Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out?

[Allan from Fallbrook]

I think it does have to do with trying to control the number of REOs hitting the market at once. However, at some point, the banks are not going to have a choice.

They are required to cut their losses on non- and sub-performing assets and, as most bankers will tell you, banks do not like being in the real estate business. As the number of REO properties pile up on individual balance sheets, the banks will realize that they have no choice but to bite the bullet and dump their REO portfolio.

I think there will be at least one bank that will take the lead and be the first to “fire sale” their REO portfolio and that would potentially trigger the rest.

When you look at the numbers, you are seeing tens of thousands of properties throughout the State of California that are going back to the bank. At some point, these properties will have to be unloaded by the banks. The question is when, and how, and what effect this will have on pricing.

[NotCranky]

October Housing Data
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 7, 2007 – 10:56am.
Resale prices, as measured by the size-adjusted median price, were down again last month:

[img_assist|nid=5561|title=case shiller price per sq. ft.|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=370]

“On a couple threads there has been some back and forth about what is coming in the next few months. Admitting I am in the long and painful decline camp with SD R and a few others. On the other side we have those that believe a large chunk of pricing (10% or more) is about to be taken out of the market quickly (LS2008, Rustico etc.)” June 2007

“Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.” Nov. 2007

[NotCranky]

October Housing Data
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 7, 2007 – 10:56am.
Resale prices, as measured by the size-adjusted median price, were down again last month:

[img_assist|nid=5561|title=case shiller price per sq. ft.|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=370]

“On a couple threads there has been some back and forth about what is coming in the next few months. Admitting I am in the long and painful decline camp with SD R and a few others. On the other side we have those that believe a large chunk of pricing (10% or more) is about to be taken out of the market quickly (LS2008, Rustico etc.)” June 2007

“Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.” Nov. 2007

[NotCranky]

October Housing Data
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 7, 2007 – 10:56am.
Resale prices, as measured by the size-adjusted median price, were down again last month:

[img_assist|nid=5561|title=case shiller price per sq. ft.|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=370]

“On a couple threads there has been some back and forth about what is coming in the next few months. Admitting I am in the long and painful decline camp with SD R and a few others. On the other side we have those that believe a large chunk of pricing (10% or more) is about to be taken out of the market quickly (LS2008, Rustico etc.)” June 2007

“Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.” Nov. 2007

[NotCranky]

October Housing Data
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 7, 2007 – 10:56am.
Resale prices, as measured by the size-adjusted median price, were down again last month:

[img_assist|nid=5561|title=case shiller price per sq. ft.|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=370]

“On a couple threads there has been some back and forth about what is coming in the next few months. Admitting I am in the long and painful decline camp with SD R and a few others. On the other side we have those that believe a large chunk of pricing (10% or more) is about to be taken out of the market quickly (LS2008, Rustico etc.)” June 2007

“Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.” Nov. 2007

[NotCranky]

October Housing Data
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 7, 2007 – 10:56am.
Resale prices, as measured by the size-adjusted median price, were down again last month:

[img_assist|nid=5561|title=case shiller price per sq. ft.|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=370]

“On a couple threads there has been some back and forth about what is coming in the next few months. Admitting I am in the long and painful decline camp with SD R and a few others. On the other side we have those that believe a large chunk of pricing (10% or more) is about to be taken out of the market quickly (LS2008, Rustico etc.)” June 2007

“Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.” Nov. 2007

[sdrealtor]

My biggest difficulty in seeing a BIG CHUNK was understanding how it could happen administratively in the real world. The credit crunch happened very suddenly and while it is not surprising it’s arrival came a bit abruptly.

It has definitely sent shock waves through the market but we are all still here and it is still now. The market continues to adjust slowly. Prices are still creeping down slowly.

[sdrealtor]

My biggest difficulty in seeing a BIG CHUNK was understanding how it could happen administratively in the real world. The credit crunch happened very suddenly and while it is not surprising it’s arrival came a bit abruptly.

It has definitely sent shock waves through the market but we are all still here and it is still now. The market continues to adjust slowly. Prices are still creeping down slowly.

[sdrealtor]

My biggest difficulty in seeing a BIG CHUNK was understanding how it could happen administratively in the real world. The credit crunch happened very suddenly and while it is not surprising it’s arrival came a bit abruptly.

It has definitely sent shock waves through the market but we are all still here and it is still now. The market continues to adjust slowly. Prices are still creeping down slowly.

[sdrealtor]

My biggest difficulty in seeing a BIG CHUNK was understanding how it could happen administratively in the real world. The credit crunch happened very suddenly and while it is not surprising it’s arrival came a bit abruptly.

It has definitely sent shock waves through the market but we are all still here and it is still now. The market continues to adjust slowly. Prices are still creeping down slowly.

[sdrealtor]

My biggest difficulty in seeing a BIG CHUNK was understanding how it could happen administratively in the real world. The credit crunch happened very suddenly and while it is not surprising it’s arrival came a bit abruptly.

It has definitely sent shock waves through the market but we are all still here and it is still now. The market continues to adjust slowly. Prices are still creeping down slowly.

[NotCranky]

“The market continues to adjust slowly. Prices are still creeping down slowly.”

Yes I am certain of that. Next week we should see really slow declines and 5 out of the next 7 days after that will be slow. Nothing to see here…move along. Obviously, I see the bias thing differently than you and SDR see it. I think patiently said something about rear view mirrors. It is slow until proven otherwise, then it is slow again.

My prediction: More of the same and on a broader scale. I am
still hoping for that “DEAD CAT BOUNCE” everyone talks about though.I am almost getting ready to predict it for March 13th through the 27th, 2008, but I think I will try to give the impression that it might last for a few years, by which time the correction might be over.

[NotCranky]

“The market continues to adjust slowly. Prices are still creeping down slowly.”

Yes I am certain of that. Next week we should see really slow declines and 5 out of the next 7 days after that will be slow. Nothing to see here…move along. Obviously, I see the bias thing differently than you and SDR see it. I think patiently said something about rear view mirrors. It is slow until proven otherwise, then it is slow again.

My prediction: More of the same and on a broader scale. I am
still hoping for that “DEAD CAT BOUNCE” everyone talks about though.I am almost getting ready to predict it for March 13th through the 27th, 2008, but I think I will try to give the impression that it might last for a few years, by which time the correction might be over.

[NotCranky]

“The market continues to adjust slowly. Prices are still creeping down slowly.”

Yes I am certain of that. Next week we should see really slow declines and 5 out of the next 7 days after that will be slow. Nothing to see here…move along. Obviously, I see the bias thing differently than you and SDR see it. I think patiently said something about rear view mirrors. It is slow until proven otherwise, then it is slow again.

My prediction: More of the same and on a broader scale. I am
still hoping for that “DEAD CAT BOUNCE” everyone talks about though.I am almost getting ready to predict it for March 13th through the 27th, 2008, but I think I will try to give the impression that it might last for a few years, by which time the correction might be over.

[NotCranky]

“The market continues to adjust slowly. Prices are still creeping down slowly.”

Yes I am certain of that. Next week we should see really slow declines and 5 out of the next 7 days after that will be slow. Nothing to see here…move along. Obviously, I see the bias thing differently than you and SDR see it. I think patiently said something about rear view mirrors. It is slow until proven otherwise, then it is slow again.

My prediction: More of the same and on a broader scale. I am
still hoping for that “DEAD CAT BOUNCE” everyone talks about though.I am almost getting ready to predict it for March 13th through the 27th, 2008, but I think I will try to give the impression that it might last for a few years, by which time the correction might be over.

[Author]

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