Question for all of the Nostradamus’s on here

[rocket science]

After seeing Alex’s Graph I couldn’t resist.
BTW, love the log scale to minimize the effect.

First let me admit that I do not know the pedigree of the housing data in the graph but believe it to be accurate as it came from a spreadsheet that I downloaded a while back in May of 2007 from a link from a previous thread.(as best I can remember). THe ‘Alex” data is a few points eyeballed off of his graph and approximated in between but gets the basic shape.

That said, just put together a quick picture of the data and some curves assuming 6.2% (that appears to be what Alex used) and even a generous 5% growth in value and then a 4% growth rate. The anchor point for the ‘growth’ data is the first available point I picked off of the ‘Alex’ data.

Some observations, not to be taken as fact:
Although I think 5% is generous it is curious that it basically intersects the bottom of the last correction in the mid 90s.

So if one were to ASSUME the 5% growth rate is what houses should expect to appreciate over a long period of time, the prices should decrease approximately the following amounts for the “bottom” to occur in the following years.

2008 48%
2009 45%
2010 43%
2011 40%
2012 37%
2013 34%

And if the “growth” is at ~5.5% it matches the 2017 prediction in one of his “A Bubble Primer” post on when per capita income divided by the median-priced home meets the historical average based on prices remaining constant and income increases at an annual rate of 4.6%

Again, just observations but it looks like the fall may be with us a while.
rs

[rocket science]

Had trouble with the graph.
[img_assist|nid=4336|title=Housing Data|desc=Had trouble with the graph|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=350]
rs

[rocket science]

Had trouble with the graph.
[img_assist|nid=4336|title=Housing Data|desc=Had trouble with the graph|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=350]
rs

[rocket science]

Had trouble with the graph.
[img_assist|nid=4336|title=Housing Data|desc=Had trouble with the graph|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=350]
rs

[falcon_eyes]

I agree with Diego Mamani analysis … it doesn’t make sense that the true happiness of living a life to its fullest can ONLY be accomplished by having a home and raised a family. Well, if my family is having a wealthy fortune, then i have no issue with my financial problems. I don’t even care with average middle income families since I have my own butler.

First of all, people has to live within their means …. don’t stretch their lifestyle by buying into homes at outrageous prices. If you can not afford to buy the home, then don’t buy … wait on the sideline as a renter for now while saving the money when you’re ready.

My vote: Alex_angel is a real estate spy, he’s listening to these forums trying to gauge the BEARISH home market barometer. Flash news to you, the BEAR has beaten down the BULL in this housing market … not done yet but it’s getting close to declare our BEAR VICTORY. My suggestion to Alex_angel, you should switch your current job to become a foreclosure real estate agent. That’s where the current activity now if you still want to stick around in the property market.

[falcon_eyes]

I agree with Diego Mamani analysis … it doesn’t make sense that the true happiness of living a life to its fullest can ONLY be accomplished by having a home and raised a family. Well, if my family is having a wealthy fortune, then i have no issue with my financial problems. I don’t even care with average middle income families since I have my own butler.

First of all, people has to live within their means …. don’t stretch their lifestyle by buying into homes at outrageous prices. If you can not afford to buy the home, then don’t buy … wait on the sideline as a renter for now while saving the money when you’re ready.

My vote: Alex_angel is a real estate spy, he’s listening to these forums trying to gauge the BEARISH home market barometer. Flash news to you, the BEAR has beaten down the BULL in this housing market … not done yet but it’s getting close to declare our BEAR VICTORY. My suggestion to Alex_angel, you should switch your current job to become a foreclosure real estate agent. That’s where the current activity now if you still want to stick around in the property market.

[falcon_eyes]

I agree with Diego Mamani analysis … it doesn’t make sense that the true happiness of living a life to its fullest can ONLY be accomplished by having a home and raised a family. Well, if my family is having a wealthy fortune, then i have no issue with my financial problems. I don’t even care with average middle income families since I have my own butler.

First of all, people has to live within their means …. don’t stretch their lifestyle by buying into homes at outrageous prices. If you can not afford to buy the home, then don’t buy … wait on the sideline as a renter for now while saving the money when you’re ready.

My vote: Alex_angel is a real estate spy, he’s listening to these forums trying to gauge the BEARISH home market barometer. Flash news to you, the BEAR has beaten down the BULL in this housing market … not done yet but it’s getting close to declare our BEAR VICTORY. My suggestion to Alex_angel, you should switch your current job to become a foreclosure real estate agent. That’s where the current activity now if you still want to stick around in the property market.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Very nice, rocket science. Based on Alex Data alone, Alex will also stay young and live forever. He will never ever pass away. San Diego will turn to Nirvana for his perpetual lifespan. (Sarcasm off)

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Very nice, rocket science. Based on Alex Data alone, Alex will also stay young and live forever. He will never ever pass away. San Diego will turn to Nirvana for his perpetual lifespan. (Sarcasm off)

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Very nice, rocket science. Based on Alex Data alone, Alex will also stay young and live forever. He will never ever pass away. San Diego will turn to Nirvana for his perpetual lifespan. (Sarcasm off)

[PerryChase]

Diego, people make predictions all the time — housing will rise 4%, Iraq will pay for itself, population will grow 2% etc…

When the preditions are not optimistic, you get all kinds of people coming out saying “don’t make predictions because you don’t know.”

I think human nature is such that we want to reject the bad news. Here’s an example:

Iraq will pay for itself = patriotic and All-American.
Thousands will get killed = defeatist and weak on terrorists.

[PerryChase]

Diego, people make predictions all the time — housing will rise 4%, Iraq will pay for itself, population will grow 2% etc…

When the preditions are not optimistic, you get all kinds of people coming out saying “don’t make predictions because you don’t know.”

I think human nature is such that we want to reject the bad news. Here’s an example:

Iraq will pay for itself = patriotic and All-American.
Thousands will get killed = defeatist and weak on terrorists.

[PerryChase]

Diego, people make predictions all the time — housing will rise 4%, Iraq will pay for itself, population will grow 2% etc…

When the preditions are not optimistic, you get all kinds of people coming out saying “don’t make predictions because you don’t know.”

I think human nature is such that we want to reject the bad news. Here’s an example:

Iraq will pay for itself = patriotic and All-American.
Thousands will get killed = defeatist and weak on terrorists.

[Reality]

“When people were buying in 2004-2005 did people call them dumb at the time?”

I did. They were.

People buying today, same thing.

[Reality]

“When people were buying in 2004-2005 did people call them dumb at the time?”

I did. They were.

People buying today, same thing.

[Author]

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