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June 19, 2010 at 11:52 AM #568206June 19, 2010 at 1:04 PM #567239
sdrealtor
Participant[quote=pencilneck]Submarkets aside, its pretty clear that nationally housing is currently softening. The plunge in mortgage applications is one telling indicator. Another is the shift from appreciation to depreciation in the case shiller index (in 18 of 20 markets I believe).
I believe San Diego, as a whole, will soon follow suit. The pause in the housing decline appears to be over. I think this will be visible in the San Diego markets by this Fall, but I’m not absolutely sure about this. I’m more confident in the general trend than exact timing.
Best of luck to all.[/quote]
FWIW, SD has historically been a leader in increases/declines relative to other markets rather than following suit. History would not bear out to SD following suit. With that said, we declined alot and then recovered a little. It wouldnt surprise me and I fully expect that we will go back to where we were a year ago in many but not all parts of SD.
June 19, 2010 at 1:04 PM #567335Participant[quote=pencilneck]Submarkets aside, its pretty clear that nationally housing is currently softening. The plunge in mortgage applications is one telling indicator. Another is the shift from appreciation to depreciation in the case shiller index (in 18 of 20 markets I believe).
I believe San Diego, as a whole, will soon follow suit. The pause in the housing decline appears to be over. I think this will be visible in the San Diego markets by this Fall, but I’m not absolutely sure about this. I’m more confident in the general trend than exact timing.
Best of luck to all.[/quote]
FWIW, SD has historically been a leader in increases/declines relative to other markets rather than following suit. History would not bear out to SD following suit. With that said, we declined alot and then recovered a little. It wouldnt surprise me and I fully expect that we will go back to where we were a year ago in many but not all parts of SD.
June 19, 2010 at 1:04 PM #567836Participant[quote=pencilneck]Submarkets aside, its pretty clear that nationally housing is currently softening. The plunge in mortgage applications is one telling indicator. Another is the shift from appreciation to depreciation in the case shiller index (in 18 of 20 markets I believe).
I believe San Diego, as a whole, will soon follow suit. The pause in the housing decline appears to be over. I think this will be visible in the San Diego markets by this Fall, but I’m not absolutely sure about this. I’m more confident in the general trend than exact timing.
Best of luck to all.[/quote]
FWIW, SD has historically been a leader in increases/declines relative to other markets rather than following suit. History would not bear out to SD following suit. With that said, we declined alot and then recovered a little. It wouldnt surprise me and I fully expect that we will go back to where we were a year ago in many but not all parts of SD.
June 19, 2010 at 1:04 PM #567943Participant[quote=pencilneck]Submarkets aside, its pretty clear that nationally housing is currently softening. The plunge in mortgage applications is one telling indicator. Another is the shift from appreciation to depreciation in the case shiller index (in 18 of 20 markets I believe).
I believe San Diego, as a whole, will soon follow suit. The pause in the housing decline appears to be over. I think this will be visible in the San Diego markets by this Fall, but I’m not absolutely sure about this. I’m more confident in the general trend than exact timing.
Best of luck to all.[/quote]
FWIW, SD has historically been a leader in increases/declines relative to other markets rather than following suit. History would not bear out to SD following suit. With that said, we declined alot and then recovered a little. It wouldnt surprise me and I fully expect that we will go back to where we were a year ago in many but not all parts of SD.
June 19, 2010 at 1:04 PM #568227Participant[quote=pencilneck]Submarkets aside, its pretty clear that nationally housing is currently softening. The plunge in mortgage applications is one telling indicator. Another is the shift from appreciation to depreciation in the case shiller index (in 18 of 20 markets I believe).
I believe San Diego, as a whole, will soon follow suit. The pause in the housing decline appears to be over. I think this will be visible in the San Diego markets by this Fall, but I’m not absolutely sure about this. I’m more confident in the general trend than exact timing.
Best of luck to all.[/quote]
FWIW, SD has historically been a leader in increases/declines relative to other markets rather than following suit. History would not bear out to SD following suit. With that said, we declined alot and then recovered a little. It wouldnt surprise me and I fully expect that we will go back to where we were a year ago in many but not all parts of SD.
June 19, 2010 at 2:03 PM #567279danielwis
Participant[quote=svelte]Personally, I think TG had it about right.
He waited out a majority of the price fall, then when it got near where he thought the bottom should be, he bought.
No use worrying about whether you hit absolute bottom, buy something and get on with your life. Also, every year you rent is one year longer you’ll have to pay a mortgage once you eventually do buy (not exact, but close enough).
You can come up with a million reasons to sit on the fence. But at some point, you gotta roll the dice. To me, that point is now.[/quote]
Depends on your income, bills, and rent. If you can save a substantial amount of money renting, then you could potentially have a large enough down payment in several years, to better afford a thirty or fifteen year mortgage. I am not a fan of a life time of debt that one can barely afford, and advocate saving a large sum to minimize life time debt. I am 46 and have my house paid off in full, but then I realize I am not your average chap. I worked hard, got into a lucrative career field, and also had some luck on my side. IMO, renting now is only bad if you rent AND live at the edge, saving little for the future.
June 19, 2010 at 2:03 PM #567375Participant[quote=svelte]Personally, I think TG had it about right.
He waited out a majority of the price fall, then when it got near where he thought the bottom should be, he bought.
No use worrying about whether you hit absolute bottom, buy something and get on with your life. Also, every year you rent is one year longer you’ll have to pay a mortgage once you eventually do buy (not exact, but close enough).
You can come up with a million reasons to sit on the fence. But at some point, you gotta roll the dice. To me, that point is now.[/quote]
Depends on your income, bills, and rent. If you can save a substantial amount of money renting, then you could potentially have a large enough down payment in several years, to better afford a thirty or fifteen year mortgage. I am not a fan of a life time of debt that one can barely afford, and advocate saving a large sum to minimize life time debt. I am 46 and have my house paid off in full, but then I realize I am not your average chap. I worked hard, got into a lucrative career field, and also had some luck on my side. IMO, renting now is only bad if you rent AND live at the edge, saving little for the future.
June 19, 2010 at 2:03 PM #567874Participant[quote=svelte]Personally, I think TG had it about right.
He waited out a majority of the price fall, then when it got near where he thought the bottom should be, he bought.
No use worrying about whether you hit absolute bottom, buy something and get on with your life. Also, every year you rent is one year longer you’ll have to pay a mortgage once you eventually do buy (not exact, but close enough).
You can come up with a million reasons to sit on the fence. But at some point, you gotta roll the dice. To me, that point is now.[/quote]
Depends on your income, bills, and rent. If you can save a substantial amount of money renting, then you could potentially have a large enough down payment in several years, to better afford a thirty or fifteen year mortgage. I am not a fan of a life time of debt that one can barely afford, and advocate saving a large sum to minimize life time debt. I am 46 and have my house paid off in full, but then I realize I am not your average chap. I worked hard, got into a lucrative career field, and also had some luck on my side. IMO, renting now is only bad if you rent AND live at the edge, saving little for the future.
June 19, 2010 at 2:03 PM #567982Participant[quote=svelte]Personally, I think TG had it about right.
He waited out a majority of the price fall, then when it got near where he thought the bottom should be, he bought.
No use worrying about whether you hit absolute bottom, buy something and get on with your life. Also, every year you rent is one year longer you’ll have to pay a mortgage once you eventually do buy (not exact, but close enough).
You can come up with a million reasons to sit on the fence. But at some point, you gotta roll the dice. To me, that point is now.[/quote]
Depends on your income, bills, and rent. If you can save a substantial amount of money renting, then you could potentially have a large enough down payment in several years, to better afford a thirty or fifteen year mortgage. I am not a fan of a life time of debt that one can barely afford, and advocate saving a large sum to minimize life time debt. I am 46 and have my house paid off in full, but then I realize I am not your average chap. I worked hard, got into a lucrative career field, and also had some luck on my side. IMO, renting now is only bad if you rent AND live at the edge, saving little for the future.
June 19, 2010 at 2:03 PM #568265Participant[quote=svelte]Personally, I think TG had it about right.
He waited out a majority of the price fall, then when it got near where he thought the bottom should be, he bought.
No use worrying about whether you hit absolute bottom, buy something and get on with your life. Also, every year you rent is one year longer you’ll have to pay a mortgage once you eventually do buy (not exact, but close enough).
You can come up with a million reasons to sit on the fence. But at some point, you gotta roll the dice. To me, that point is now.[/quote]
Depends on your income, bills, and rent. If you can save a substantial amount of money renting, then you could potentially have a large enough down payment in several years, to better afford a thirty or fifteen year mortgage. I am not a fan of a life time of debt that one can barely afford, and advocate saving a large sum to minimize life time debt. I am 46 and have my house paid off in full, but then I realize I am not your average chap. I worked hard, got into a lucrative career field, and also had some luck on my side. IMO, renting now is only bad if you rent AND live at the edge, saving little for the future.
June 19, 2010 at 3:14 PM #567337pencilneck
ParticipantCase Shiller index of 20 cities:
http://img33.imageshack.us/f/picture3vd.png/Sdrealtor, you’re absolutely right that San Diego is historically a leader rather than a follower in the pricing trend. History also bears out most metropolitan areas move more or less together over time. We will have to see which historical precedent wins in this case. I think the strength of the national downturn will trump this time.
Also the median sales price and the case shiller index (to a slightly lesser extent) are sometimes exaggerated by market conditions. The peak of 2005, for example, was overstated upward due to a lack of sales at the lower end. Similarly, the low of 2009 was overstated downward due to both a lack of sales at the higher end and the high volume of sales of inexpensive garbage on the lower end.
A normalized market (historically normal amount of sales among all tiers of housing) “only” returning to the 2009 lows would still be a significantly lower market overall.
June 19, 2010 at 3:14 PM #567435ParticipantCase Shiller index of 20 cities:
http://img33.imageshack.us/f/picture3vd.png/Sdrealtor, you’re absolutely right that San Diego is historically a leader rather than a follower in the pricing trend. History also bears out most metropolitan areas move more or less together over time. We will have to see which historical precedent wins in this case. I think the strength of the national downturn will trump this time.
Also the median sales price and the case shiller index (to a slightly lesser extent) are sometimes exaggerated by market conditions. The peak of 2005, for example, was overstated upward due to a lack of sales at the lower end. Similarly, the low of 2009 was overstated downward due to both a lack of sales at the higher end and the high volume of sales of inexpensive garbage on the lower end.
A normalized market (historically normal amount of sales among all tiers of housing) “only” returning to the 2009 lows would still be a significantly lower market overall.
June 19, 2010 at 3:14 PM #567933ParticipantCase Shiller index of 20 cities:
http://img33.imageshack.us/f/picture3vd.png/Sdrealtor, you’re absolutely right that San Diego is historically a leader rather than a follower in the pricing trend. History also bears out most metropolitan areas move more or less together over time. We will have to see which historical precedent wins in this case. I think the strength of the national downturn will trump this time.
Also the median sales price and the case shiller index (to a slightly lesser extent) are sometimes exaggerated by market conditions. The peak of 2005, for example, was overstated upward due to a lack of sales at the lower end. Similarly, the low of 2009 was overstated downward due to both a lack of sales at the higher end and the high volume of sales of inexpensive garbage on the lower end.
A normalized market (historically normal amount of sales among all tiers of housing) “only” returning to the 2009 lows would still be a significantly lower market overall.
June 19, 2010 at 3:14 PM #568042ParticipantCase Shiller index of 20 cities:
http://img33.imageshack.us/f/picture3vd.png/Sdrealtor, you’re absolutely right that San Diego is historically a leader rather than a follower in the pricing trend. History also bears out most metropolitan areas move more or less together over time. We will have to see which historical precedent wins in this case. I think the strength of the national downturn will trump this time.
Also the median sales price and the case shiller index (to a slightly lesser extent) are sometimes exaggerated by market conditions. The peak of 2005, for example, was overstated upward due to a lack of sales at the lower end. Similarly, the low of 2009 was overstated downward due to both a lack of sales at the higher end and the high volume of sales of inexpensive garbage on the lower end.
A normalized market (historically normal amount of sales among all tiers of housing) “only” returning to the 2009 lows would still be a significantly lower market overall.
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