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June 3, 2007 at 10:48 AM #56182June 3, 2007 at 10:48 AM #56202
latesummer2008
ParticipantRustico, I have no problem with opposing views. However, if they are done with malice, as is the case with some people here, than I will counter. Unfortunately, there are a few on piggington that nothing more than bigoted, self-serving idiots. I’m sorry, but there is no other way to describe them. And if they choose to attack me, than bring it.
I guess the question that needs to be asked is, why are they so adamant about me posting price declines for the public? I am not in Real Estate, I am a public high school science teacher. There is no vested interest, other than disseminating PUBLIC information to those who might want to use it in making their OWN decisions. With the internet, the RE industry is changing and I believe, some people might be concerned. Information is not just held by the RE industry any more. This is GOOD..
Look, I certainly don’t have a crystal ball to say what is going to happen in the RE Market. But, I can analyze data and spot trends. In looking at the downside risk possible, as opposed to the upside, the scales are severely tipped, in my opinion.
Cyphire has mentioned the real story going on right now. Look at this about, Inventory, REOs and Sales Numbers. It is an awesome visual, that many can understand.
http://bubbletrackinggraphs.blogspot.com
By the way, your property looks incredible.
June 3, 2007 at 12:02 PM #56200NotCranky
ParticipantLate,
You don’t agree that you have intentionally or unintentionally exagerated the extent of the decay in various areas of the Socal housing market?
Maybe I am wrong but it seems every one was pretty O.K. with you including that you put your blog link here, until the “Whacked” post.
Other than that I would say that your views on potential depreciation are pretty much in line with the consensus here ,if there is one(just a little more extreme). I don’t think any of the people you mentioned by name are not bust believers. Maybe just not to the exact extent you are.
I do know that on the “May Shoe Dropped” post I ask you to explain your “Faster and Deeper” ideas several times,because I tend to be of that opinion too, and you did not accept the invitation.
This type of forum is going to invite some absurd behavior.
It doesn’t have to turn into an all out war. The smear campaign you are launching is not helpful. IMHOJune 3, 2007 at 12:02 PM #56219ParticipantLate,
You don’t agree that you have intentionally or unintentionally exagerated the extent of the decay in various areas of the Socal housing market?
Maybe I am wrong but it seems every one was pretty O.K. with you including that you put your blog link here, until the “Whacked” post.
Other than that I would say that your views on potential depreciation are pretty much in line with the consensus here ,if there is one(just a little more extreme). I don’t think any of the people you mentioned by name are not bust believers. Maybe just not to the exact extent you are.
I do know that on the “May Shoe Dropped” post I ask you to explain your “Faster and Deeper” ideas several times,because I tend to be of that opinion too, and you did not accept the invitation.
This type of forum is going to invite some absurd behavior.
It doesn’t have to turn into an all out war. The smear campaign you are launching is not helpful. IMHOJune 3, 2007 at 12:16 PM #56205ParticipantI happen to believe the market is much worse than most here. That is my opinion. I believe last month was a major turning point, where higher end sales have severely started their declines in Volume and Price. It is barely starting to show up in the mainstream data. I do this as a hobby and feel I am doing potential buyers a favor.
And why should absurd behavior be tolerated? I realize anyone is free to add their opinion, but when I am personally attacked, I am not going to just sit here. Sure you can challenge what I say, but don’t challenge me personally. That is infantile.
Like I said, 90% of the people here are great. It is the other 10% who can go pound sand..
Here are some interesting graphs for you to see, that show the real story:
http://bubbletrackinggraphs.com
Bloated Inventory, REOs, Less Sales = Price Declines (Basic Supply & Demand)June 3, 2007 at 12:16 PM #56226ParticipantI happen to believe the market is much worse than most here. That is my opinion. I believe last month was a major turning point, where higher end sales have severely started their declines in Volume and Price. It is barely starting to show up in the mainstream data. I do this as a hobby and feel I am doing potential buyers a favor.
And why should absurd behavior be tolerated? I realize anyone is free to add their opinion, but when I am personally attacked, I am not going to just sit here. Sure you can challenge what I say, but don’t challenge me personally. That is infantile.
Like I said, 90% of the people here are great. It is the other 10% who can go pound sand..
Here are some interesting graphs for you to see, that show the real story:
http://bubbletrackinggraphs.com
Bloated Inventory, REOs, Less Sales = Price Declines (Basic Supply & Demand)June 3, 2007 at 4:52 PM #56221cyphire
ParticipantThanks LateSummer for the bubbletracking blog info… For some reason I never noticed that one. Also very interesting reading some of the Carmel Valley posts and problems there.
I’m still amazed at the house that just came on directly on Carmel Country road. Zillow has it at 995-1.017, the house is for sale… Oh excuse me… Entertaining offers at 1.65-1.85M!!! It’s 3400 feet on a main road and has a pool… Are people insane? Jammed in with 5 other houses in a row.
I think that you can’t really predict how quickly the market will fall because not only is the data so poor, the selling data is so laggy, the givebacks and other incentives are not disclosed and more importantly – the pent-up and future pent-up desire to unload for those worried about their futures.
I used to live in CV and with all the speculation, the trading up, trading down, investment properties and everyone I knew buying a timeshare or second home to ski, etc. There is INCREDIBLE fear in the market there.
The denial stage is still firmly upon us. We lose site because we are in this blog. I never saw a real estate blog till Jan of this year! I sold my house in Dec 06 and still really didn’t know what was going on other than the Realtor told me things were pretty dead and we better price aggressively.
She was awesome – I applied my own analysis to what I saw going on with sales and didn’t want to be in the position my neighbors are in right now – It’s 5 months later and they still haven’t sold – have finally priced their homes where mine sold at or lower – and most importantly – are still waiting for buyers to show up.
If there was anyone I cared about I wouldn’t feel too badly about trying to get them to unload at any price – even 10% below what other sales are… That is of course, if they have any intention of moving in the next 5 years.
June 3, 2007 at 4:52 PM #56242ParticipantThanks LateSummer for the bubbletracking blog info… For some reason I never noticed that one. Also very interesting reading some of the Carmel Valley posts and problems there.
I’m still amazed at the house that just came on directly on Carmel Country road. Zillow has it at 995-1.017, the house is for sale… Oh excuse me… Entertaining offers at 1.65-1.85M!!! It’s 3400 feet on a main road and has a pool… Are people insane? Jammed in with 5 other houses in a row.
I think that you can’t really predict how quickly the market will fall because not only is the data so poor, the selling data is so laggy, the givebacks and other incentives are not disclosed and more importantly – the pent-up and future pent-up desire to unload for those worried about their futures.
I used to live in CV and with all the speculation, the trading up, trading down, investment properties and everyone I knew buying a timeshare or second home to ski, etc. There is INCREDIBLE fear in the market there.
The denial stage is still firmly upon us. We lose site because we are in this blog. I never saw a real estate blog till Jan of this year! I sold my house in Dec 06 and still really didn’t know what was going on other than the Realtor told me things were pretty dead and we better price aggressively.
She was awesome – I applied my own analysis to what I saw going on with sales and didn’t want to be in the position my neighbors are in right now – It’s 5 months later and they still haven’t sold – have finally priced their homes where mine sold at or lower – and most importantly – are still waiting for buyers to show up.
If there was anyone I cared about I wouldn’t feel too badly about trying to get them to unload at any price – even 10% below what other sales are… That is of course, if they have any intention of moving in the next 5 years.
June 4, 2007 at 9:09 AM #56343(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantCy, you can add jg to the list… FormerSanDiegan will be next….mark my words. However, there are some great folks on here too. Just finding out who’s who, I guess.
What list is this ?
Political views aside, jg has provided some of the better data analysis on this board and even won some bets predicting the current 1Q 2007 GDP weakness. He’s an unabashed housing bear, and very adept at analyzing data.
June 4, 2007 at 9:09 AM #56364ParticipantCy, you can add jg to the list… FormerSanDiegan will be next….mark my words. However, there are some great folks on here too. Just finding out who’s who, I guess.
What list is this ?
Political views aside, jg has provided some of the better data analysis on this board and even won some bets predicting the current 1Q 2007 GDP weakness. He’s an unabashed housing bear, and very adept at analyzing data.
June 4, 2007 at 9:27 AM #56350sdrealtor
ParticipantCyphire,
Just got back in town. I agree with your assessment of most buyers and am well aware that the 3 clinets I mentioned are far outside the norm. They were provided as examples of buyers that are still buying for good reasons. Admittedly, there are not many like them (relatively well off individals buying for lifecycle reasons).Based upon the information you provided I’m pretty sure of where you just sold. You were spot on in all your decisions. When built they were $1M tract homes on 2 acres lots and were never worth $2M IMO (same goes for the other neighborhood with originally priced 800K tract homes on 1/2 acre lots across from La Costa Canyon that you probably know well also). I beleive that anyone spending anywhere close to $2M should be getting a custom home built to their specifications not a 5000 sq ft tract house. I have a few friends/clients that covet both of thsoe neighborhoods and are waiting for better deals. I think their nuts to even consider them and ecourage them to buy land and build their own cheaper and better. It’s amazing but you can get nicer houses in parts of RSF for the same amount that they are asking for those. I also think you did the right thing on your pricing as you did and selling in less than 60 days. Historically those homes have taken 12 to 24 months to sell and now is not the time to be riding out the market with down side risks far outweighing any upside potential.
June 4, 2007 at 9:27 AM #56372ParticipantCyphire,
Just got back in town. I agree with your assessment of most buyers and am well aware that the 3 clinets I mentioned are far outside the norm. They were provided as examples of buyers that are still buying for good reasons. Admittedly, there are not many like them (relatively well off individals buying for lifecycle reasons).Based upon the information you provided I’m pretty sure of where you just sold. You were spot on in all your decisions. When built they were $1M tract homes on 2 acres lots and were never worth $2M IMO (same goes for the other neighborhood with originally priced 800K tract homes on 1/2 acre lots across from La Costa Canyon that you probably know well also). I beleive that anyone spending anywhere close to $2M should be getting a custom home built to their specifications not a 5000 sq ft tract house. I have a few friends/clients that covet both of thsoe neighborhoods and are waiting for better deals. I think their nuts to even consider them and ecourage them to buy land and build their own cheaper and better. It’s amazing but you can get nicer houses in parts of RSF for the same amount that they are asking for those. I also think you did the right thing on your pricing as you did and selling in less than 60 days. Historically those homes have taken 12 to 24 months to sell and now is not the time to be riding out the market with down side risks far outweighing any upside potential.
June 4, 2007 at 9:54 AM #56353Participantlatesummer2008
I hope that my points on data variability and the reliability of monthly zip code stats is not lost by my sarcasm. All of my points, (including pointing you to the DQnews site so that you can get the various monthly number by county before opening your weekend LA Times), was intended to improve the reporting on this site.
If there is too much chicken little “prices have already dropped 50%” reporting here, the people will simply ignore it the next month when prices are much different in that same zip code. Perspective is important.
In late 2005 and early 2006 on this board, there was much slicing and dicing of articles and reports of continued median price increases because they didn’t reflect what was actually going on in the market. Over-exaggerating what is CURRENTLY going on to the down side is also dangerous. That is why some, like me, insist on avoiding exaggeration.
There is no doubt that the RE market is tanking and that prices are dropping. I would also agree that LS 2008 might be the earliest potential re-entry point (for SD, I think LA will be later)One more thing …
You typed:
“I realize anyone is free to add their opinion, but when I am personally attacked, I am not going to just sit here. Sure you can challenge what I say, but don’t challenge me personally. That is infantile.”I am sorry if you took offense, but all of my posts were directed at your points and not you. Having said that, I hope you still don’t think that I am “stupid” and “a friggin’ idiot”.
June 4, 2007 at 9:54 AM #56375Participantlatesummer2008
I hope that my points on data variability and the reliability of monthly zip code stats is not lost by my sarcasm. All of my points, (including pointing you to the DQnews site so that you can get the various monthly number by county before opening your weekend LA Times), was intended to improve the reporting on this site.
If there is too much chicken little “prices have already dropped 50%” reporting here, the people will simply ignore it the next month when prices are much different in that same zip code. Perspective is important.
In late 2005 and early 2006 on this board, there was much slicing and dicing of articles and reports of continued median price increases because they didn’t reflect what was actually going on in the market. Over-exaggerating what is CURRENTLY going on to the down side is also dangerous. That is why some, like me, insist on avoiding exaggeration.
There is no doubt that the RE market is tanking and that prices are dropping. I would also agree that LS 2008 might be the earliest potential re-entry point (for SD, I think LA will be later)One more thing …
You typed:
“I realize anyone is free to add their opinion, but when I am personally attacked, I am not going to just sit here. Sure you can challenge what I say, but don’t challenge me personally. That is infantile.”I am sorry if you took offense, but all of my posts were directed at your points and not you. Having said that, I hope you still don’t think that I am “stupid” and “a friggin’ idiot”.
June 4, 2007 at 6:27 PM #56572ParticipantI realize that some here think that I exaggerate, but I don’t believe most of you realize the severity of this market. I am not going to go through the all the problems facing a market such as this. We have all been through it 100 times. However, when all you see are bloated Median Prices for homes during preceding months, and then all of a sudden, you see groups of high end markets overwhelmingly negative in LA, SD and Orange counties, it draws your attention. I think you guys are kidding yourselves. I would bet the numbers from MAY will leave no doubt about how badly the market is tanking right now.
I was out looking at open houses here on the Westside of LA and traffic has slowed considerably since 2 weeks ago. Many houses are back on the market after falling out of escrow (Financing, Sale Contingencies etc..) and the few buyers out there had NO sense of urgency. The market has changed, and buyers are just sitting, watching prices drop. Why not, They aren’t going up? So what’s the rush?
Also, it was serious SIGN WARS out there this weekend. 95% of the corners had at least 1 sign, often 2,3,4 or more on them. It was pathetic. What kind of message does that send to buyers? I would imagine the same is happening in SD.The Word is Out…Here…
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