Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out?

[pemeliza]

I have been tracking 92106, 92107, 92103 pretty close. I get the feeling we are back to ’03 prices in these areas currently but of course there are exceptions. The high end is getting nailed this year. I also wish you would have included 92103 which I would put on par with the SD coastal zips.

I know it is a lot of work, but I wonder if you could extend your table back to ’03 prices? I also think we are going under the $400 a foot number of ’04 with higher volume so it would be nice to have ’03 to compare to.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
I was surprised also by the volume decline and yes it is the 1st five months. I dont expect higher volume and think that it will stay pretty close to where it was last year. I’d like to think prices will drop also but i think prices in the 1st 5 months of this year spiked down faster than the trend should have because of the economic panic in the air and WS crash. Prices have recovered a bit so year over year could go either way at this point.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
I was surprised also by the volume decline and yes it is the 1st five months. I dont expect higher volume and think that it will stay pretty close to where it was last year. I’d like to think prices will drop also but i think prices in the 1st 5 months of this year spiked down faster than the trend should have because of the economic panic in the air and WS crash. Prices have recovered a bit so year over year could go either way at this point.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
I was surprised also by the volume decline and yes it is the 1st five months. I dont expect higher volume and think that it will stay pretty close to where it was last year. I’d like to think prices will drop also but i think prices in the 1st 5 months of this year spiked down faster than the trend should have because of the economic panic in the air and WS crash. Prices have recovered a bit so year over year could go either way at this point.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
I was surprised also by the volume decline and yes it is the 1st five months. I dont expect higher volume and think that it will stay pretty close to where it was last year. I’d like to think prices will drop also but i think prices in the 1st 5 months of this year spiked down faster than the trend should have because of the economic panic in the air and WS crash. Prices have recovered a bit so year over year could go either way at this point.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
I was surprised also by the volume decline and yes it is the 1st five months. I dont expect higher volume and think that it will stay pretty close to where it was last year. I’d like to think prices will drop also but i think prices in the 1st 5 months of this year spiked down faster than the trend should have because of the economic panic in the air and WS crash. Prices have recovered a bit so year over year could go either way at this point.

[sdrealtor]

Pemliza
I’ll try to get the ’03 numbers later when I have more time tonite. An important thing to consider is that 2003 was a year where prices moved steady upward at a fast pace so early 2003 numbers will be very different than late 2003 numbers. Outside of the huge gap up in the first QTR of 2004 it was the most bubblicious time in this cycle. Getting back to early 2003 numbers would be a significant milestone as they should be a support level with quite a bit of resistance below that.

[sdrealtor]

Pemliza
I’ll try to get the ’03 numbers later when I have more time tonite. An important thing to consider is that 2003 was a year where prices moved steady upward at a fast pace so early 2003 numbers will be very different than late 2003 numbers. Outside of the huge gap up in the first QTR of 2004 it was the most bubblicious time in this cycle. Getting back to early 2003 numbers would be a significant milestone as they should be a support level with quite a bit of resistance below that.

[sdrealtor]

Pemliza
I’ll try to get the ’03 numbers later when I have more time tonite. An important thing to consider is that 2003 was a year where prices moved steady upward at a fast pace so early 2003 numbers will be very different than late 2003 numbers. Outside of the huge gap up in the first QTR of 2004 it was the most bubblicious time in this cycle. Getting back to early 2003 numbers would be a significant milestone as they should be a support level with quite a bit of resistance below that.

[sdrealtor]

Pemliza
I’ll try to get the ’03 numbers later when I have more time tonite. An important thing to consider is that 2003 was a year where prices moved steady upward at a fast pace so early 2003 numbers will be very different than late 2003 numbers. Outside of the huge gap up in the first QTR of 2004 it was the most bubblicious time in this cycle. Getting back to early 2003 numbers would be a significant milestone as they should be a support level with quite a bit of resistance below that.

[sdrealtor]

Pemliza
I’ll try to get the ’03 numbers later when I have more time tonite. An important thing to consider is that 2003 was a year where prices moved steady upward at a fast pace so early 2003 numbers will be very different than late 2003 numbers. Outside of the huge gap up in the first QTR of 2004 it was the most bubblicious time in this cycle. Getting back to early 2003 numbers would be a significant milestone as they should be a support level with quite a bit of resistance below that.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
I was surprised also by the volume decline and yes it is the 1st five months. I dont expect higher volume and think that it will stay pretty close to where it was last year. I’d like to think prices will drop also but i think prices in the 1st 5 months of this year spiked down faster than the trend should have because of the economic panic in the air and WS crash. Prices have recovered a bit so year over year could go either way at this point.[/quote]

So, maybe my “spring prediction” was right so far? 😉 Still, though we can find certain high-end properties with 30-45% declines, I’ll concede that the overall averages are not down that much…yet.

Submitted by CA renter on November 18, 2008 – 12:00am.
Agree that this spring will probably see pretty brisk sales…but we’ll see slower activity than 2008 (which was very high activity).

Also thinking we’ll see major price drops in the more desirable neighborhoods by Q3 2009, for an average of around 30-45% off peak in 92024 and 92009 (that’s for you sdrealtor!). 😉

I think 2008 saw the dead-cat bounce in sales which resulted in stickier prices in the upper-mid to high end properties.

After an initial period of elation in the first two quarters of 2009, activity will drop like a rock around August of next year due to macroeconomic trends (massive deflation and unemployment hitting 10%+ in California). This will also be the time that all those “re-worked” mortgages run into trouble again, and we finally see the wall of foreclosures that the govt has been trying to artificially hold back.

http://piggington.com/spring_housing_prediction

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
I was surprised also by the volume decline and yes it is the 1st five months. I dont expect higher volume and think that it will stay pretty close to where it was last year. I’d like to think prices will drop also but i think prices in the 1st 5 months of this year spiked down faster than the trend should have because of the economic panic in the air and WS crash. Prices have recovered a bit so year over year could go either way at this point.[/quote]

So, maybe my “spring prediction” was right so far? 😉 Still, though we can find certain high-end properties with 30-45% declines, I’ll concede that the overall averages are not down that much…yet.

Submitted by CA renter on November 18, 2008 – 12:00am.
Agree that this spring will probably see pretty brisk sales…but we’ll see slower activity than 2008 (which was very high activity).

Also thinking we’ll see major price drops in the more desirable neighborhoods by Q3 2009, for an average of around 30-45% off peak in 92024 and 92009 (that’s for you sdrealtor!). 😉

I think 2008 saw the dead-cat bounce in sales which resulted in stickier prices in the upper-mid to high end properties.

After an initial period of elation in the first two quarters of 2009, activity will drop like a rock around August of next year due to macroeconomic trends (massive deflation and unemployment hitting 10%+ in California). This will also be the time that all those “re-worked” mortgages run into trouble again, and we finally see the wall of foreclosures that the govt has been trying to artificially hold back.

http://piggington.com/spring_housing_prediction

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
I was surprised also by the volume decline and yes it is the 1st five months. I dont expect higher volume and think that it will stay pretty close to where it was last year. I’d like to think prices will drop also but i think prices in the 1st 5 months of this year spiked down faster than the trend should have because of the economic panic in the air and WS crash. Prices have recovered a bit so year over year could go either way at this point.[/quote]

So, maybe my “spring prediction” was right so far? 😉 Still, though we can find certain high-end properties with 30-45% declines, I’ll concede that the overall averages are not down that much…yet.

Submitted by CA renter on November 18, 2008 – 12:00am.
Agree that this spring will probably see pretty brisk sales…but we’ll see slower activity than 2008 (which was very high activity).

Also thinking we’ll see major price drops in the more desirable neighborhoods by Q3 2009, for an average of around 30-45% off peak in 92024 and 92009 (that’s for you sdrealtor!). 😉

I think 2008 saw the dead-cat bounce in sales which resulted in stickier prices in the upper-mid to high end properties.

After an initial period of elation in the first two quarters of 2009, activity will drop like a rock around August of next year due to macroeconomic trends (massive deflation and unemployment hitting 10%+ in California). This will also be the time that all those “re-worked” mortgages run into trouble again, and we finally see the wall of foreclosures that the govt has been trying to artificially hold back.

http://piggington.com/spring_housing_prediction

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
I was surprised also by the volume decline and yes it is the 1st five months. I dont expect higher volume and think that it will stay pretty close to where it was last year. I’d like to think prices will drop also but i think prices in the 1st 5 months of this year spiked down faster than the trend should have because of the economic panic in the air and WS crash. Prices have recovered a bit so year over year could go either way at this point.[/quote]

So, maybe my “spring prediction” was right so far? 😉 Still, though we can find certain high-end properties with 30-45% declines, I’ll concede that the overall averages are not down that much…yet.

Submitted by CA renter on November 18, 2008 – 12:00am.
Agree that this spring will probably see pretty brisk sales…but we’ll see slower activity than 2008 (which was very high activity).

Also thinking we’ll see major price drops in the more desirable neighborhoods by Q3 2009, for an average of around 30-45% off peak in 92024 and 92009 (that’s for you sdrealtor!). 😉

I think 2008 saw the dead-cat bounce in sales which resulted in stickier prices in the upper-mid to high end properties.

After an initial period of elation in the first two quarters of 2009, activity will drop like a rock around August of next year due to macroeconomic trends (massive deflation and unemployment hitting 10%+ in California). This will also be the time that all those “re-worked” mortgages run into trouble again, and we finally see the wall of foreclosures that the govt has been trying to artificially hold back.

http://piggington.com/spring_housing_prediction

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