Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out?

[NotCranky]

“The market continues to adjust slowly. Prices are still creeping down slowly.”

Yes I am certain of that. Next week we should see really slow declines and 5 out of the next 7 days after that will be slow. Nothing to see here…move along. Obviously, I see the bias thing differently than you and SDR see it. I think patiently said something about rear view mirrors. It is slow until proven otherwise, then it is slow again.

My prediction: More of the same and on a broader scale. I am
still hoping for that “DEAD CAT BOUNCE” everyone talks about though.I am almost getting ready to predict it for March 13th through the 27th, 2008, but I think I will try to give the impression that it might last for a few years, by which time the correction might be over.

[SD Realtor]

We are kind of intertwining two different threads but nothing wrong with that. On page 1 of this thread waiting hawk commented about big chunks happening if a macro event such as a recession occurs. I think we all concur on that point. If there is some sort of catalyst that either sharply erodes buying power, confidence, etc… then yes we will see big chunks throughout the desireability spectrum. Without it, we will see the slow roll down.

Now in the other San Marcos thread PW commented on realtors, appraisers looking back instead of forward to help people price. I guess to everyone has thier own methods. My statement would be that when I sit down with people at a listing appointment it is not just a look back. Yes we look at previous sales but today a seller has to be made aware of the trend of THAT PARTICULAR neighborhood. A listing in Lakeside has to know what is going on in Lakeside not Carlsbad. A listing in La Costa Valley does not care what is happening in San Carlos. The micro markets differ much more wildly then people acknowledge thus pricing recommendations will vary as well.

I guess my point is that instructing a seller of the prevailing trend in the neighborhood, challenges of appraisals, and market conditions in the neighborhood is just as important, if not more important then comps.

The biggest challenge is GETTING THEM TO LISTEN!! I am telling you guys it is really hard. Those that do listen often see a sale in a relatively quick time. Could they perhaps have left some money on the table? Of course…. yet they are the ones who don’t get caught in the depreciation slide. They jumped on the lifeboat and are on the way to safety!

Like a damn breaking, price declines in a given neighborhood happen with singular events right, small leaks? Maybe a foreclosure or a distressed sale, then another, then more and more, then non distressed sellers having to react because the volume is great enough. This progression takes time and is fueled by recursion of multiple sales repeating the event.

I don’t think that I look back as you are saying… doubtful that sdr does either. I think our point is that it is easy to point out the declines of the singular events AND it is easy to point out why things should decline. Of course they should decline! The market sucks, the homes were over valued, the lenders are tightening up, the CDO market is all but dead, the economy is grim… Jeez it is like fishing for trout in a barrel…

The hard part that confounds people is, why are there still sales out there? Why are people still buying and paying pretty darn high prices for homes in CV and LCV and 4S? Why are those markets taking so long? This sort of activity is why someone like myself (and I think sdr) comment in the ways that we do. It is not to refute facts of the downturn or the depreciation, it is to just point out that in some cases demand is still there, (yes it is diminished from the peak) but because it is still there it props things up…

It is not a case of looking backward, it is a case of analyzing the present…My post is not to advocate the market or tow the line. It is to just try to explain what is happening or continuing to happen. Can it be disrupted? Absolutely. In the absence of nothing catastrophic will declines occur. Yepp…At what rate? It will vary by the neighborhood…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

We are kind of intertwining two different threads but nothing wrong with that. On page 1 of this thread waiting hawk commented about big chunks happening if a macro event such as a recession occurs. I think we all concur on that point. If there is some sort of catalyst that either sharply erodes buying power, confidence, etc… then yes we will see big chunks throughout the desireability spectrum. Without it, we will see the slow roll down.

Now in the other San Marcos thread PW commented on realtors, appraisers looking back instead of forward to help people price. I guess to everyone has thier own methods. My statement would be that when I sit down with people at a listing appointment it is not just a look back. Yes we look at previous sales but today a seller has to be made aware of the trend of THAT PARTICULAR neighborhood. A listing in Lakeside has to know what is going on in Lakeside not Carlsbad. A listing in La Costa Valley does not care what is happening in San Carlos. The micro markets differ much more wildly then people acknowledge thus pricing recommendations will vary as well.

I guess my point is that instructing a seller of the prevailing trend in the neighborhood, challenges of appraisals, and market conditions in the neighborhood is just as important, if not more important then comps.

The biggest challenge is GETTING THEM TO LISTEN!! I am telling you guys it is really hard. Those that do listen often see a sale in a relatively quick time. Could they perhaps have left some money on the table? Of course…. yet they are the ones who don’t get caught in the depreciation slide. They jumped on the lifeboat and are on the way to safety!

Like a damn breaking, price declines in a given neighborhood happen with singular events right, small leaks? Maybe a foreclosure or a distressed sale, then another, then more and more, then non distressed sellers having to react because the volume is great enough. This progression takes time and is fueled by recursion of multiple sales repeating the event.

I don’t think that I look back as you are saying… doubtful that sdr does either. I think our point is that it is easy to point out the declines of the singular events AND it is easy to point out why things should decline. Of course they should decline! The market sucks, the homes were over valued, the lenders are tightening up, the CDO market is all but dead, the economy is grim… Jeez it is like fishing for trout in a barrel…

The hard part that confounds people is, why are there still sales out there? Why are people still buying and paying pretty darn high prices for homes in CV and LCV and 4S? Why are those markets taking so long? This sort of activity is why someone like myself (and I think sdr) comment in the ways that we do. It is not to refute facts of the downturn or the depreciation, it is to just point out that in some cases demand is still there, (yes it is diminished from the peak) but because it is still there it props things up…

It is not a case of looking backward, it is a case of analyzing the present…My post is not to advocate the market or tow the line. It is to just try to explain what is happening or continuing to happen. Can it be disrupted? Absolutely. In the absence of nothing catastrophic will declines occur. Yepp…At what rate? It will vary by the neighborhood…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

We are kind of intertwining two different threads but nothing wrong with that. On page 1 of this thread waiting hawk commented about big chunks happening if a macro event such as a recession occurs. I think we all concur on that point. If there is some sort of catalyst that either sharply erodes buying power, confidence, etc… then yes we will see big chunks throughout the desireability spectrum. Without it, we will see the slow roll down.

Now in the other San Marcos thread PW commented on realtors, appraisers looking back instead of forward to help people price. I guess to everyone has thier own methods. My statement would be that when I sit down with people at a listing appointment it is not just a look back. Yes we look at previous sales but today a seller has to be made aware of the trend of THAT PARTICULAR neighborhood. A listing in Lakeside has to know what is going on in Lakeside not Carlsbad. A listing in La Costa Valley does not care what is happening in San Carlos. The micro markets differ much more wildly then people acknowledge thus pricing recommendations will vary as well.

I guess my point is that instructing a seller of the prevailing trend in the neighborhood, challenges of appraisals, and market conditions in the neighborhood is just as important, if not more important then comps.

The biggest challenge is GETTING THEM TO LISTEN!! I am telling you guys it is really hard. Those that do listen often see a sale in a relatively quick time. Could they perhaps have left some money on the table? Of course…. yet they are the ones who don’t get caught in the depreciation slide. They jumped on the lifeboat and are on the way to safety!

Like a damn breaking, price declines in a given neighborhood happen with singular events right, small leaks? Maybe a foreclosure or a distressed sale, then another, then more and more, then non distressed sellers having to react because the volume is great enough. This progression takes time and is fueled by recursion of multiple sales repeating the event.

I don’t think that I look back as you are saying… doubtful that sdr does either. I think our point is that it is easy to point out the declines of the singular events AND it is easy to point out why things should decline. Of course they should decline! The market sucks, the homes were over valued, the lenders are tightening up, the CDO market is all but dead, the economy is grim… Jeez it is like fishing for trout in a barrel…

The hard part that confounds people is, why are there still sales out there? Why are people still buying and paying pretty darn high prices for homes in CV and LCV and 4S? Why are those markets taking so long? This sort of activity is why someone like myself (and I think sdr) comment in the ways that we do. It is not to refute facts of the downturn or the depreciation, it is to just point out that in some cases demand is still there, (yes it is diminished from the peak) but because it is still there it props things up…

It is not a case of looking backward, it is a case of analyzing the present…My post is not to advocate the market or tow the line. It is to just try to explain what is happening or continuing to happen. Can it be disrupted? Absolutely. In the absence of nothing catastrophic will declines occur. Yepp…At what rate? It will vary by the neighborhood…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

We are kind of intertwining two different threads but nothing wrong with that. On page 1 of this thread waiting hawk commented about big chunks happening if a macro event such as a recession occurs. I think we all concur on that point. If there is some sort of catalyst that either sharply erodes buying power, confidence, etc… then yes we will see big chunks throughout the desireability spectrum. Without it, we will see the slow roll down.

Now in the other San Marcos thread PW commented on realtors, appraisers looking back instead of forward to help people price. I guess to everyone has thier own methods. My statement would be that when I sit down with people at a listing appointment it is not just a look back. Yes we look at previous sales but today a seller has to be made aware of the trend of THAT PARTICULAR neighborhood. A listing in Lakeside has to know what is going on in Lakeside not Carlsbad. A listing in La Costa Valley does not care what is happening in San Carlos. The micro markets differ much more wildly then people acknowledge thus pricing recommendations will vary as well.

I guess my point is that instructing a seller of the prevailing trend in the neighborhood, challenges of appraisals, and market conditions in the neighborhood is just as important, if not more important then comps.

The biggest challenge is GETTING THEM TO LISTEN!! I am telling you guys it is really hard. Those that do listen often see a sale in a relatively quick time. Could they perhaps have left some money on the table? Of course…. yet they are the ones who don’t get caught in the depreciation slide. They jumped on the lifeboat and are on the way to safety!

Like a damn breaking, price declines in a given neighborhood happen with singular events right, small leaks? Maybe a foreclosure or a distressed sale, then another, then more and more, then non distressed sellers having to react because the volume is great enough. This progression takes time and is fueled by recursion of multiple sales repeating the event.

I don’t think that I look back as you are saying… doubtful that sdr does either. I think our point is that it is easy to point out the declines of the singular events AND it is easy to point out why things should decline. Of course they should decline! The market sucks, the homes were over valued, the lenders are tightening up, the CDO market is all but dead, the economy is grim… Jeez it is like fishing for trout in a barrel…

The hard part that confounds people is, why are there still sales out there? Why are people still buying and paying pretty darn high prices for homes in CV and LCV and 4S? Why are those markets taking so long? This sort of activity is why someone like myself (and I think sdr) comment in the ways that we do. It is not to refute facts of the downturn or the depreciation, it is to just point out that in some cases demand is still there, (yes it is diminished from the peak) but because it is still there it props things up…

It is not a case of looking backward, it is a case of analyzing the present…My post is not to advocate the market or tow the line. It is to just try to explain what is happening or continuing to happen. Can it be disrupted? Absolutely. In the absence of nothing catastrophic will declines occur. Yepp…At what rate? It will vary by the neighborhood…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

We are kind of intertwining two different threads but nothing wrong with that. On page 1 of this thread waiting hawk commented about big chunks happening if a macro event such as a recession occurs. I think we all concur on that point. If there is some sort of catalyst that either sharply erodes buying power, confidence, etc… then yes we will see big chunks throughout the desireability spectrum. Without it, we will see the slow roll down.

Now in the other San Marcos thread PW commented on realtors, appraisers looking back instead of forward to help people price. I guess to everyone has thier own methods. My statement would be that when I sit down with people at a listing appointment it is not just a look back. Yes we look at previous sales but today a seller has to be made aware of the trend of THAT PARTICULAR neighborhood. A listing in Lakeside has to know what is going on in Lakeside not Carlsbad. A listing in La Costa Valley does not care what is happening in San Carlos. The micro markets differ much more wildly then people acknowledge thus pricing recommendations will vary as well.

I guess my point is that instructing a seller of the prevailing trend in the neighborhood, challenges of appraisals, and market conditions in the neighborhood is just as important, if not more important then comps.

The biggest challenge is GETTING THEM TO LISTEN!! I am telling you guys it is really hard. Those that do listen often see a sale in a relatively quick time. Could they perhaps have left some money on the table? Of course…. yet they are the ones who don’t get caught in the depreciation slide. They jumped on the lifeboat and are on the way to safety!

Like a damn breaking, price declines in a given neighborhood happen with singular events right, small leaks? Maybe a foreclosure or a distressed sale, then another, then more and more, then non distressed sellers having to react because the volume is great enough. This progression takes time and is fueled by recursion of multiple sales repeating the event.

I don’t think that I look back as you are saying… doubtful that sdr does either. I think our point is that it is easy to point out the declines of the singular events AND it is easy to point out why things should decline. Of course they should decline! The market sucks, the homes were over valued, the lenders are tightening up, the CDO market is all but dead, the economy is grim… Jeez it is like fishing for trout in a barrel…

The hard part that confounds people is, why are there still sales out there? Why are people still buying and paying pretty darn high prices for homes in CV and LCV and 4S? Why are those markets taking so long? This sort of activity is why someone like myself (and I think sdr) comment in the ways that we do. It is not to refute facts of the downturn or the depreciation, it is to just point out that in some cases demand is still there, (yes it is diminished from the peak) but because it is still there it props things up…

It is not a case of looking backward, it is a case of analyzing the present…My post is not to advocate the market or tow the line. It is to just try to explain what is happening or continuing to happen. Can it be disrupted? Absolutely. In the absence of nothing catastrophic will declines occur. Yepp…At what rate? It will vary by the neighborhood…

SD Realtor

[waiting for bottom]

Carlsbad is begining to crumble.

I hope we are past the argument that coastal is holding up. Here’s one data point that puts North Carlsbad back to early 2004 pricing.

Current Listings:
2351 Merwin – $679K – $286 sq/ft -Last Sale: $635K 1/04
5059 Ciardi – $650K – $271 sq/ft – Last Sale: $779K 12/05
3864 Stoneridge – $650K – $244 sq/ft -Last Sale: $735 – 4/05

Recent Comps:
5089 Lynch – $690K – $287 sq/ft – 9/07
4680 Meadow – $679 – $275 sq/ft – 9/07

Take Merwin down to $271 sq/ft and you are at $641K, just a smidge above 1/04 pricing.

[waiting for bottom]

Carlsbad is begining to crumble.

I hope we are past the argument that coastal is holding up. Here’s one data point that puts North Carlsbad back to early 2004 pricing.

Current Listings:
2351 Merwin – $679K – $286 sq/ft -Last Sale: $635K 1/04
5059 Ciardi – $650K – $271 sq/ft – Last Sale: $779K 12/05
3864 Stoneridge – $650K – $244 sq/ft -Last Sale: $735 – 4/05

Recent Comps:
5089 Lynch – $690K – $287 sq/ft – 9/07
4680 Meadow – $679 – $275 sq/ft – 9/07

Take Merwin down to $271 sq/ft and you are at $641K, just a smidge above 1/04 pricing.

[waiting for bottom]

Carlsbad is begining to crumble.

I hope we are past the argument that coastal is holding up. Here’s one data point that puts North Carlsbad back to early 2004 pricing.

Current Listings:
2351 Merwin – $679K – $286 sq/ft -Last Sale: $635K 1/04
5059 Ciardi – $650K – $271 sq/ft – Last Sale: $779K 12/05
3864 Stoneridge – $650K – $244 sq/ft -Last Sale: $735 – 4/05

Recent Comps:
5089 Lynch – $690K – $287 sq/ft – 9/07
4680 Meadow – $679 – $275 sq/ft – 9/07

Take Merwin down to $271 sq/ft and you are at $641K, just a smidge above 1/04 pricing.

[waiting for bottom]

Carlsbad is begining to crumble.

I hope we are past the argument that coastal is holding up. Here’s one data point that puts North Carlsbad back to early 2004 pricing.

Current Listings:
2351 Merwin – $679K – $286 sq/ft -Last Sale: $635K 1/04
5059 Ciardi – $650K – $271 sq/ft – Last Sale: $779K 12/05
3864 Stoneridge – $650K – $244 sq/ft -Last Sale: $735 – 4/05

Recent Comps:
5089 Lynch – $690K – $287 sq/ft – 9/07
4680 Meadow – $679 – $275 sq/ft – 9/07

Take Merwin down to $271 sq/ft and you are at $641K, just a smidge above 1/04 pricing.

[waiting for bottom]

Carlsbad is begining to crumble.

I hope we are past the argument that coastal is holding up. Here’s one data point that puts North Carlsbad back to early 2004 pricing.

Current Listings:
2351 Merwin – $679K – $286 sq/ft -Last Sale: $635K 1/04
5059 Ciardi – $650K – $271 sq/ft – Last Sale: $779K 12/05
3864 Stoneridge – $650K – $244 sq/ft -Last Sale: $735 – 4/05

Recent Comps:
5089 Lynch – $690K – $287 sq/ft – 9/07
4680 Meadow – $679 – $275 sq/ft – 9/07

Take Merwin down to $271 sq/ft and you are at $641K, just a smidge above 1/04 pricing.

[SD Realtor]

I am not trying to prop up the market. Just trying to pose another view of the data.

Merwin is a 2368 sf home in the Canterbury subdivision. It is currently priced at 679-719k.

Here is all of the MLS activity for SOLDS in Canterbury for the past few years:

2349 Jeffers 2368 sf 731k 308/sf 7/9/07
5089 Lynch 2398 sf 690k 289/sf 9/13/07
2286 Hillyer 3038 sf 795k 261/sf 5/31/07
2383 Merwin 2810 sf 755k 268/sf 5/22/06
2353 Jeffers 2620 sf 835k 318/sf 9/29/06
5103 Frost 2620 sf 812k 312/sf 9/12/05
5082 Lynch 2810 sf 860k 306/sf 3/17/05
5110 Lynch 2810 sf 845k 300/sf 6/27/05
5077 Lynch 3038 sf 801k 263/sf 2/28/05
2353 Jeffers 2620 sf 830k 316/sf 7/6/04
5082 Lynch 2810 sf 834k 296/sf 4/5/04
2364 Merwin 2400 sf 653k 272/sf 1/28/04
2375 Merwin 2400 sf 650k 270/sf 11/14/03
2360 Merwin 2620 sf 630k 240/sf 9/25/03
5095 Frost 2368 sf 620k 261/sf 12/12/03
5072 Ciardi 2222 sf 609k 274/sf 8/14/03

Okay so just a few points…

I would not characterize this area in the same league as Carmel Valley, La Costa Valley, 4S… etc… I am not saying anything is wrong with this area. I am saying that at least for buyers I have active searches for who have given me strict criteria, this neighborhood is not one of them.

Another thing, in all of 2005, 2006 and most all of 2004, not a single small model (the 2398 sf) was sold. I am not debunking your data waiting for bottom, I am just trying to present it in a more comprehensive manner. So yes by pure square footage, you are correct but then again, there is not a single data point that shows a 2398 or 2400 sf home in all of Canterbury that sold in the past 3 years.

In fact the VERY HIGHEST PRICE that the small model in Canterbury sold for was the two MOST RECENT SALES of 2007!

Look as I said, it is very easy to pick data out and give a side of the argument that can indeed be very convincing. However if you really start looking into it, things can be not so convincing. What the heck were the buyers of the Jeffers Street home thinking when they paid 731k?

You see what I mean? This is the frustrating thing about the ride down the depreciation road. It just is not as black and white as it may seem.

Now Canterbury has had a fair share of expireds, cancelleds and withdrawns as well…

Is Carlsbad beginning to crumble as you claim? Maybe it is and maybe it is not. Personally I WOULD AGREE that things do look shaky. Yes by virtue of a simple price per square foot there is no argument. Again, it is going down.

However would you not agree that the data maybe is not as rock solid as it may appear at first glance? That the admission that not one single floorplan of this type has even sold in the past 3 years may indeed be a factor that shouldn’t be ignored?

Again… don’t confuse this post with me being bullish or anything like that. Really, I am far from it… Take it as maybe a devils advocate or something of that nature.

[SD Realtor]

I am not trying to prop up the market. Just trying to pose another view of the data.

Merwin is a 2368 sf home in the Canterbury subdivision. It is currently priced at 679-719k.

Here is all of the MLS activity for SOLDS in Canterbury for the past few years:

2349 Jeffers 2368 sf 731k 308/sf 7/9/07
5089 Lynch 2398 sf 690k 289/sf 9/13/07
2286 Hillyer 3038 sf 795k 261/sf 5/31/07
2383 Merwin 2810 sf 755k 268/sf 5/22/06
2353 Jeffers 2620 sf 835k 318/sf 9/29/06
5103 Frost 2620 sf 812k 312/sf 9/12/05
5082 Lynch 2810 sf 860k 306/sf 3/17/05
5110 Lynch 2810 sf 845k 300/sf 6/27/05
5077 Lynch 3038 sf 801k 263/sf 2/28/05
2353 Jeffers 2620 sf 830k 316/sf 7/6/04
5082 Lynch 2810 sf 834k 296/sf 4/5/04
2364 Merwin 2400 sf 653k 272/sf 1/28/04
2375 Merwin 2400 sf 650k 270/sf 11/14/03
2360 Merwin 2620 sf 630k 240/sf 9/25/03
5095 Frost 2368 sf 620k 261/sf 12/12/03
5072 Ciardi 2222 sf 609k 274/sf 8/14/03

Okay so just a few points…

I would not characterize this area in the same league as Carmel Valley, La Costa Valley, 4S… etc… I am not saying anything is wrong with this area. I am saying that at least for buyers I have active searches for who have given me strict criteria, this neighborhood is not one of them.

Another thing, in all of 2005, 2006 and most all of 2004, not a single small model (the 2398 sf) was sold. I am not debunking your data waiting for bottom, I am just trying to present it in a more comprehensive manner. So yes by pure square footage, you are correct but then again, there is not a single data point that shows a 2398 or 2400 sf home in all of Canterbury that sold in the past 3 years.

In fact the VERY HIGHEST PRICE that the small model in Canterbury sold for was the two MOST RECENT SALES of 2007!

Look as I said, it is very easy to pick data out and give a side of the argument that can indeed be very convincing. However if you really start looking into it, things can be not so convincing. What the heck were the buyers of the Jeffers Street home thinking when they paid 731k?

You see what I mean? This is the frustrating thing about the ride down the depreciation road. It just is not as black and white as it may seem.

Now Canterbury has had a fair share of expireds, cancelleds and withdrawns as well…

Is Carlsbad beginning to crumble as you claim? Maybe it is and maybe it is not. Personally I WOULD AGREE that things do look shaky. Yes by virtue of a simple price per square foot there is no argument. Again, it is going down.

However would you not agree that the data maybe is not as rock solid as it may appear at first glance? That the admission that not one single floorplan of this type has even sold in the past 3 years may indeed be a factor that shouldn’t be ignored?

Again… don’t confuse this post with me being bullish or anything like that. Really, I am far from it… Take it as maybe a devils advocate or something of that nature.

[SD Realtor]

I am not trying to prop up the market. Just trying to pose another view of the data.

Merwin is a 2368 sf home in the Canterbury subdivision. It is currently priced at 679-719k.

Here is all of the MLS activity for SOLDS in Canterbury for the past few years:

2349 Jeffers 2368 sf 731k 308/sf 7/9/07
5089 Lynch 2398 sf 690k 289/sf 9/13/07
2286 Hillyer 3038 sf 795k 261/sf 5/31/07
2383 Merwin 2810 sf 755k 268/sf 5/22/06
2353 Jeffers 2620 sf 835k 318/sf 9/29/06
5103 Frost 2620 sf 812k 312/sf 9/12/05
5082 Lynch 2810 sf 860k 306/sf 3/17/05
5110 Lynch 2810 sf 845k 300/sf 6/27/05
5077 Lynch 3038 sf 801k 263/sf 2/28/05
2353 Jeffers 2620 sf 830k 316/sf 7/6/04
5082 Lynch 2810 sf 834k 296/sf 4/5/04
2364 Merwin 2400 sf 653k 272/sf 1/28/04
2375 Merwin 2400 sf 650k 270/sf 11/14/03
2360 Merwin 2620 sf 630k 240/sf 9/25/03
5095 Frost 2368 sf 620k 261/sf 12/12/03
5072 Ciardi 2222 sf 609k 274/sf 8/14/03

Okay so just a few points…

I would not characterize this area in the same league as Carmel Valley, La Costa Valley, 4S… etc… I am not saying anything is wrong with this area. I am saying that at least for buyers I have active searches for who have given me strict criteria, this neighborhood is not one of them.

Another thing, in all of 2005, 2006 and most all of 2004, not a single small model (the 2398 sf) was sold. I am not debunking your data waiting for bottom, I am just trying to present it in a more comprehensive manner. So yes by pure square footage, you are correct but then again, there is not a single data point that shows a 2398 or 2400 sf home in all of Canterbury that sold in the past 3 years.

In fact the VERY HIGHEST PRICE that the small model in Canterbury sold for was the two MOST RECENT SALES of 2007!

Look as I said, it is very easy to pick data out and give a side of the argument that can indeed be very convincing. However if you really start looking into it, things can be not so convincing. What the heck were the buyers of the Jeffers Street home thinking when they paid 731k?

You see what I mean? This is the frustrating thing about the ride down the depreciation road. It just is not as black and white as it may seem.

Now Canterbury has had a fair share of expireds, cancelleds and withdrawns as well…

Is Carlsbad beginning to crumble as you claim? Maybe it is and maybe it is not. Personally I WOULD AGREE that things do look shaky. Yes by virtue of a simple price per square foot there is no argument. Again, it is going down.

However would you not agree that the data maybe is not as rock solid as it may appear at first glance? That the admission that not one single floorplan of this type has even sold in the past 3 years may indeed be a factor that shouldn’t be ignored?

Again… don’t confuse this post with me being bullish or anything like that. Really, I am far from it… Take it as maybe a devils advocate or something of that nature.

[SD Realtor]

I am not trying to prop up the market. Just trying to pose another view of the data.

Merwin is a 2368 sf home in the Canterbury subdivision. It is currently priced at 679-719k.

Here is all of the MLS activity for SOLDS in Canterbury for the past few years:

2349 Jeffers 2368 sf 731k 308/sf 7/9/07
5089 Lynch 2398 sf 690k 289/sf 9/13/07
2286 Hillyer 3038 sf 795k 261/sf 5/31/07
2383 Merwin 2810 sf 755k 268/sf 5/22/06
2353 Jeffers 2620 sf 835k 318/sf 9/29/06
5103 Frost 2620 sf 812k 312/sf 9/12/05
5082 Lynch 2810 sf 860k 306/sf 3/17/05
5110 Lynch 2810 sf 845k 300/sf 6/27/05
5077 Lynch 3038 sf 801k 263/sf 2/28/05
2353 Jeffers 2620 sf 830k 316/sf 7/6/04
5082 Lynch 2810 sf 834k 296/sf 4/5/04
2364 Merwin 2400 sf 653k 272/sf 1/28/04
2375 Merwin 2400 sf 650k 270/sf 11/14/03
2360 Merwin 2620 sf 630k 240/sf 9/25/03
5095 Frost 2368 sf 620k 261/sf 12/12/03
5072 Ciardi 2222 sf 609k 274/sf 8/14/03

Okay so just a few points…

I would not characterize this area in the same league as Carmel Valley, La Costa Valley, 4S… etc… I am not saying anything is wrong with this area. I am saying that at least for buyers I have active searches for who have given me strict criteria, this neighborhood is not one of them.

Another thing, in all of 2005, 2006 and most all of 2004, not a single small model (the 2398 sf) was sold. I am not debunking your data waiting for bottom, I am just trying to present it in a more comprehensive manner. So yes by pure square footage, you are correct but then again, there is not a single data point that shows a 2398 or 2400 sf home in all of Canterbury that sold in the past 3 years.

In fact the VERY HIGHEST PRICE that the small model in Canterbury sold for was the two MOST RECENT SALES of 2007!

Look as I said, it is very easy to pick data out and give a side of the argument that can indeed be very convincing. However if you really start looking into it, things can be not so convincing. What the heck were the buyers of the Jeffers Street home thinking when they paid 731k?

You see what I mean? This is the frustrating thing about the ride down the depreciation road. It just is not as black and white as it may seem.

Now Canterbury has had a fair share of expireds, cancelleds and withdrawns as well…

Is Carlsbad beginning to crumble as you claim? Maybe it is and maybe it is not. Personally I WOULD AGREE that things do look shaky. Yes by virtue of a simple price per square foot there is no argument. Again, it is going down.

However would you not agree that the data maybe is not as rock solid as it may appear at first glance? That the admission that not one single floorplan of this type has even sold in the past 3 years may indeed be a factor that shouldn’t be ignored?

Again… don’t confuse this post with me being bullish or anything like that. Really, I am far from it… Take it as maybe a devils advocate or something of that nature.

[Author]

Posts