Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out?

[sdrealtor]

The ZIPs I used include all the prime coastal towns – Point Loma, Ocean Beach, Pacific Beach, La Jolla, Del Mar, Carmel Valley, Solana Beach, Cardiff, Encinitas and Carlsbad. I excluded RSF because the prices are so much higher that they skew the data.

[sd_matt]

Any guesstimates as what La Mesa will do?

[sd_matt]

Any guesstimates as what La Mesa will do?

[sd_matt]

Any guesstimates as what La Mesa will do?

[sd_matt]

Any guesstimates as what La Mesa will do?

[sd_matt]

Any guesstimates as what La Mesa will do?

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Its important to remember that this was all before the credit collapse in Aug 2007. I honestly did not know what the numbers would look like until I ran them but 2 years later the verdict is in.

2004-1489
2005-1432
2006-1218
2007-1247
2008-885
2009-754
2010-TBD

Here is the averages represented by these sales (i.e. average size, selling price and price/sq ft).

2004 2,684 sq ft $1,072,428 ($400/sq ft)
2005 2,624 sq ft $1,176,811 ($448/sq ft)
2006 2,703 sq ft $1,252,146 ($463/sq ft)
2007 2,558 sq ft $1,178,553 ($468/sq ft)
2008 2,597 sq ft $1,193,847 ($464/sq ft)
2009 2,490 sq ft $997,868 ($410/sq ft)

Verdict:
sdr-prediction for next 6 months to a year intact. Little changes in price but large decline in volume most likely due to lack of jumbo financing alternatives.

Russell-a year later gets some satisfaction with a 12% decline in $/sq ft amidst even lower volume most likely due to the continued lack of jumbo financing.

Have at it piggies! Any guess what the 2010 numbers will look like?[/quote]

I’m surprised that volume is down that much. These are the first five months, right?

My prediction for the first five months of 2010 is higher volume and lower prices in these areas. Let’s say 1050 sales in the first five months, average selling price of $925K @ $389/sf.

The SHTF in Q3/Q4 of 2010 and continues through 2012/2013 when we plateau for a bit. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Its important to remember that this was all before the credit collapse in Aug 2007. I honestly did not know what the numbers would look like until I ran them but 2 years later the verdict is in.

2004-1489
2005-1432
2006-1218
2007-1247
2008-885
2009-754
2010-TBD

Here is the averages represented by these sales (i.e. average size, selling price and price/sq ft).

2004 2,684 sq ft $1,072,428 ($400/sq ft)
2005 2,624 sq ft $1,176,811 ($448/sq ft)
2006 2,703 sq ft $1,252,146 ($463/sq ft)
2007 2,558 sq ft $1,178,553 ($468/sq ft)
2008 2,597 sq ft $1,193,847 ($464/sq ft)
2009 2,490 sq ft $997,868 ($410/sq ft)

Verdict:
sdr-prediction for next 6 months to a year intact. Little changes in price but large decline in volume most likely due to lack of jumbo financing alternatives.

Russell-a year later gets some satisfaction with a 12% decline in $/sq ft amidst even lower volume most likely due to the continued lack of jumbo financing.

Have at it piggies! Any guess what the 2010 numbers will look like?[/quote]

I’m surprised that volume is down that much. These are the first five months, right?

My prediction for the first five months of 2010 is higher volume and lower prices in these areas. Let’s say 1050 sales in the first five months, average selling price of $925K @ $389/sf.

The SHTF in Q3/Q4 of 2010 and continues through 2012/2013 when we plateau for a bit. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Its important to remember that this was all before the credit collapse in Aug 2007. I honestly did not know what the numbers would look like until I ran them but 2 years later the verdict is in.

2004-1489
2005-1432
2006-1218
2007-1247
2008-885
2009-754
2010-TBD

Here is the averages represented by these sales (i.e. average size, selling price and price/sq ft).

2004 2,684 sq ft $1,072,428 ($400/sq ft)
2005 2,624 sq ft $1,176,811 ($448/sq ft)
2006 2,703 sq ft $1,252,146 ($463/sq ft)
2007 2,558 sq ft $1,178,553 ($468/sq ft)
2008 2,597 sq ft $1,193,847 ($464/sq ft)
2009 2,490 sq ft $997,868 ($410/sq ft)

Verdict:
sdr-prediction for next 6 months to a year intact. Little changes in price but large decline in volume most likely due to lack of jumbo financing alternatives.

Russell-a year later gets some satisfaction with a 12% decline in $/sq ft amidst even lower volume most likely due to the continued lack of jumbo financing.

Have at it piggies! Any guess what the 2010 numbers will look like?[/quote]

I’m surprised that volume is down that much. These are the first five months, right?

My prediction for the first five months of 2010 is higher volume and lower prices in these areas. Let’s say 1050 sales in the first five months, average selling price of $925K @ $389/sf.

The SHTF in Q3/Q4 of 2010 and continues through 2012/2013 when we plateau for a bit. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Its important to remember that this was all before the credit collapse in Aug 2007. I honestly did not know what the numbers would look like until I ran them but 2 years later the verdict is in.

2004-1489
2005-1432
2006-1218
2007-1247
2008-885
2009-754
2010-TBD

Here is the averages represented by these sales (i.e. average size, selling price and price/sq ft).

2004 2,684 sq ft $1,072,428 ($400/sq ft)
2005 2,624 sq ft $1,176,811 ($448/sq ft)
2006 2,703 sq ft $1,252,146 ($463/sq ft)
2007 2,558 sq ft $1,178,553 ($468/sq ft)
2008 2,597 sq ft $1,193,847 ($464/sq ft)
2009 2,490 sq ft $997,868 ($410/sq ft)

Verdict:
sdr-prediction for next 6 months to a year intact. Little changes in price but large decline in volume most likely due to lack of jumbo financing alternatives.

Russell-a year later gets some satisfaction with a 12% decline in $/sq ft amidst even lower volume most likely due to the continued lack of jumbo financing.

Have at it piggies! Any guess what the 2010 numbers will look like?[/quote]

I’m surprised that volume is down that much. These are the first five months, right?

My prediction for the first five months of 2010 is higher volume and lower prices in these areas. Let’s say 1050 sales in the first five months, average selling price of $925K @ $389/sf.

The SHTF in Q3/Q4 of 2010 and continues through 2012/2013 when we plateau for a bit. 😉

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Its important to remember that this was all before the credit collapse in Aug 2007. I honestly did not know what the numbers would look like until I ran them but 2 years later the verdict is in.

2004-1489
2005-1432
2006-1218
2007-1247
2008-885
2009-754
2010-TBD

Here is the averages represented by these sales (i.e. average size, selling price and price/sq ft).

2004 2,684 sq ft $1,072,428 ($400/sq ft)
2005 2,624 sq ft $1,176,811 ($448/sq ft)
2006 2,703 sq ft $1,252,146 ($463/sq ft)
2007 2,558 sq ft $1,178,553 ($468/sq ft)
2008 2,597 sq ft $1,193,847 ($464/sq ft)
2009 2,490 sq ft $997,868 ($410/sq ft)

Verdict:
sdr-prediction for next 6 months to a year intact. Little changes in price but large decline in volume most likely due to lack of jumbo financing alternatives.

Russell-a year later gets some satisfaction with a 12% decline in $/sq ft amidst even lower volume most likely due to the continued lack of jumbo financing.

Have at it piggies! Any guess what the 2010 numbers will look like?[/quote]

I’m surprised that volume is down that much. These are the first five months, right?

My prediction for the first five months of 2010 is higher volume and lower prices in these areas. Let’s say 1050 sales in the first five months, average selling price of $925K @ $389/sf.

The SHTF in Q3/Q4 of 2010 and continues through 2012/2013 when we plateau for a bit. 😉

[pemeliza]

I have been tracking 92106, 92107, 92103 pretty close. I get the feeling we are back to ’03 prices in these areas currently but of course there are exceptions. The high end is getting nailed this year. I also wish you would have included 92103 which I would put on par with the SD coastal zips.

I know it is a lot of work, but I wonder if you could extend your table back to ’03 prices? I also think we are going under the $400 a foot number of ’04 with higher volume so it would be nice to have ’03 to compare to.

[pemeliza]

I have been tracking 92106, 92107, 92103 pretty close. I get the feeling we are back to ’03 prices in these areas currently but of course there are exceptions. The high end is getting nailed this year. I also wish you would have included 92103 which I would put on par with the SD coastal zips.

I know it is a lot of work, but I wonder if you could extend your table back to ’03 prices? I also think we are going under the $400 a foot number of ’04 with higher volume so it would be nice to have ’03 to compare to.

[pemeliza]

I have been tracking 92106, 92107, 92103 pretty close. I get the feeling we are back to ’03 prices in these areas currently but of course there are exceptions. The high end is getting nailed this year. I also wish you would have included 92103 which I would put on par with the SD coastal zips.

I know it is a lot of work, but I wonder if you could extend your table back to ’03 prices? I also think we are going under the $400 a foot number of ’04 with higher volume so it would be nice to have ’03 to compare to.

[pemeliza]

I have been tracking 92106, 92107, 92103 pretty close. I get the feeling we are back to ’03 prices in these areas currently but of course there are exceptions. The high end is getting nailed this year. I also wish you would have included 92103 which I would put on par with the SD coastal zips.

I know it is a lot of work, but I wonder if you could extend your table back to ’03 prices? I also think we are going under the $400 a foot number of ’04 with higher volume so it would be nice to have ’03 to compare to.

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