Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out?

[sdrealtor]

For a peak at what the future may hold I just ran numbers on closings for the last 90 days. There were 700 closings at $397/sq ft. Of course there is seasonality, more higher end REO’s coming, late reporters etc to contend with but looks like a continuation of an orderly decline admist relatively low (but potentially increasing) volume for the time being.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]I do think the high end is much more susceptible to larger decreases.

CAR and sdr one of the factors that should be addressed is the sales to active ratios. Agree the sales volume is lower then 08 but I would guess the solds to active ratios for 09 is higher, possibly much higher then 08. I think you would both agree.[/quote]

Agree with that, SDR. Even though I had predicted slower sales, the fact that it was borne out surprised me because of what I was seeing on the street. Last year (2008) was very busy, but this year seemed almost frantic. If we had more inventory, I would certainly guess that sales would have been much higher.

The next couple of years will be interesting to watch.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]I do think the high end is much more susceptible to larger decreases.

CAR and sdr one of the factors that should be addressed is the sales to active ratios. Agree the sales volume is lower then 08 but I would guess the solds to active ratios for 09 is higher, possibly much higher then 08. I think you would both agree.[/quote]

Agree with that, SDR. Even though I had predicted slower sales, the fact that it was borne out surprised me because of what I was seeing on the street. Last year (2008) was very busy, but this year seemed almost frantic. If we had more inventory, I would certainly guess that sales would have been much higher.

The next couple of years will be interesting to watch.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]I do think the high end is much more susceptible to larger decreases.

CAR and sdr one of the factors that should be addressed is the sales to active ratios. Agree the sales volume is lower then 08 but I would guess the solds to active ratios for 09 is higher, possibly much higher then 08. I think you would both agree.[/quote]

Agree with that, SDR. Even though I had predicted slower sales, the fact that it was borne out surprised me because of what I was seeing on the street. Last year (2008) was very busy, but this year seemed almost frantic. If we had more inventory, I would certainly guess that sales would have been much higher.

The next couple of years will be interesting to watch.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]I do think the high end is much more susceptible to larger decreases.

CAR and sdr one of the factors that should be addressed is the sales to active ratios. Agree the sales volume is lower then 08 but I would guess the solds to active ratios for 09 is higher, possibly much higher then 08. I think you would both agree.[/quote]

Agree with that, SDR. Even though I had predicted slower sales, the fact that it was borne out surprised me because of what I was seeing on the street. Last year (2008) was very busy, but this year seemed almost frantic. If we had more inventory, I would certainly guess that sales would have been much higher.

The next couple of years will be interesting to watch.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]I do think the high end is much more susceptible to larger decreases.

CAR and sdr one of the factors that should be addressed is the sales to active ratios. Agree the sales volume is lower then 08 but I would guess the solds to active ratios for 09 is higher, possibly much higher then 08. I think you would both agree.[/quote]

Agree with that, SDR. Even though I had predicted slower sales, the fact that it was borne out surprised me because of what I was seeing on the street. Last year (2008) was very busy, but this year seemed almost frantic. If we had more inventory, I would certainly guess that sales would have been much higher.

The next couple of years will be interesting to watch.

[Author]

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