Question for all of the Nostradamus’s on here

[Stu949]

To Alex_angel:

I get this a lot, “Lots of envious people that hope bad things happens to others so they can benefit.” During many conversations with people from all walks of life, I declared in 2004 (before I was on Piggington) that the financing ponzi scheme was not sustainable in the long term.

I never hope that bad things happen to people, I just try to recognize trends and projections for what they are… Hoping things will happen will not get you far in life. People always say that I hope home prices will come down. That is the furthest thing from the truth. My analysis and research has led me believe that home prices will decline. When I first started my research, I had no emotion about housing. I didn’t make much money and buying a house wasn’t even a thought at the time. During the last three years, things have changed – I can now afford to buy a SFR, but prices are still too high. Things are what they are…hoping is for uneducated, ignorant, amateurs.

[eyePod]

Alex does indeed seem to have a split personality. Both in his attitude toward housing prices and in how he treats people. For instance, he can’t stand people making predictions and yet he seems to be argumentative about whether prices can go down very much or not. That to me seems to be an obstinate way to make a prediction. Or maybe he just wants to argue. Or maybe he is just cynical.

[eyePod]

Alex does indeed seem to have a split personality. Both in his attitude toward housing prices and in how he treats people. For instance, he can’t stand people making predictions and yet he seems to be argumentative about whether prices can go down very much or not. That to me seems to be an obstinate way to make a prediction. Or maybe he just wants to argue. Or maybe he is just cynical.

[eyePod]

Alex does indeed seem to have a split personality. Both in his attitude toward housing prices and in how he treats people. For instance, he can’t stand people making predictions and yet he seems to be argumentative about whether prices can go down very much or not. That to me seems to be an obstinate way to make a prediction. Or maybe he just wants to argue. Or maybe he is just cynical.

[Diego Mamani]

In think that Alex makes a good point regarding predictions: It is really silly to say that the market will bottom in 2012 – why not 2011? Or 2014? No one really knows. And the same is true for the % drop in inflation-adjusted prices from peak to trough: will it be 20% or 60%? How fast will prices drop over this period? Most of it up front in 2007-08? Or evenly over the long downturn period?

We know where the market is headed, but we just don’t know the details regarding years or exact % price drops.

That said, however, I think that Alex’s true colors come through when he made this fallacious argument that we often hear from RE industry shills:

What is someone with the money and large family going to do? Rent for 5 years until 2012? Hell no. people need to live life today and not wait for something they have no idea will ever happen.

Once I read that, I stopped taking him seriously.

[Diego Mamani]

In think that Alex makes a good point regarding predictions: It is really silly to say that the market will bottom in 2012 – why not 2011? Or 2014? No one really knows. And the same is true for the % drop in inflation-adjusted prices from peak to trough: will it be 20% or 60%? How fast will prices drop over this period? Most of it up front in 2007-08? Or evenly over the long downturn period?

We know where the market is headed, but we just don’t know the details regarding years or exact % price drops.

That said, however, I think that Alex’s true colors come through when he made this fallacious argument that we often hear from RE industry shills:

What is someone with the money and large family going to do? Rent for 5 years until 2012? Hell no. people need to live life today and not wait for something they have no idea will ever happen.

Once I read that, I stopped taking him seriously.

[Diego Mamani]

In think that Alex makes a good point regarding predictions: It is really silly to say that the market will bottom in 2012 – why not 2011? Or 2014? No one really knows. And the same is true for the % drop in inflation-adjusted prices from peak to trough: will it be 20% or 60%? How fast will prices drop over this period? Most of it up front in 2007-08? Or evenly over the long downturn period?

We know where the market is headed, but we just don’t know the details regarding years or exact % price drops.

That said, however, I think that Alex’s true colors come through when he made this fallacious argument that we often hear from RE industry shills:

What is someone with the money and large family going to do? Rent for 5 years until 2012? Hell no. people need to live life today and not wait for something they have no idea will ever happen.

Once I read that, I stopped taking him seriously.

[JWM in SD]

“When people were buying in 2004-2005 did people call them dumb at the time?”

I did…but I’m just that kind of guy…as you well know by now..looks like I was right.

[JWM in SD]

“When people were buying in 2004-2005 did people call them dumb at the time?”

I did…but I’m just that kind of guy…as you well know by now..looks like I was right.

[JWM in SD]

“When people were buying in 2004-2005 did people call them dumb at the time?”

I did…but I’m just that kind of guy…as you well know by now..looks like I was right.

[JWM in SD]

Not if they go bankrupt first AA. LMFAO…ATM fees going to save CFC from their REO portfolio..bwhahahaha….

[JWM in SD]

Not if they go bankrupt first AA. LMFAO…ATM fees going to save CFC from their REO portfolio..bwhahahaha….

[JWM in SD]

Not if they go bankrupt first AA. LMFAO…ATM fees going to save CFC from their REO portfolio..bwhahahaha….

[rocket science]

After seeing Alex’s Graph I couldn’t resist.
BTW, love the log scale to minimize the effect.

First let me admit that I do not know the pedigree of the housing data in the graph but believe it to be accurate as it came from a spreadsheet that I downloaded a while back in May of 2007 from a link from a previous thread.(as best I can remember). THe ‘Alex” data is a few points eyeballed off of his graph and approximated in between but gets the basic shape.

That said, just put together a quick picture of the data and some curves assuming 6.2% (that appears to be what Alex used) and even a generous 5% growth in value and then a 4% growth rate. The anchor point for the ‘growth’ data is the first available point I picked off of the ‘Alex’ data.

Some observations, not to be taken as fact:
Although I think 5% is generous it is curious that it basically intersects the bottom of the last correction in the mid 90s.

So if one were to ASSUME the 5% growth rate is what houses should expect to appreciate over a long period of time, the prices should decrease approximately the following amounts for the “bottom” to occur in the following years.

2008 48%
2009 45%
2010 43%
2011 40%
2012 37%
2013 34%

And if the “growth” is at ~5.5% it matches the 2017 prediction in one of his “A Bubble Primer” post on when per capita income divided by the median-priced home meets the historical average based on prices remaining constant and income increases at an annual rate of 4.6%

Again, just observations but it looks like the fall may be with us a while.
rs

[rocket science]

After seeing Alex’s Graph I couldn’t resist.
BTW, love the log scale to minimize the effect.

First let me admit that I do not know the pedigree of the housing data in the graph but believe it to be accurate as it came from a spreadsheet that I downloaded a while back in May of 2007 from a link from a previous thread.(as best I can remember). THe ‘Alex” data is a few points eyeballed off of his graph and approximated in between but gets the basic shape.

That said, just put together a quick picture of the data and some curves assuming 6.2% (that appears to be what Alex used) and even a generous 5% growth in value and then a 4% growth rate. The anchor point for the ‘growth’ data is the first available point I picked off of the ‘Alex’ data.

Some observations, not to be taken as fact:
Although I think 5% is generous it is curious that it basically intersects the bottom of the last correction in the mid 90s.

So if one were to ASSUME the 5% growth rate is what houses should expect to appreciate over a long period of time, the prices should decrease approximately the following amounts for the “bottom” to occur in the following years.

2008 48%
2009 45%
2010 43%
2011 40%
2012 37%
2013 34%

And if the “growth” is at ~5.5% it matches the 2017 prediction in one of his “A Bubble Primer” post on when per capita income divided by the median-priced home meets the historical average based on prices remaining constant and income increases at an annual rate of 4.6%

Again, just observations but it looks like the fall may be with us a while.
rs

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