Spring Housing Prediction

[sdrealtor]

wp,
There are a few answers to that question. There are buyers that want a premiere property and would take it anywhere be it LCV, LCO or Olivenhain if it was nice enough and priced right.

Regarding LCO, it seems as though premiere lots come up there fairly regularly and I dont know that there are people waiting for them. Based upon the peak prices paid for all the homes there I fully expect plenty of premiere properties to come on the market. I would also expect that if cheap enough a LCO buyer would be fairly apt to go to Olivenhain.

LCV is a completely different animal and most of the premiere lots are still in original owners hands that paid pre-bubble pricing. I know many and the chance sof them selling or having to sell are very minimal. Should your run of the mill LCV 4 or 5 BR 2600+ sq ft home on a 10,000+ sq ft quiet cul de sac lot come on the market there will always be people waiting for that beacue they are more rare and more affordable (thus more in demand). While there are higher end areas, there are lots of folks that want a premiere lot in LCV because of the unique set of attributes it has (location, school, amenities, community feel etc.)

[highpacific]

Nothing special in this prediction:

“Sales will be strong and pricing may even creep up a little in some markets.” -sdrealtor

Remember, sales nearly always creep up in the Spring and prices nearly always show a bump in the Spring “in some markets”. LOL

But seriously very impressed that you, sdrealtor, were brave enough to risk your neck. Hope you are right but fear we will all be disappointed.

Unemployment is skyrocketing and will be 8%+ in 2009. High-end wage earners are losing jobs. Some anecdotal evidence here: I am trying to fill a software engineering position (six figure). Recieved 5 resumes this week. All of them from Carlsbad and Oceanside. Biotech mostly.

SD Econ Index

The Professor

I believe there won’t be enough people with 20%+ down payment money out there, a.k.a. pent up demand, to outweigh the economically troubled this Spring.

Is there any way to actually measure “pent up demand”? Are we left with just anecdote?

hp

[highpacific]

Nothing special in this prediction:

“Sales will be strong and pricing may even creep up a little in some markets.” -sdrealtor

Remember, sales nearly always creep up in the Spring and prices nearly always show a bump in the Spring “in some markets”. LOL

But seriously very impressed that you, sdrealtor, were brave enough to risk your neck. Hope you are right but fear we will all be disappointed.

Unemployment is skyrocketing and will be 8%+ in 2009. High-end wage earners are losing jobs. Some anecdotal evidence here: I am trying to fill a software engineering position (six figure). Recieved 5 resumes this week. All of them from Carlsbad and Oceanside. Biotech mostly.

SD Econ Index

The Professor

I believe there won’t be enough people with 20%+ down payment money out there, a.k.a. pent up demand, to outweigh the economically troubled this Spring.

Is there any way to actually measure “pent up demand”? Are we left with just anecdote?

hp

[highpacific]

Nothing special in this prediction:

“Sales will be strong and pricing may even creep up a little in some markets.” -sdrealtor

Remember, sales nearly always creep up in the Spring and prices nearly always show a bump in the Spring “in some markets”. LOL

But seriously very impressed that you, sdrealtor, were brave enough to risk your neck. Hope you are right but fear we will all be disappointed.

Unemployment is skyrocketing and will be 8%+ in 2009. High-end wage earners are losing jobs. Some anecdotal evidence here: I am trying to fill a software engineering position (six figure). Recieved 5 resumes this week. All of them from Carlsbad and Oceanside. Biotech mostly.

SD Econ Index

The Professor

I believe there won’t be enough people with 20%+ down payment money out there, a.k.a. pent up demand, to outweigh the economically troubled this Spring.

Is there any way to actually measure “pent up demand”? Are we left with just anecdote?

hp

[highpacific]

Nothing special in this prediction:

“Sales will be strong and pricing may even creep up a little in some markets.” -sdrealtor

Remember, sales nearly always creep up in the Spring and prices nearly always show a bump in the Spring “in some markets”. LOL

But seriously very impressed that you, sdrealtor, were brave enough to risk your neck. Hope you are right but fear we will all be disappointed.

Unemployment is skyrocketing and will be 8%+ in 2009. High-end wage earners are losing jobs. Some anecdotal evidence here: I am trying to fill a software engineering position (six figure). Recieved 5 resumes this week. All of them from Carlsbad and Oceanside. Biotech mostly.

SD Econ Index

The Professor

I believe there won’t be enough people with 20%+ down payment money out there, a.k.a. pent up demand, to outweigh the economically troubled this Spring.

Is there any way to actually measure “pent up demand”? Are we left with just anecdote?

hp

[highpacific]

Nothing special in this prediction:

“Sales will be strong and pricing may even creep up a little in some markets.” -sdrealtor

Remember, sales nearly always creep up in the Spring and prices nearly always show a bump in the Spring “in some markets”. LOL

But seriously very impressed that you, sdrealtor, were brave enough to risk your neck. Hope you are right but fear we will all be disappointed.

Unemployment is skyrocketing and will be 8%+ in 2009. High-end wage earners are losing jobs. Some anecdotal evidence here: I am trying to fill a software engineering position (six figure). Recieved 5 resumes this week. All of them from Carlsbad and Oceanside. Biotech mostly.

SD Econ Index

The Professor

I believe there won’t be enough people with 20%+ down payment money out there, a.k.a. pent up demand, to outweigh the economically troubled this Spring.

Is there any way to actually measure “pent up demand”? Are we left with just anecdote?

hp

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Is there any way to actually measure “pent up demand”? Are we left with just anecdote?

I don’t believe that there is any way to quantitatively measure pent-up demand. One can only observe the effects of pent-up demand when it turns into actual demand. It’s magnitude can only be known in retrospect.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Is there any way to actually measure “pent up demand”? Are we left with just anecdote?

I don’t believe that there is any way to quantitatively measure pent-up demand. One can only observe the effects of pent-up demand when it turns into actual demand. It’s magnitude can only be known in retrospect.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Is there any way to actually measure “pent up demand”? Are we left with just anecdote?

I don’t believe that there is any way to quantitatively measure pent-up demand. One can only observe the effects of pent-up demand when it turns into actual demand. It’s magnitude can only be known in retrospect.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Is there any way to actually measure “pent up demand”? Are we left with just anecdote?

I don’t believe that there is any way to quantitatively measure pent-up demand. One can only observe the effects of pent-up demand when it turns into actual demand. It’s magnitude can only be known in retrospect.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Is there any way to actually measure “pent up demand”? Are we left with just anecdote?

I don’t believe that there is any way to quantitatively measure pent-up demand. One can only observe the effects of pent-up demand when it turns into actual demand. It’s magnitude can only be known in retrospect.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

HighP

“pent up demand”?

Has anyone given any thought to (it seems to me anyway) that no one is leaving the state ???

In 1981-4 the Auto industry left the state taking many people eastward with them,

In 1991-4 the Defense industry left the state in a big way again taking many people eastward with them,

That has to create Demand at some point, and may cause quite a bounce once things do start to turn,

Also the 4.5 % rate could make things a bit more interesting at least in Socal .

Those I know will take Argument to what I say, but I have never seen the freeways or the stores so busy. I must live in a different Socal maybe.

I just hope we can keep the myth alive long enough to get the funds approved to complete the 76 fwy

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

HighP

“pent up demand”?

Has anyone given any thought to (it seems to me anyway) that no one is leaving the state ???

In 1981-4 the Auto industry left the state taking many people eastward with them,

In 1991-4 the Defense industry left the state in a big way again taking many people eastward with them,

That has to create Demand at some point, and may cause quite a bounce once things do start to turn,

Also the 4.5 % rate could make things a bit more interesting at least in Socal .

Those I know will take Argument to what I say, but I have never seen the freeways or the stores so busy. I must live in a different Socal maybe.

I just hope we can keep the myth alive long enough to get the funds approved to complete the 76 fwy

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

HighP

“pent up demand”?

Has anyone given any thought to (it seems to me anyway) that no one is leaving the state ???

In 1981-4 the Auto industry left the state taking many people eastward with them,

In 1991-4 the Defense industry left the state in a big way again taking many people eastward with them,

That has to create Demand at some point, and may cause quite a bounce once things do start to turn,

Also the 4.5 % rate could make things a bit more interesting at least in Socal .

Those I know will take Argument to what I say, but I have never seen the freeways or the stores so busy. I must live in a different Socal maybe.

I just hope we can keep the myth alive long enough to get the funds approved to complete the 76 fwy

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

HighP

“pent up demand”?

Has anyone given any thought to (it seems to me anyway) that no one is leaving the state ???

In 1981-4 the Auto industry left the state taking many people eastward with them,

In 1991-4 the Defense industry left the state in a big way again taking many people eastward with them,

That has to create Demand at some point, and may cause quite a bounce once things do start to turn,

Also the 4.5 % rate could make things a bit more interesting at least in Socal .

Those I know will take Argument to what I say, but I have never seen the freeways or the stores so busy. I must live in a different Socal maybe.

I just hope we can keep the myth alive long enough to get the funds approved to complete the 76 fwy

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