The Market this Fall

[t36tran]

I began to think about buying a place back in 2004, and started to slowly save up a down payment. It’s been frustrating at times to see how crappy the homes in my price range (300-400) are for central SD. My timeline has been pushed back several times, waiting for what I believe to be more reasonable prices. If we start to see the market turn this fall, with hopefully more distress sales coming online, should I buy or should I keep waiting hoping for more distress and lower prices? Since it has taken me so long to save up a downpayment, I hate the idea of losing some of it, even if it’s just on paper. But I also wonder if all these years of waiting have made me a perma-bear. So what’s the downside of waiting? Could I actually miss the boat?I must admit, after 10 years of renting, it’s starting to get a little old.

[1stimebuy]

I’m in the same boat as you are – and my assessment is that prices won’t go that lower, or the extra inventory (and the downward pressure) won’t come fast enough. I see a LOT less entries in foreclosureradar.com. REO’s are not coming out – it’s trickling. I don’t expect Fed to raise interest rates in any meaningful way in near future. Most of the new houses still come with 10-15% more than it would have been 6 month ago. There are still buyers out there writing offers.

The good thing is, that these days after the tax credit expiration, I’m now getting counter offers 🙂 But one of the counteroffer I received yesterday is so outrageous that I lost all interest in the house.

Let’s be patient – no point in jumping in when you’ve already missed the boat. Take your time, keep your horizon out like year or two. Something will show up – or maybe a job outside CA 🙂

[1stimebuy]

I’m in the same boat as you are – and my assessment is that prices won’t go that lower, or the extra inventory (and the downward pressure) won’t come fast enough. I see a LOT less entries in foreclosureradar.com. REO’s are not coming out – it’s trickling. I don’t expect Fed to raise interest rates in any meaningful way in near future. Most of the new houses still come with 10-15% more than it would have been 6 month ago. There are still buyers out there writing offers.

The good thing is, that these days after the tax credit expiration, I’m now getting counter offers 🙂 But one of the counteroffer I received yesterday is so outrageous that I lost all interest in the house.

Let’s be patient – no point in jumping in when you’ve already missed the boat. Take your time, keep your horizon out like year or two. Something will show up – or maybe a job outside CA 🙂

[1stimebuy]

I’m in the same boat as you are – and my assessment is that prices won’t go that lower, or the extra inventory (and the downward pressure) won’t come fast enough. I see a LOT less entries in foreclosureradar.com. REO’s are not coming out – it’s trickling. I don’t expect Fed to raise interest rates in any meaningful way in near future. Most of the new houses still come with 10-15% more than it would have been 6 month ago. There are still buyers out there writing offers.

The good thing is, that these days after the tax credit expiration, I’m now getting counter offers 🙂 But one of the counteroffer I received yesterday is so outrageous that I lost all interest in the house.

Let’s be patient – no point in jumping in when you’ve already missed the boat. Take your time, keep your horizon out like year or two. Something will show up – or maybe a job outside CA 🙂

[1stimebuy]

I’m in the same boat as you are – and my assessment is that prices won’t go that lower, or the extra inventory (and the downward pressure) won’t come fast enough. I see a LOT less entries in foreclosureradar.com. REO’s are not coming out – it’s trickling. I don’t expect Fed to raise interest rates in any meaningful way in near future. Most of the new houses still come with 10-15% more than it would have been 6 month ago. There are still buyers out there writing offers.

The good thing is, that these days after the tax credit expiration, I’m now getting counter offers 🙂 But one of the counteroffer I received yesterday is so outrageous that I lost all interest in the house.

Let’s be patient – no point in jumping in when you’ve already missed the boat. Take your time, keep your horizon out like year or two. Something will show up – or maybe a job outside CA 🙂

[1stimebuy]

I’m in the same boat as you are – and my assessment is that prices won’t go that lower, or the extra inventory (and the downward pressure) won’t come fast enough. I see a LOT less entries in foreclosureradar.com. REO’s are not coming out – it’s trickling. I don’t expect Fed to raise interest rates in any meaningful way in near future. Most of the new houses still come with 10-15% more than it would have been 6 month ago. There are still buyers out there writing offers.

The good thing is, that these days after the tax credit expiration, I’m now getting counter offers 🙂 But one of the counteroffer I received yesterday is so outrageous that I lost all interest in the house.

Let’s be patient – no point in jumping in when you’ve already missed the boat. Take your time, keep your horizon out like year or two. Something will show up – or maybe a job outside CA 🙂

[livinincali]

It’s going to be slightly tough to know if and when a longer term bottom is in, but we know there was a flurry of activity late in the year last year. If YoY prices and sales are in line with Sept-Nov 2009 you might be able to be somewhat confident the market is standing on it’s own two feet. Last year you had a flurry of tax credit and pent up demand buying, so this year will likely see less sales but if prices hold up and the sales don’t drop too much then it might be worth taking a plunge.

Personally I just don’t see the huge V for housing prices in the next 4-5 years. I don’t see the buy now or your going to be left behind on 20% a year gain in 2011, 2012, etc. I would buy for the right reason, a place to live, not trying to time the exact bottom right before 10% a year appreciation. It’s unlikely housing is ever going to the investment vehicle it was in early 2000. It’s just doubtful you’ll see the leverage that was required to produce those annual returns ever again. Housing will go up with wages.

[livinincali]

It’s going to be slightly tough to know if and when a longer term bottom is in, but we know there was a flurry of activity late in the year last year. If YoY prices and sales are in line with Sept-Nov 2009 you might be able to be somewhat confident the market is standing on it’s own two feet. Last year you had a flurry of tax credit and pent up demand buying, so this year will likely see less sales but if prices hold up and the sales don’t drop too much then it might be worth taking a plunge.

Personally I just don’t see the huge V for housing prices in the next 4-5 years. I don’t see the buy now or your going to be left behind on 20% a year gain in 2011, 2012, etc. I would buy for the right reason, a place to live, not trying to time the exact bottom right before 10% a year appreciation. It’s unlikely housing is ever going to the investment vehicle it was in early 2000. It’s just doubtful you’ll see the leverage that was required to produce those annual returns ever again. Housing will go up with wages.

[livinincali]

It’s going to be slightly tough to know if and when a longer term bottom is in, but we know there was a flurry of activity late in the year last year. If YoY prices and sales are in line with Sept-Nov 2009 you might be able to be somewhat confident the market is standing on it’s own two feet. Last year you had a flurry of tax credit and pent up demand buying, so this year will likely see less sales but if prices hold up and the sales don’t drop too much then it might be worth taking a plunge.

Personally I just don’t see the huge V for housing prices in the next 4-5 years. I don’t see the buy now or your going to be left behind on 20% a year gain in 2011, 2012, etc. I would buy for the right reason, a place to live, not trying to time the exact bottom right before 10% a year appreciation. It’s unlikely housing is ever going to the investment vehicle it was in early 2000. It’s just doubtful you’ll see the leverage that was required to produce those annual returns ever again. Housing will go up with wages.

[livinincali]

It’s going to be slightly tough to know if and when a longer term bottom is in, but we know there was a flurry of activity late in the year last year. If YoY prices and sales are in line with Sept-Nov 2009 you might be able to be somewhat confident the market is standing on it’s own two feet. Last year you had a flurry of tax credit and pent up demand buying, so this year will likely see less sales but if prices hold up and the sales don’t drop too much then it might be worth taking a plunge.

Personally I just don’t see the huge V for housing prices in the next 4-5 years. I don’t see the buy now or your going to be left behind on 20% a year gain in 2011, 2012, etc. I would buy for the right reason, a place to live, not trying to time the exact bottom right before 10% a year appreciation. It’s unlikely housing is ever going to the investment vehicle it was in early 2000. It’s just doubtful you’ll see the leverage that was required to produce those annual returns ever again. Housing will go up with wages.

[livinincali]

It’s going to be slightly tough to know if and when a longer term bottom is in, but we know there was a flurry of activity late in the year last year. If YoY prices and sales are in line with Sept-Nov 2009 you might be able to be somewhat confident the market is standing on it’s own two feet. Last year you had a flurry of tax credit and pent up demand buying, so this year will likely see less sales but if prices hold up and the sales don’t drop too much then it might be worth taking a plunge.

Personally I just don’t see the huge V for housing prices in the next 4-5 years. I don’t see the buy now or your going to be left behind on 20% a year gain in 2011, 2012, etc. I would buy for the right reason, a place to live, not trying to time the exact bottom right before 10% a year appreciation. It’s unlikely housing is ever going to the investment vehicle it was in early 2000. It’s just doubtful you’ll see the leverage that was required to produce those annual returns ever again. Housing will go up with wages.

[pencilneck]

“But I also wonder if all these years of waiting have made me a perma-bear.”

I’ve been doing similar soul searching. I still see more downside risk than upside potential over the next few years.

“Could I actually miss the boat?”

What is missing the boat? Could you miss the exact bottom of the market? Yes. Are prices going to suddenly jump into the stratosphere again? I kind of doubt it.

This rally may be a bottom forming. However, we haven’t really seen yet what the market looks like without the $8k federal tax credit, and a lot of current numbers reflect sales that are taking advantage of the $10k state tax incentive as well. I think there is little risk in waiting to see where the market it headed next.

[pencilneck]

“But I also wonder if all these years of waiting have made me a perma-bear.”

I’ve been doing similar soul searching. I still see more downside risk than upside potential over the next few years.

“Could I actually miss the boat?”

What is missing the boat? Could you miss the exact bottom of the market? Yes. Are prices going to suddenly jump into the stratosphere again? I kind of doubt it.

This rally may be a bottom forming. However, we haven’t really seen yet what the market looks like without the $8k federal tax credit, and a lot of current numbers reflect sales that are taking advantage of the $10k state tax incentive as well. I think there is little risk in waiting to see where the market it headed next.

[pencilneck]

“But I also wonder if all these years of waiting have made me a perma-bear.”

I’ve been doing similar soul searching. I still see more downside risk than upside potential over the next few years.

“Could I actually miss the boat?”

What is missing the boat? Could you miss the exact bottom of the market? Yes. Are prices going to suddenly jump into the stratosphere again? I kind of doubt it.

This rally may be a bottom forming. However, we haven’t really seen yet what the market looks like without the $8k federal tax credit, and a lot of current numbers reflect sales that are taking advantage of the $10k state tax incentive as well. I think there is little risk in waiting to see where the market it headed next.

[pencilneck]

“But I also wonder if all these years of waiting have made me a perma-bear.”

I’ve been doing similar soul searching. I still see more downside risk than upside potential over the next few years.

“Could I actually miss the boat?”

What is missing the boat? Could you miss the exact bottom of the market? Yes. Are prices going to suddenly jump into the stratosphere again? I kind of doubt it.

This rally may be a bottom forming. However, we haven’t really seen yet what the market looks like without the $8k federal tax credit, and a lot of current numbers reflect sales that are taking advantage of the $10k state tax incentive as well. I think there is little risk in waiting to see where the market it headed next.

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