Question for all of the Nostradamus’s on here

[Reality]

“When people were buying in 2004-2005 did people call them dumb at the time?”

I did. They were.

People buying today, same thing.

[SD Realtor]

Alex what do you want from the board? It is a website blog with alot of differing opinions. Nobody is going to hold back. My own analysis may be dead wrong but I don’t see a quick bottom for a ton of reasons. Nobody is holding you hostage so buy a home if you want to buy a home. It is very likely that I myself will end up buying long before I want to buy but that is the way life goes. It still will not change a rationale study of how long it takes real estate cycles to occur. Why is it hard to fathom we are in uncharted waters? We have never had this much overextension from recent homeowners so it seems prudent to err on the side for a longer unwinding then the previous 6 year cycles.

Wouldn’t you think that to be the case?

I cannot wait until 2012 either. However that will not make me change the way I look at the problem. I cannot formulate a solution to fit my personal life. I think it is peculiar that you hammer the board because it doesn’t fit yours.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Alex what do you want from the board? It is a website blog with alot of differing opinions. Nobody is going to hold back. My own analysis may be dead wrong but I don’t see a quick bottom for a ton of reasons. Nobody is holding you hostage so buy a home if you want to buy a home. It is very likely that I myself will end up buying long before I want to buy but that is the way life goes. It still will not change a rationale study of how long it takes real estate cycles to occur. Why is it hard to fathom we are in uncharted waters? We have never had this much overextension from recent homeowners so it seems prudent to err on the side for a longer unwinding then the previous 6 year cycles.

Wouldn’t you think that to be the case?

I cannot wait until 2012 either. However that will not make me change the way I look at the problem. I cannot formulate a solution to fit my personal life. I think it is peculiar that you hammer the board because it doesn’t fit yours.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Alex what do you want from the board? It is a website blog with alot of differing opinions. Nobody is going to hold back. My own analysis may be dead wrong but I don’t see a quick bottom for a ton of reasons. Nobody is holding you hostage so buy a home if you want to buy a home. It is very likely that I myself will end up buying long before I want to buy but that is the way life goes. It still will not change a rationale study of how long it takes real estate cycles to occur. Why is it hard to fathom we are in uncharted waters? We have never had this much overextension from recent homeowners so it seems prudent to err on the side for a longer unwinding then the previous 6 year cycles.

Wouldn’t you think that to be the case?

I cannot wait until 2012 either. However that will not make me change the way I look at the problem. I cannot formulate a solution to fit my personal life. I think it is peculiar that you hammer the board because it doesn’t fit yours.

SD Realtor

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

“When people were buying in 2004-2005 did people call them dumb at the time?”

I did, too. Yes, sir, indeeedee. They were dumb.

Like Ex-SD, we sold in 2005.
Like Ex-SD, we moved away from San Diego.
Like EX-SD, we have a son in San Diego.

We bought a huge brand new house in green, rain-soaked Central Texas. At $70 per-sqft. Cash.

Hey Ex-SD, are we long lost twins? Dopelgangers (sp)?

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

“When people were buying in 2004-2005 did people call them dumb at the time?”

I did, too. Yes, sir, indeeedee. They were dumb.

Like Ex-SD, we sold in 2005.
Like Ex-SD, we moved away from San Diego.
Like EX-SD, we have a son in San Diego.

We bought a huge brand new house in green, rain-soaked Central Texas. At $70 per-sqft. Cash.

Hey Ex-SD, are we long lost twins? Dopelgangers (sp)?

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

“When people were buying in 2004-2005 did people call them dumb at the time?”

I did, too. Yes, sir, indeeedee. They were dumb.

Like Ex-SD, we sold in 2005.
Like Ex-SD, we moved away from San Diego.
Like EX-SD, we have a son in San Diego.

We bought a huge brand new house in green, rain-soaked Central Texas. At $70 per-sqft. Cash.

Hey Ex-SD, are we long lost twins? Dopelgangers (sp)?

[lendingbubblecontinues]

I predict that Alex_angel won’t be back until at least 8/16/07.

Nostradumbass

[lendingbubblecontinues]

I predict that Alex_angel won’t be back until at least 8/16/07.

Nostradumbass

[lendingbubblecontinues]

I predict that Alex_angel won’t be back until at least 8/16/07.

Nostradumbass

[garysears]

Ah yes, the old “life is better when you are a homedebtor” argument.

Believe it or not I actually recently wondered if I might “miss” this correction for lack of down payment cash. How stupid does that sound?

Now that I think about it, the complete lack of savings and down payment required for real loans virtually guarantees a prolonged decline. People who want to own are going to have to get frugal again and save. No way around it. I’m pretty sure I can outfrugal the masses so I don’t have anything to worry about.

I’m guessing there aren’t enough responsible buyers on the sidelines to make a big difference to the upside for many years to come, especially staring down the barrel of double digit interest rates. People are going to get real demotivated about real estate.

Rent now before you’re wiped out forever!

[garysears]

Ah yes, the old “life is better when you are a homedebtor” argument.

Believe it or not I actually recently wondered if I might “miss” this correction for lack of down payment cash. How stupid does that sound?

Now that I think about it, the complete lack of savings and down payment required for real loans virtually guarantees a prolonged decline. People who want to own are going to have to get frugal again and save. No way around it. I’m pretty sure I can outfrugal the masses so I don’t have anything to worry about.

I’m guessing there aren’t enough responsible buyers on the sidelines to make a big difference to the upside for many years to come, especially staring down the barrel of double digit interest rates. People are going to get real demotivated about real estate.

Rent now before you’re wiped out forever!

[garysears]

Ah yes, the old “life is better when you are a homedebtor” argument.

Believe it or not I actually recently wondered if I might “miss” this correction for lack of down payment cash. How stupid does that sound?

Now that I think about it, the complete lack of savings and down payment required for real loans virtually guarantees a prolonged decline. People who want to own are going to have to get frugal again and save. No way around it. I’m pretty sure I can outfrugal the masses so I don’t have anything to worry about.

I’m guessing there aren’t enough responsible buyers on the sidelines to make a big difference to the upside for many years to come, especially staring down the barrel of double digit interest rates. People are going to get real demotivated about real estate.

Rent now before you’re wiped out forever!

[Ricechex]

Alex, it doesn’t take a brain surgeon (and I can guarantee you I am not one!) to figure out that the housing market is dropping and continues to do so. I am not nearly as financially savvy as the rest of these posters, and I suspect my income is quite meager compared to the rest of these guys.

However, I started to watch the market, and check housing prices constantly beginning in 1996. Because I have difficulty making decisions and taking risks with money, it was not until 2001 that I finally bought a small house in the hood, cause that is all I could afford with a 30 year fixed mortgage. It was obvious that there was a frenzy going down. I bought the house so I would have a place for myself and my dog, and I saw rents skyrocketings and people getting booted for condo conversions. This was happenning at an unprecedented pace.

So, all these years, I continue to watch the market. Just search the MLS listings on sdlookup.com, and you will see….many of these homes were bought in 2004-2005 and the listing price is considerably less than the sales price of those years. Furthermore, I see PLENTY of short sales, and prior to these last 6 months, I was unfamiliar with the term. (Now I know what it means)

That suggests that there is trouble in paradise. I see houses in my neighborhood taking months to a year to sell, and that was not what I have been seeing in the last 5 years.

And, yes I thought people were totally stupid buying on those crazy “creative” mortgages these last couple of years. What were they thinking? Didn’t they want to know the terms? How could they think they would be able to pay when their ARMs reset? Were they expecting to inherit a windfall of cash or win the lottery? Didn’t their parents teach them common sense? Not the sharpest tools in the shed.

If I recall correctly, I remember first hearing about the interest only mortgages in 2003-2004, which makes sense now, as it is 3 years in, and the ARMs are re-setting, and guess what, they cannot pay. Thus, the short sales, foreclosures. Since those ARMs continued into late 2006, that brings us to 2009 for the rest of them to go under.

Have some lunch downtown. See all the empty condos. See the for rent signs. Something is awry. The news is mostly bogus, I pay little attention to it….just LOOK AROUND. The market is crashing.

If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, then it is a duck.

[Ricechex]

Alex, it doesn’t take a brain surgeon (and I can guarantee you I am not one!) to figure out that the housing market is dropping and continues to do so. I am not nearly as financially savvy as the rest of these posters, and I suspect my income is quite meager compared to the rest of these guys.

However, I started to watch the market, and check housing prices constantly beginning in 1996. Because I have difficulty making decisions and taking risks with money, it was not until 2001 that I finally bought a small house in the hood, cause that is all I could afford with a 30 year fixed mortgage. It was obvious that there was a frenzy going down. I bought the house so I would have a place for myself and my dog, and I saw rents skyrocketings and people getting booted for condo conversions. This was happenning at an unprecedented pace.

So, all these years, I continue to watch the market. Just search the MLS listings on sdlookup.com, and you will see….many of these homes were bought in 2004-2005 and the listing price is considerably less than the sales price of those years. Furthermore, I see PLENTY of short sales, and prior to these last 6 months, I was unfamiliar with the term. (Now I know what it means)

That suggests that there is trouble in paradise. I see houses in my neighborhood taking months to a year to sell, and that was not what I have been seeing in the last 5 years.

And, yes I thought people were totally stupid buying on those crazy “creative” mortgages these last couple of years. What were they thinking? Didn’t they want to know the terms? How could they think they would be able to pay when their ARMs reset? Were they expecting to inherit a windfall of cash or win the lottery? Didn’t their parents teach them common sense? Not the sharpest tools in the shed.

If I recall correctly, I remember first hearing about the interest only mortgages in 2003-2004, which makes sense now, as it is 3 years in, and the ARMs are re-setting, and guess what, they cannot pay. Thus, the short sales, foreclosures. Since those ARMs continued into late 2006, that brings us to 2009 for the rest of them to go under.

Have some lunch downtown. See all the empty condos. See the for rent signs. Something is awry. The news is mostly bogus, I pay little attention to it….just LOOK AROUND. The market is crashing.

If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, then it is a duck.

[Author]

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