Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out?

[hugo]

This article in today’s NY Times has an interesting graphic on inflation adjusted house prices (resale). It shows we are not yet down to the peaks of the 70’s and 80’s housing upticks. That’s right, not even back to the peaks of previous bubbles. That’s insane. If you take 110 as the post-war mean, then prices need to drop ~ 20% more to revert to the mean.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on June 4, 2007 – 11:03am.
[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that the seasonal strength remaining in some areas this Spring will be a faint memory by September.
I anticipate that for SD county the bulk of the price drops in the area-wide numbers (e.g. median and Case-Shiller) will take place in 2007 and 2008. Looking back to the last downturn, the largest price declines were a couple years after the peak. We are entering that period now in San Diego.

It will look like a sharp decline in terms of the numbers, but as many here have noted, the changes in median price in this cycle has lagged the changes in similar house comparisons. I view the next 2 years as the reports finally catching up.

[/quote]

I will stick with what I said 15 months ago. I suspect that the bulk of the median price decline is behind us as 2008 ended. I expect that the median will still creep lower, until the high end finally drops to the point where there is activity in that part of the market.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on June 4, 2007 – 11:03am.
[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that the seasonal strength remaining in some areas this Spring will be a faint memory by September.
I anticipate that for SD county the bulk of the price drops in the area-wide numbers (e.g. median and Case-Shiller) will take place in 2007 and 2008. Looking back to the last downturn, the largest price declines were a couple years after the peak. We are entering that period now in San Diego.

It will look like a sharp decline in terms of the numbers, but as many here have noted, the changes in median price in this cycle has lagged the changes in similar house comparisons. I view the next 2 years as the reports finally catching up.

[/quote]

I will stick with what I said 15 months ago. I suspect that the bulk of the median price decline is behind us as 2008 ended. I expect that the median will still creep lower, until the high end finally drops to the point where there is activity in that part of the market.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on June 4, 2007 – 11:03am.
[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that the seasonal strength remaining in some areas this Spring will be a faint memory by September.
I anticipate that for SD county the bulk of the price drops in the area-wide numbers (e.g. median and Case-Shiller) will take place in 2007 and 2008. Looking back to the last downturn, the largest price declines were a couple years after the peak. We are entering that period now in San Diego.

It will look like a sharp decline in terms of the numbers, but as many here have noted, the changes in median price in this cycle has lagged the changes in similar house comparisons. I view the next 2 years as the reports finally catching up.

[/quote]

I will stick with what I said 15 months ago. I suspect that the bulk of the median price decline is behind us as 2008 ended. I expect that the median will still creep lower, until the high end finally drops to the point where there is activity in that part of the market.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on June 4, 2007 – 11:03am.
[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that the seasonal strength remaining in some areas this Spring will be a faint memory by September.
I anticipate that for SD county the bulk of the price drops in the area-wide numbers (e.g. median and Case-Shiller) will take place in 2007 and 2008. Looking back to the last downturn, the largest price declines were a couple years after the peak. We are entering that period now in San Diego.

It will look like a sharp decline in terms of the numbers, but as many here have noted, the changes in median price in this cycle has lagged the changes in similar house comparisons. I view the next 2 years as the reports finally catching up.

[/quote]

I will stick with what I said 15 months ago. I suspect that the bulk of the median price decline is behind us as 2008 ended. I expect that the median will still creep lower, until the high end finally drops to the point where there is activity in that part of the market.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on June 4, 2007 – 11:03am.
[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that the seasonal strength remaining in some areas this Spring will be a faint memory by September.
I anticipate that for SD county the bulk of the price drops in the area-wide numbers (e.g. median and Case-Shiller) will take place in 2007 and 2008. Looking back to the last downturn, the largest price declines were a couple years after the peak. We are entering that period now in San Diego.

It will look like a sharp decline in terms of the numbers, but as many here have noted, the changes in median price in this cycle has lagged the changes in similar house comparisons. I view the next 2 years as the reports finally catching up.

[/quote]

I will stick with what I said 15 months ago. I suspect that the bulk of the median price decline is behind us as 2008 ended. I expect that the median will still creep lower, until the high end finally drops to the point where there is activity in that part of the market.

[NotCranky]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on June 4, 2007 – 11:03am.
[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that the seasonal strength remaining in some areas this Spring will be a faint memory by September.
I anticipate that for SD county the bulk of the price drops in the area-wide numbers (e.g. median and Case-Shiller) will take place in 2007 and 2008. Looking back to the last downturn, the largest price declines were a couple years after the peak. We are entering that period now in San Diego.

It will look like a sharp decline in terms of the numbers, but as many here have noted, the changes in median price in this cycle has lagged the changes in similar house comparisons. I view the next 2 years as the reports finally catching up.

[/quote]

I will stick with what I said 15 months ago. I suspect that the bulk of the median price decline is behind us as 2008 ended. I expect that the median will still creep lower, until the high end finally drops to the point where there is activity in that part of the market.

[/quote]

FSD,
Looks like you pretty much hit a dead ringer. If the rest comes true you will have one of the most consistently accurate records and I believe it predates this blog. Your future predictions seem likely.

[NotCranky]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on June 4, 2007 – 11:03am.
[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that the seasonal strength remaining in some areas this Spring will be a faint memory by September.
I anticipate that for SD county the bulk of the price drops in the area-wide numbers (e.g. median and Case-Shiller) will take place in 2007 and 2008. Looking back to the last downturn, the largest price declines were a couple years after the peak. We are entering that period now in San Diego.

It will look like a sharp decline in terms of the numbers, but as many here have noted, the changes in median price in this cycle has lagged the changes in similar house comparisons. I view the next 2 years as the reports finally catching up.

[/quote]

I will stick with what I said 15 months ago. I suspect that the bulk of the median price decline is behind us as 2008 ended. I expect that the median will still creep lower, until the high end finally drops to the point where there is activity in that part of the market.

[/quote]

FSD,
Looks like you pretty much hit a dead ringer. If the rest comes true you will have one of the most consistently accurate records and I believe it predates this blog. Your future predictions seem likely.

[NotCranky]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on June 4, 2007 – 11:03am.
[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that the seasonal strength remaining in some areas this Spring will be a faint memory by September.
I anticipate that for SD county the bulk of the price drops in the area-wide numbers (e.g. median and Case-Shiller) will take place in 2007 and 2008. Looking back to the last downturn, the largest price declines were a couple years after the peak. We are entering that period now in San Diego.

It will look like a sharp decline in terms of the numbers, but as many here have noted, the changes in median price in this cycle has lagged the changes in similar house comparisons. I view the next 2 years as the reports finally catching up.

[/quote]

I will stick with what I said 15 months ago. I suspect that the bulk of the median price decline is behind us as 2008 ended. I expect that the median will still creep lower, until the high end finally drops to the point where there is activity in that part of the market.

[/quote]

FSD,
Looks like you pretty much hit a dead ringer. If the rest comes true you will have one of the most consistently accurate records and I believe it predates this blog. Your future predictions seem likely.

[NotCranky]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on June 4, 2007 – 11:03am.
[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that the seasonal strength remaining in some areas this Spring will be a faint memory by September.
I anticipate that for SD county the bulk of the price drops in the area-wide numbers (e.g. median and Case-Shiller) will take place in 2007 and 2008. Looking back to the last downturn, the largest price declines were a couple years after the peak. We are entering that period now in San Diego.

It will look like a sharp decline in terms of the numbers, but as many here have noted, the changes in median price in this cycle has lagged the changes in similar house comparisons. I view the next 2 years as the reports finally catching up.

[/quote]

I will stick with what I said 15 months ago. I suspect that the bulk of the median price decline is behind us as 2008 ended. I expect that the median will still creep lower, until the high end finally drops to the point where there is activity in that part of the market.

[/quote]

FSD,
Looks like you pretty much hit a dead ringer. If the rest comes true you will have one of the most consistently accurate records and I believe it predates this blog. Your future predictions seem likely.

[NotCranky]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on June 4, 2007 – 11:03am.
[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that the seasonal strength remaining in some areas this Spring will be a faint memory by September.
I anticipate that for SD county the bulk of the price drops in the area-wide numbers (e.g. median and Case-Shiller) will take place in 2007 and 2008. Looking back to the last downturn, the largest price declines were a couple years after the peak. We are entering that period now in San Diego.

It will look like a sharp decline in terms of the numbers, but as many here have noted, the changes in median price in this cycle has lagged the changes in similar house comparisons. I view the next 2 years as the reports finally catching up.

[/quote]

I will stick with what I said 15 months ago. I suspect that the bulk of the median price decline is behind us as 2008 ended. I expect that the median will still creep lower, until the high end finally drops to the point where there is activity in that part of the market.

[/quote]

FSD,
Looks like you pretty much hit a dead ringer. If the rest comes true you will have one of the most consistently accurate records and I believe it predates this blog. Your future predictions seem likely.

[NotCranky]

OOPS! I bumped it again!

[NotCranky]

OOPS! I bumped it again!

[NotCranky]

OOPS! I bumped it again!

[NotCranky]

OOPS! I bumped it again!

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