Spring Housing Prediction

[sdduuuude]

[quote=sdrealtor] … yes real estate is dying hard but it is starting to find some support under its legs. [/quote]

When I said “dying hard” I meant that it is tough to kill. Recent sales activity. You calling for a bump up this Spring. It’s trying hard not to collapse further.

[sdrealtor]

cashflow,
I dont consider 600 to 800 high priced areas. I beleive there are enough folks sitting on 100 to 200K of money that want to buy a nice home in a nice area to raise their family. $500K loans are still fairly easy to get by a HH with a $150K income which isnt all that much these days for a dual income HH or even one well paid professional. A $500K loan with a 30 year fixed rate around 6% is only $3000 P & I. At 6.5% it goes up to $3150. Add taxes, insurance and a modest HOA fee and your still under $4000/month with a real nice tax write off. With a $12K monthly income thats not all that tough.

I beleive supply will be low as folks hunker down into survival mode for the next few years and that the limited demand of buyers will balance well against limited supply of sellers. I dont consider my prediction to be for a bounce but rather a nice balanced, stable market throough this Spring.

[sdrealtor]

cashflow,
I dont consider 600 to 800 high priced areas. I beleive there are enough folks sitting on 100 to 200K of money that want to buy a nice home in a nice area to raise their family. $500K loans are still fairly easy to get by a HH with a $150K income which isnt all that much these days for a dual income HH or even one well paid professional. A $500K loan with a 30 year fixed rate around 6% is only $3000 P & I. At 6.5% it goes up to $3150. Add taxes, insurance and a modest HOA fee and your still under $4000/month with a real nice tax write off. With a $12K monthly income thats not all that tough.

I beleive supply will be low as folks hunker down into survival mode for the next few years and that the limited demand of buyers will balance well against limited supply of sellers. I dont consider my prediction to be for a bounce but rather a nice balanced, stable market throough this Spring.

[sdrealtor]

cashflow,
I dont consider 600 to 800 high priced areas. I beleive there are enough folks sitting on 100 to 200K of money that want to buy a nice home in a nice area to raise their family. $500K loans are still fairly easy to get by a HH with a $150K income which isnt all that much these days for a dual income HH or even one well paid professional. A $500K loan with a 30 year fixed rate around 6% is only $3000 P & I. At 6.5% it goes up to $3150. Add taxes, insurance and a modest HOA fee and your still under $4000/month with a real nice tax write off. With a $12K monthly income thats not all that tough.

I beleive supply will be low as folks hunker down into survival mode for the next few years and that the limited demand of buyers will balance well against limited supply of sellers. I dont consider my prediction to be for a bounce but rather a nice balanced, stable market throough this Spring.

[sdrealtor]

cashflow,
I dont consider 600 to 800 high priced areas. I beleive there are enough folks sitting on 100 to 200K of money that want to buy a nice home in a nice area to raise their family. $500K loans are still fairly easy to get by a HH with a $150K income which isnt all that much these days for a dual income HH or even one well paid professional. A $500K loan with a 30 year fixed rate around 6% is only $3000 P & I. At 6.5% it goes up to $3150. Add taxes, insurance and a modest HOA fee and your still under $4000/month with a real nice tax write off. With a $12K monthly income thats not all that tough.

I beleive supply will be low as folks hunker down into survival mode for the next few years and that the limited demand of buyers will balance well against limited supply of sellers. I dont consider my prediction to be for a bounce but rather a nice balanced, stable market throough this Spring.

[sdrealtor]

cashflow,
I dont consider 600 to 800 high priced areas. I beleive there are enough folks sitting on 100 to 200K of money that want to buy a nice home in a nice area to raise their family. $500K loans are still fairly easy to get by a HH with a $150K income which isnt all that much these days for a dual income HH or even one well paid professional. A $500K loan with a 30 year fixed rate around 6% is only $3000 P & I. At 6.5% it goes up to $3150. Add taxes, insurance and a modest HOA fee and your still under $4000/month with a real nice tax write off. With a $12K monthly income thats not all that tough.

I beleive supply will be low as folks hunker down into survival mode for the next few years and that the limited demand of buyers will balance well against limited supply of sellers. I dont consider my prediction to be for a bounce but rather a nice balanced, stable market throough this Spring.

[sdrealtor]

dude,
I followed your dying hard as meaning heading downward but with resistance. The bump I see will be stability as opposed to a continuation of the current collapsing we have gotten used to. Very limited supply in certain central areas near you will create some price strength for the quality properties.

The property that I mentioned above which has generated numerous offers (i.e. 10+ with easily that many more which could have been 20 had I not discouraged them) was on a house that had only 8 other similar homes come on the market in the last 12 months. When I see demand 2 to 3X the annual supply come in during a single week, I gotta beleive somthin’s up. Its easy to sit back as an armchair economist and predict doom but when I sit out here and field calls all day from agents begging me to consider their clients offers its hard for me not to have a splash of optimism in my Martini.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

dude,
I followed your dying hard as meaning heading downward but with resistance. The bump I see will be stability as opposed to a continuation of the current collapsing we have gotten used to. Very limited supply in certain central areas near you will create some price strength for the quality properties.

The property that I mentioned above which has generated numerous offers (i.e. 10+ with easily that many more which could have been 20 had I not discouraged them) was on a house that had only 8 other similar homes come on the market in the last 12 months. When I see demand 2 to 3X the annual supply come in during a single week, I gotta beleive somthin’s up. Its easy to sit back as an armchair economist and predict doom but when I sit out here and field calls all day from agents begging me to consider their clients offers its hard for me not to have a splash of optimism in my Martini.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

dude,
I followed your dying hard as meaning heading downward but with resistance. The bump I see will be stability as opposed to a continuation of the current collapsing we have gotten used to. Very limited supply in certain central areas near you will create some price strength for the quality properties.

The property that I mentioned above which has generated numerous offers (i.e. 10+ with easily that many more which could have been 20 had I not discouraged them) was on a house that had only 8 other similar homes come on the market in the last 12 months. When I see demand 2 to 3X the annual supply come in during a single week, I gotta beleive somthin’s up. Its easy to sit back as an armchair economist and predict doom but when I sit out here and field calls all day from agents begging me to consider their clients offers its hard for me not to have a splash of optimism in my Martini.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

dude,
I followed your dying hard as meaning heading downward but with resistance. The bump I see will be stability as opposed to a continuation of the current collapsing we have gotten used to. Very limited supply in certain central areas near you will create some price strength for the quality properties.

The property that I mentioned above which has generated numerous offers (i.e. 10+ with easily that many more which could have been 20 had I not discouraged them) was on a house that had only 8 other similar homes come on the market in the last 12 months. When I see demand 2 to 3X the annual supply come in during a single week, I gotta beleive somthin’s up. Its easy to sit back as an armchair economist and predict doom but when I sit out here and field calls all day from agents begging me to consider their clients offers its hard for me not to have a splash of optimism in my Martini.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

dude,
I followed your dying hard as meaning heading downward but with resistance. The bump I see will be stability as opposed to a continuation of the current collapsing we have gotten used to. Very limited supply in certain central areas near you will create some price strength for the quality properties.

The property that I mentioned above which has generated numerous offers (i.e. 10+ with easily that many more which could have been 20 had I not discouraged them) was on a house that had only 8 other similar homes come on the market in the last 12 months. When I see demand 2 to 3X the annual supply come in during a single week, I gotta beleive somthin’s up. Its easy to sit back as an armchair economist and predict doom but when I sit out here and field calls all day from agents begging me to consider their clients offers its hard for me not to have a splash of optimism in my Martini.

sdr

[sdduuuude]

The thing that sucks about this thread is – it’s like a 9-month long pre-game show. Now we’ve said our peace, we have to wait 9 months to see what happens. What a tease.

It’s nice, though. Nobody got nasty and nobody said their stupid political party was better than someone else’s stupid political party.

Funny how a “nice balanced, stable market” is percevied as a bounce by Piggs.

I though it was location, location, location, but now it seems it’s all about timing, timing, timing. When will the macro situation affect the local situation?

sdr – You may be right about the next few months. Stability may not last all the way through Spring. May not make it to Spring. but for now, stable it is.

Then again I thought we’d be in “holy shit” mode right now and I don’t think we are so what do I know?

[sdduuuude]

The thing that sucks about this thread is – it’s like a 9-month long pre-game show. Now we’ve said our peace, we have to wait 9 months to see what happens. What a tease.

It’s nice, though. Nobody got nasty and nobody said their stupid political party was better than someone else’s stupid political party.

Funny how a “nice balanced, stable market” is percevied as a bounce by Piggs.

I though it was location, location, location, but now it seems it’s all about timing, timing, timing. When will the macro situation affect the local situation?

sdr – You may be right about the next few months. Stability may not last all the way through Spring. May not make it to Spring. but for now, stable it is.

Then again I thought we’d be in “holy shit” mode right now and I don’t think we are so what do I know?

[sdduuuude]

The thing that sucks about this thread is – it’s like a 9-month long pre-game show. Now we’ve said our peace, we have to wait 9 months to see what happens. What a tease.

It’s nice, though. Nobody got nasty and nobody said their stupid political party was better than someone else’s stupid political party.

Funny how a “nice balanced, stable market” is percevied as a bounce by Piggs.

I though it was location, location, location, but now it seems it’s all about timing, timing, timing. When will the macro situation affect the local situation?

sdr – You may be right about the next few months. Stability may not last all the way through Spring. May not make it to Spring. but for now, stable it is.

Then again I thought we’d be in “holy shit” mode right now and I don’t think we are so what do I know?

[sdduuuude]

The thing that sucks about this thread is – it’s like a 9-month long pre-game show. Now we’ve said our peace, we have to wait 9 months to see what happens. What a tease.

It’s nice, though. Nobody got nasty and nobody said their stupid political party was better than someone else’s stupid political party.

Funny how a “nice balanced, stable market” is percevied as a bounce by Piggs.

I though it was location, location, location, but now it seems it’s all about timing, timing, timing. When will the macro situation affect the local situation?

sdr – You may be right about the next few months. Stability may not last all the way through Spring. May not make it to Spring. but for now, stable it is.

Then again I thought we’d be in “holy shit” mode right now and I don’t think we are so what do I know?

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