Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out?

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

I was very sure of the clarity of what my crystal ball said way back in 2005, and I shared that with all here and was treated as a nut case (who cares, right?)that with concrete action and total trust to its predictions, I confided here that I sold my San Diego house at the peak – Oct. 2005. Then I fled to Austin, Texas, where we are currently enjoying one of the lowest unemployment rates among the biggest states in U.S. With no income tax Austin is a great place for tech jobs. We are also currently enjoying one of the biggest parties anywhere, better than Bourbon St., South by Southwest.

Too bad for San Diego for it is currently unravelling, and so many people there are up to their eyeballs in debt for a loooooooong time. The equity is gone but the debt stays almost forever.

My crystal ball also predicted, and I have made requests for pension fund managers to get out of MBS, CMO, and CDO garbages waaaaay back when many years ago, that defined-benefit pension plans would suffer huge setbacks. Sure enough – the huge chunks that were lost by the County of San Diego pension fund bears the fruition of such a prediction. The chief investment officer had gone buh-bye after $2+Billion chunk had evaporated. Could you imagine working for how so many many years to get vested and then suddenly finding out that your pension plan promised to you might be gutted when the time comes to collect?

Was it good to sell at the top of the bubble to sock away retirement money in safe CD’s because the pension plans might face trouble in another Great Depression? Hell YEAH! My crystal ball predictions were right.

[Aecetia]

Price declines in real estate:

I saved this quote from early 2008, because I thought it sounded plausible.

“Tue 2/19/2008 10:34 AM
Price declines in real estate
We will see 20% decline in 2008, 14% decline in 2009, 8% decline in 2010. This bust will bleed itself out and then by then credit markets will have stabilized and we can reinject life into the carcass known as “residential housing.”

The automotive market is a slaughter as well. This is not because housing is going down but that banks can’t make the lending profitable given prior criteria.

Best of luck to all of you 🙂

SDhousehunter”

[Aecetia]

Price declines in real estate:

I saved this quote from early 2008, because I thought it sounded plausible.

“Tue 2/19/2008 10:34 AM
Price declines in real estate
We will see 20% decline in 2008, 14% decline in 2009, 8% decline in 2010. This bust will bleed itself out and then by then credit markets will have stabilized and we can reinject life into the carcass known as “residential housing.”

The automotive market is a slaughter as well. This is not because housing is going down but that banks can’t make the lending profitable given prior criteria.

Best of luck to all of you 🙂

SDhousehunter”

[Aecetia]

Price declines in real estate:

I saved this quote from early 2008, because I thought it sounded plausible.

“Tue 2/19/2008 10:34 AM
Price declines in real estate
We will see 20% decline in 2008, 14% decline in 2009, 8% decline in 2010. This bust will bleed itself out and then by then credit markets will have stabilized and we can reinject life into the carcass known as “residential housing.”

The automotive market is a slaughter as well. This is not because housing is going down but that banks can’t make the lending profitable given prior criteria.

Best of luck to all of you 🙂

SDhousehunter”

[Aecetia]

Price declines in real estate:

I saved this quote from early 2008, because I thought it sounded plausible.

“Tue 2/19/2008 10:34 AM
Price declines in real estate
We will see 20% decline in 2008, 14% decline in 2009, 8% decline in 2010. This bust will bleed itself out and then by then credit markets will have stabilized and we can reinject life into the carcass known as “residential housing.”

The automotive market is a slaughter as well. This is not because housing is going down but that banks can’t make the lending profitable given prior criteria.

Best of luck to all of you 🙂

SDhousehunter”

[Aecetia]

Price declines in real estate:

I saved this quote from early 2008, because I thought it sounded plausible.

“Tue 2/19/2008 10:34 AM
Price declines in real estate
We will see 20% decline in 2008, 14% decline in 2009, 8% decline in 2010. This bust will bleed itself out and then by then credit markets will have stabilized and we can reinject life into the carcass known as “residential housing.”

The automotive market is a slaughter as well. This is not because housing is going down but that banks can’t make the lending profitable given prior criteria.

Best of luck to all of you 🙂

SDhousehunter”

[NotCranky]

That’s awesome Nancy. I am happy for you and don’t even know you. Rich Toscano’s buddy Scott Lewis, at the “Voice of San Diego”,recently wrote a good article on Dianne Jacob’s “State of the County” address and pension concerns.I am having trouble linking it, but if you want to read it, just go there and enter the search “Dianne Jacob”.voiceofsandiego.org,

[NotCranky]

That’s awesome Nancy. I am happy for you and don’t even know you. Rich Toscano’s buddy Scott Lewis, at the “Voice of San Diego”,recently wrote a good article on Dianne Jacob’s “State of the County” address and pension concerns.I am having trouble linking it, but if you want to read it, just go there and enter the search “Dianne Jacob”.voiceofsandiego.org,

[NotCranky]

That’s awesome Nancy. I am happy for you and don’t even know you. Rich Toscano’s buddy Scott Lewis, at the “Voice of San Diego”,recently wrote a good article on Dianne Jacob’s “State of the County” address and pension concerns.I am having trouble linking it, but if you want to read it, just go there and enter the search “Dianne Jacob”.voiceofsandiego.org,

[NotCranky]

That’s awesome Nancy. I am happy for you and don’t even know you. Rich Toscano’s buddy Scott Lewis, at the “Voice of San Diego”,recently wrote a good article on Dianne Jacob’s “State of the County” address and pension concerns.I am having trouble linking it, but if you want to read it, just go there and enter the search “Dianne Jacob”.voiceofsandiego.org,

[NotCranky]

That’s awesome Nancy. I am happy for you and don’t even know you. Rich Toscano’s buddy Scott Lewis, at the “Voice of San Diego”,recently wrote a good article on Dianne Jacob’s “State of the County” address and pension concerns.I am having trouble linking it, but if you want to read it, just go there and enter the search “Dianne Jacob”.voiceofsandiego.org,

[hugo]

This article in today’s NY Times has an interesting graphic on inflation adjusted house prices (resale). It shows we are not yet down to the peaks of the 70’s and 80’s housing upticks. That’s right, not even back to the peaks of previous bubbles. That’s insane. If you take 110 as the post-war mean, then prices need to drop ~ 20% more to revert to the mean.

[hugo]

This article in today’s NY Times has an interesting graphic on inflation adjusted house prices (resale). It shows we are not yet down to the peaks of the 70’s and 80’s housing upticks. That’s right, not even back to the peaks of previous bubbles. That’s insane. If you take 110 as the post-war mean, then prices need to drop ~ 20% more to revert to the mean.

[hugo]

This article in today’s NY Times has an interesting graphic on inflation adjusted house prices (resale). It shows we are not yet down to the peaks of the 70’s and 80’s housing upticks. That’s right, not even back to the peaks of previous bubbles. That’s insane. If you take 110 as the post-war mean, then prices need to drop ~ 20% more to revert to the mean.

[hugo]

This article in today’s NY Times has an interesting graphic on inflation adjusted house prices (resale). It shows we are not yet down to the peaks of the 70’s and 80’s housing upticks. That’s right, not even back to the peaks of previous bubbles. That’s insane. If you take 110 as the post-war mean, then prices need to drop ~ 20% more to revert to the mean.

[Author]

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