upward due to a lack of sales at the lower end. Similarly, the low of 2009 was overstated downward due to both a lack of sales at the higher end and the high volume of sales of inexpensive garbage on the lower end.

A normalized market (historically normal amount of sales among all tiers of housing) “only” returning to the 2009 lows would still be a significantly lower market overall.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Yes I was referring to my submarket and more specifically it is for single family detached homes in the portion of the NCC that lies within the San Dieguito school district. And yes it has been surprising resilient whatever the causes and support mechanisms have been is irrlevant because they have been there for other markets that have not shown such resiliency. Cetirus paribus ya know[/quote]

If you look at the **timeline** as opposed to submarkets, you’ll see that very few areas have declined significantly since the Fed/govt started their major market-intervention campaign in late 2008/early 2009.

Of course the “higher end” markets were going to decline after the areas with no buffer at all (100%+ LTVs and DTI ratios of 55% or more, even with teaser payments). The point that many of us are making is that the better areas were about to implode — you could see it starting to creep into the better areas in late 2008 — and then the massiven intervention began to keep housing prices artificially inflated.

I don’t think this area (NCC coastal) is nearly as bullet-proof as some would think. These people are simply luckier than their counterparts in O’side, Vista, etc. because the govt intervened *after* the lower end areas were hit, and *before* the mid-higher end areas were really damaged.

How long this can be sustained is what none of us can truly know.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Yes I was referring to my submarket and more specifically it is for single family detached homes in the portion of the NCC that lies within the San Dieguito school district. And yes it has been surprising resilient whatever the causes and support mechanisms have been is irrlevant because they have been there for other markets that have not shown such resiliency. Cetirus paribus ya know[/quote]

If you look at the **timeline** as opposed to submarkets, you’ll see that very few areas have declined significantly since the Fed/govt started their major market-intervention campaign in late 2008/early 2009.

Of course the “higher end” markets were going to decline after the areas with no buffer at all (100%+ LTVs and DTI ratios of 55% or more, even with teaser payments). The point that many of us are making is that the better areas were about to implode — you could see it starting to creep into the better areas in late 2008 — and then the massiven intervention began to keep housing prices artificially inflated.

I don’t think this area (NCC coastal) is nearly as bullet-proof as some would think. These people are simply luckier than their counterparts in O’side, Vista, etc. because the govt intervened *after* the lower end areas were hit, and *before* the mid-higher end areas were really damaged.

How long this can be sustained is what none of us can truly know.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Yes I was referring to my submarket and more specifically it is for single family detached homes in the portion of the NCC that lies within the San Dieguito school district. And yes it has been surprising resilient whatever the causes and support mechanisms have been is irrlevant because they have been there for other markets that have not shown such resiliency. Cetirus paribus ya know[/quote]

If you look at the **timeline** as opposed to submarkets, you’ll see that very few areas have declined significantly since the Fed/govt started their major market-intervention campaign in late 2008/early 2009.

Of course the “higher end” markets were going to decline after the areas with no buffer at all (100%+ LTVs and DTI ratios of 55% or more, even with teaser payments). The point that many of us are making is that the better areas were about to implode — you could see it starting to creep into the better areas in late 2008 — and then the massiven intervention began to keep housing prices artificially inflated.

I don’t think this area (NCC coastal) is nearly as bullet-proof as some would think. These people are simply luckier than their counterparts in O’side, Vista, etc. because the govt intervened *after* the lower end areas were hit, and *before* the mid-higher end areas were really damaged.

How long this can be sustained is what none of us can truly know.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Yes I was referring to my submarket and more specifically it is for single family detached homes in the portion of the NCC that lies within the San Dieguito school district. And yes it has been surprising resilient whatever the causes and support mechanisms have been is irrlevant because they have been there for other markets that have not shown such resiliency. Cetirus paribus ya know[/quote]

If you look at the **timeline** as opposed to submarkets, you’ll see that very few areas have declined significantly since the Fed/govt started their major market-intervention campaign in late 2008/early 2009.

Of course the “higher end” markets were going to decline after the areas with no buffer at all (100%+ LTVs and DTI ratios of 55% or more, even with teaser payments). The point that many of us are making is that the better areas were about to implode — you could see it starting to creep into the better areas in late 2008 — and then the massiven intervention began to keep housing prices artificially inflated.

I don’t think this area (NCC coastal) is nearly as bullet-proof as some would think. These people are simply luckier than their counterparts in O’side, Vista, etc. because the govt intervened *after* the lower end areas were hit, and *before* the mid-higher end areas were really damaged.

How long this can be sustained is what none of us can truly know.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Yes I was referring to my submarket and more specifically it is for single family detached homes in the portion of the NCC that lies within the San Dieguito school district. And yes it has been surprising resilient whatever the causes and support mechanisms have been is irrlevant because they have been there for other markets that have not shown such resiliency. Cetirus paribus ya know[/quote]

If you look at the **timeline** as opposed to submarkets, you’ll see that very few areas have declined significantly since the Fed/govt started their major market-intervention campaign in late 2008/early 2009.

Of course the “higher end” markets were going to decline after the areas with no buffer at all (100%+ LTVs and DTI ratios of 55% or more, even with teaser payments). The point that many of us are making is that the better areas were about to implode — you could see it starting to creep into the better areas in late 2008 — and then the massiven intervention began to keep housing prices artificially inflated.

I don’t think this area (NCC coastal) is nearly as bullet-proof as some would think. These people are simply luckier than their counterparts in O’side, Vista, etc. because the govt intervened *after* the lower end areas were hit, and *before* the mid-higher end areas were really damaged.

How long this can be sustained is what none of us can truly know.

[pemeliza]

“If you look at the **timeline** as opposed to submarkets, you’ll see that very few areas have declined significantly since the Fed/govt started their major market-intervention campaign in late 2008/early 2009.”

“because the govt intervened *after* the lower end areas were hit, and *before* the mid-higher end areas were really damaged.”

Interesting theory CAR but I don’t think it really played out quite like that. Many good areas in San Diego had massive price declines at the mid-higher end all throughout 2009 and now into 2010. As an example, Aviara is currently trading at about 2001 prices for houses in the mid-high range but early last year I looked in that area and prices were significantly higher. Other areas that got hammered over the last 12 months that I personally follow fairly closely are Point Loma, Mission Hills, Mt. Helix, and Poway. I cannot believe some of the deals I am seeing go through in Mt Helix.

Some areas in NCC that come to mind that got decimated over the last 12 months are La Costa Greens, La Costa Oaks, La Costa Estates, Rancho Carillo, and Encinitas Ranch. Most of them are new tract homes but I saw some of the more established stuff on the hill in La Costa Estates trading for around 2001 prices as well.

[pemeliza]

“If you look at the **timeline** as opposed to submarkets, you’ll see that very few areas have declined significantly since the Fed/govt started their major market-intervention campaign in late 2008/early 2009.”

“because the govt intervened *after* the lower end areas were hit, and *before* the mid-higher end areas were really damaged.”

Interesting theory CAR but I don’t think it really played out quite like that. Many good areas in San Diego had massive price declines at the mid-higher end all throughout 2009 and now into 2010. As an example, Aviara is currently trading at about 2001 prices for houses in the mid-high range but early last year I looked in that area and prices were significantly higher. Other areas that got hammered over the last 12 months that I personally follow fairly closely are Point Loma, Mission Hills, Mt. Helix, and Poway. I cannot believe some of the deals I am seeing go through in Mt Helix.

Some areas in NCC that come to mind that got decimated over the last 12 months are La Costa Greens, La Costa Oaks, La Costa Estates, Rancho Carillo, and Encinitas Ranch. Most of them are new tract homes but I saw some of the more established stuff on the hill in La Costa Estates trading for around 2001 prices as well.

[pemeliza]

“If you look at the **timeline** as opposed to submarkets, you’ll see that very few areas have declined significantly since the Fed/govt started their major market-intervention campaign in late 2008/early 2009.”

“because the govt intervened *after* the lower end areas were hit, and *before* the mid-higher end areas were really damaged.”

Interesting theory CAR but I don’t think it really played out quite like that. Many good areas in San Diego had massive price declines at the mid-higher end all throughout 2009 and now into 2010. As an example, Aviara is currently trading at about 2001 prices for houses in the mid-high range but early last year I looked in that area and prices were significantly higher. Other areas that got hammered over the last 12 months that I personally follow fairly closely are Point Loma, Mission Hills, Mt. Helix, and Poway. I cannot believe some of the deals I am seeing go through in Mt Helix.

Some areas in NCC that come to mind that got decimated over the last 12 months are La Costa Greens, La Costa Oaks, La Costa Estates, Rancho Carillo, and Encinitas Ranch. Most of them are new tract homes but I saw some of the more established stuff on the hill in La Costa Estates trading for around 2001 prices as well.

[pemeliza]

“If you look at the **timeline** as opposed to submarkets, you’ll see that very few areas have declined significantly since the Fed/govt started their major market-intervention campaign in late 2008/early 2009.”

“because the govt intervened *after* the lower end areas were hit, and *before* the mid-higher end areas were really damaged.”

Interesting theory CAR but I don’t think it really played out quite like that. Many good areas in San Diego had massive price declines at the mid-higher end all throughout 2009 and now into 2010. As an example, Aviara is currently trading at about 2001 prices for houses in the mid-high range but early last year I looked in that area and prices were significantly higher. Other areas that got hammered over the last 12 months that I personally follow fairly closely are Point Loma, Mission Hills, Mt. Helix, and Poway. I cannot believe some of the deals I am seeing go through in Mt Helix.

Some areas in NCC that come to mind that got decimated over the last 12 months are La Costa Greens, La Costa Oaks, La Costa Estates, Rancho Carillo, and Encinitas Ranch. Most of them are new tract homes but I saw some of the more established stuff on the hill in La Costa Estates trading for around 2001 prices as well.

[pemeliza]

“If you look at the **timeline** as opposed to submarkets, you’ll see that very few areas have declined significantly since the Fed/govt started their major market-intervention campaign in late 2008/early 2009.”

“because the govt intervened *after* the lower end areas were hit, and *before* the mid-higher end areas were really damaged.”

Interesting theory CAR but I don’t think it really played out quite like that. Many good areas in San Diego had massive price declines at the mid-higher end all throughout 2009 and now into 2010. As an example, Aviara is currently trading at about 2001 prices for houses in the mid-high range but early last year I looked in that area and prices were significantly higher. Other areas that got hammered over the last 12 months that I personally follow fairly closely are Point Loma, Mission Hills, Mt. Helix, and Poway. I cannot believe some of the deals I am seeing go through in Mt Helix.

Some areas in NCC that come to mind that got decimated over the last 12 months are La Costa Greens, La Costa Oaks, La Costa Estates, Rancho Carillo, and Encinitas Ranch. Most of them are new tract homes but I saw some of the more established stuff on the hill in La Costa Estates trading for around 2001 prices as well.

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