OT: McCain Victory No Longer Unikely

[afx114]

P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

[Enorah]

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/11/final-usa-today.html

Final USA TODAY/Gallup estimate: Obama, 53%; McCain, 42%

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by 11 percentage points in the last USA TODAY/Gallup national poll of likely voters before Election Day.

With less than two days to go before polls open, the contenders’ support is estimated to be:

• Obama, 53%.
• McCain, 42%.

Those numbers, released this hour, are based on national surveys of 2,472 likely voters. The interviews were conducted by telephone on Friday, Saturday and today. The margin of error on each figure is +/- 2 percentage points.

Gallup says the group it surveyed is mostly made up of voters who fit its “traditional” model of those likely to show up at the polls. Also among the 2,472 are some who have already voted — including first-timers.

The results are identical to Gallup’s “expanded” pool of likely voters, which adds more first-time voters than the survey firm used in the past.

One other set of numbers to consider: Gallup says that when it allocates the 4% of likely voters who either had no opinion or would not choose between Obama and McCain, it estimates the candidates’ current support levels would most likely be 55% for Obama, 44% for McCain.

Watch USATODAY.com for more about the poll later this evening, and read more about it in tomorrow’s USA TODAY.

And, as always, remember that polls are snapshots of current public opinion and that things can change — even in the space of less than two days.

Update at 8:50 p.m. ET. USA TODAY’s Washington bureau chief, Susan Page, adds that:

McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate doesn’t appear to be wearing well with most Americans. In the poll, 45% of registered voters rated the choice as “poor” and another 18% said it was “only fair,” while 19% called it “pretty good” and 16% excellent.

Those are much more negative ratings than in a USA TODAY survey taken just after the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. Then, 60% called the pick of Palin excellent or good; 38% said it was “only fair” or poor.

In contrast, assessments of Barack Obama’s choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remain positive. Now, 60% call Obama’s choice excellent or “pretty good,” while 38% say it was “only fair” or poor. In early September, the divide was 63%-33%.

Biden has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 53%-32%. Palin has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 42%-49%.

One more historic tidbit from the survey: Obama’s favorable rating is 62% — the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup’s final pre-election polls going back to 1992.

[Enorah]

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/11/final-usa-today.html

Final USA TODAY/Gallup estimate: Obama, 53%; McCain, 42%

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by 11 percentage points in the last USA TODAY/Gallup national poll of likely voters before Election Day.

With less than two days to go before polls open, the contenders’ support is estimated to be:

• Obama, 53%.
• McCain, 42%.

Those numbers, released this hour, are based on national surveys of 2,472 likely voters. The interviews were conducted by telephone on Friday, Saturday and today. The margin of error on each figure is +/- 2 percentage points.

Gallup says the group it surveyed is mostly made up of voters who fit its “traditional” model of those likely to show up at the polls. Also among the 2,472 are some who have already voted — including first-timers.

The results are identical to Gallup’s “expanded” pool of likely voters, which adds more first-time voters than the survey firm used in the past.

One other set of numbers to consider: Gallup says that when it allocates the 4% of likely voters who either had no opinion or would not choose between Obama and McCain, it estimates the candidates’ current support levels would most likely be 55% for Obama, 44% for McCain.

Watch USATODAY.com for more about the poll later this evening, and read more about it in tomorrow’s USA TODAY.

And, as always, remember that polls are snapshots of current public opinion and that things can change — even in the space of less than two days.

Update at 8:50 p.m. ET. USA TODAY’s Washington bureau chief, Susan Page, adds that:

McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate doesn’t appear to be wearing well with most Americans. In the poll, 45% of registered voters rated the choice as “poor” and another 18% said it was “only fair,” while 19% called it “pretty good” and 16% excellent.

Those are much more negative ratings than in a USA TODAY survey taken just after the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. Then, 60% called the pick of Palin excellent or good; 38% said it was “only fair” or poor.

In contrast, assessments of Barack Obama’s choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remain positive. Now, 60% call Obama’s choice excellent or “pretty good,” while 38% say it was “only fair” or poor. In early September, the divide was 63%-33%.

Biden has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 53%-32%. Palin has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 42%-49%.

One more historic tidbit from the survey: Obama’s favorable rating is 62% — the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup’s final pre-election polls going back to 1992.

[Enorah]

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/11/final-usa-today.html

Final USA TODAY/Gallup estimate: Obama, 53%; McCain, 42%

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by 11 percentage points in the last USA TODAY/Gallup national poll of likely voters before Election Day.

With less than two days to go before polls open, the contenders’ support is estimated to be:

• Obama, 53%.
• McCain, 42%.

Those numbers, released this hour, are based on national surveys of 2,472 likely voters. The interviews were conducted by telephone on Friday, Saturday and today. The margin of error on each figure is +/- 2 percentage points.

Gallup says the group it surveyed is mostly made up of voters who fit its “traditional” model of those likely to show up at the polls. Also among the 2,472 are some who have already voted — including first-timers.

The results are identical to Gallup’s “expanded” pool of likely voters, which adds more first-time voters than the survey firm used in the past.

One other set of numbers to consider: Gallup says that when it allocates the 4% of likely voters who either had no opinion or would not choose between Obama and McCain, it estimates the candidates’ current support levels would most likely be 55% for Obama, 44% for McCain.

Watch USATODAY.com for more about the poll later this evening, and read more about it in tomorrow’s USA TODAY.

And, as always, remember that polls are snapshots of current public opinion and that things can change — even in the space of less than two days.

Update at 8:50 p.m. ET. USA TODAY’s Washington bureau chief, Susan Page, adds that:

McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate doesn’t appear to be wearing well with most Americans. In the poll, 45% of registered voters rated the choice as “poor” and another 18% said it was “only fair,” while 19% called it “pretty good” and 16% excellent.

Those are much more negative ratings than in a USA TODAY survey taken just after the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. Then, 60% called the pick of Palin excellent or good; 38% said it was “only fair” or poor.

In contrast, assessments of Barack Obama’s choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remain positive. Now, 60% call Obama’s choice excellent or “pretty good,” while 38% say it was “only fair” or poor. In early September, the divide was 63%-33%.

Biden has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 53%-32%. Palin has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 42%-49%.

One more historic tidbit from the survey: Obama’s favorable rating is 62% — the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup’s final pre-election polls going back to 1992.

[Enorah]

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/11/final-usa-today.html

Final USA TODAY/Gallup estimate: Obama, 53%; McCain, 42%

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by 11 percentage points in the last USA TODAY/Gallup national poll of likely voters before Election Day.

With less than two days to go before polls open, the contenders’ support is estimated to be:

• Obama, 53%.
• McCain, 42%.

Those numbers, released this hour, are based on national surveys of 2,472 likely voters. The interviews were conducted by telephone on Friday, Saturday and today. The margin of error on each figure is +/- 2 percentage points.

Gallup says the group it surveyed is mostly made up of voters who fit its “traditional” model of those likely to show up at the polls. Also among the 2,472 are some who have already voted — including first-timers.

The results are identical to Gallup’s “expanded” pool of likely voters, which adds more first-time voters than the survey firm used in the past.

One other set of numbers to consider: Gallup says that when it allocates the 4% of likely voters who either had no opinion or would not choose between Obama and McCain, it estimates the candidates’ current support levels would most likely be 55% for Obama, 44% for McCain.

Watch USATODAY.com for more about the poll later this evening, and read more about it in tomorrow’s USA TODAY.

And, as always, remember that polls are snapshots of current public opinion and that things can change — even in the space of less than two days.

Update at 8:50 p.m. ET. USA TODAY’s Washington bureau chief, Susan Page, adds that:

McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate doesn’t appear to be wearing well with most Americans. In the poll, 45% of registered voters rated the choice as “poor” and another 18% said it was “only fair,” while 19% called it “pretty good” and 16% excellent.

Those are much more negative ratings than in a USA TODAY survey taken just after the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. Then, 60% called the pick of Palin excellent or good; 38% said it was “only fair” or poor.

In contrast, assessments of Barack Obama’s choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remain positive. Now, 60% call Obama’s choice excellent or “pretty good,” while 38% say it was “only fair” or poor. In early September, the divide was 63%-33%.

Biden has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 53%-32%. Palin has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 42%-49%.

One more historic tidbit from the survey: Obama’s favorable rating is 62% — the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup’s final pre-election polls going back to 1992.

[Enorah]

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/11/final-usa-today.html

Final USA TODAY/Gallup estimate: Obama, 53%; McCain, 42%

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by 11 percentage points in the last USA TODAY/Gallup national poll of likely voters before Election Day.

With less than two days to go before polls open, the contenders’ support is estimated to be:

• Obama, 53%.
• McCain, 42%.

Those numbers, released this hour, are based on national surveys of 2,472 likely voters. The interviews were conducted by telephone on Friday, Saturday and today. The margin of error on each figure is +/- 2 percentage points.

Gallup says the group it surveyed is mostly made up of voters who fit its “traditional” model of those likely to show up at the polls. Also among the 2,472 are some who have already voted — including first-timers.

The results are identical to Gallup’s “expanded” pool of likely voters, which adds more first-time voters than the survey firm used in the past.

One other set of numbers to consider: Gallup says that when it allocates the 4% of likely voters who either had no opinion or would not choose between Obama and McCain, it estimates the candidates’ current support levels would most likely be 55% for Obama, 44% for McCain.

Watch USATODAY.com for more about the poll later this evening, and read more about it in tomorrow’s USA TODAY.

And, as always, remember that polls are snapshots of current public opinion and that things can change — even in the space of less than two days.

Update at 8:50 p.m. ET. USA TODAY’s Washington bureau chief, Susan Page, adds that:

McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate doesn’t appear to be wearing well with most Americans. In the poll, 45% of registered voters rated the choice as “poor” and another 18% said it was “only fair,” while 19% called it “pretty good” and 16% excellent.

Those are much more negative ratings than in a USA TODAY survey taken just after the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. Then, 60% called the pick of Palin excellent or good; 38% said it was “only fair” or poor.

In contrast, assessments of Barack Obama’s choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remain positive. Now, 60% call Obama’s choice excellent or “pretty good,” while 38% say it was “only fair” or poor. In early September, the divide was 63%-33%.

Biden has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 53%-32%. Palin has a favorable-unfavorable rating of 42%-49%.

One more historic tidbit from the survey: Obama’s favorable rating is 62% — the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup’s final pre-election polls going back to 1992.

[partypup]

[quote=afx114]P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

[/quote]

McCain will get these states, based on the trends that seems to be accelerating.

And I disagree with this map. MCain doesn’t need VA or CO in order to get to 273.

However, NV, NC, OH FL and PA are critical to a McCain win.

I believe NC, OH and FL are safe (by a small margin) for McCain.

The wild cards are NV and PA. There is no guarantee whatsoever that he will get these states.

Tomorrow will tell us a lot more about where (if anywhere) this trend is heading.

All I intended to point out in this post is that this election is not a slam dunk for Obama. If he wins, I suspect it will be by the narrow margin by which Bush has won the last 2 elections.

[partypup]

[quote=afx114]P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

[/quote]

McCain will get these states, based on the trends that seems to be accelerating.

And I disagree with this map. MCain doesn’t need VA or CO in order to get to 273.

However, NV, NC, OH FL and PA are critical to a McCain win.

I believe NC, OH and FL are safe (by a small margin) for McCain.

The wild cards are NV and PA. There is no guarantee whatsoever that he will get these states.

Tomorrow will tell us a lot more about where (if anywhere) this trend is heading.

All I intended to point out in this post is that this election is not a slam dunk for Obama. If he wins, I suspect it will be by the narrow margin by which Bush has won the last 2 elections.

[partypup]

[quote=afx114]P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

[/quote]

McCain will get these states, based on the trends that seems to be accelerating.

And I disagree with this map. MCain doesn’t need VA or CO in order to get to 273.

However, NV, NC, OH FL and PA are critical to a McCain win.

I believe NC, OH and FL are safe (by a small margin) for McCain.

The wild cards are NV and PA. There is no guarantee whatsoever that he will get these states.

Tomorrow will tell us a lot more about where (if anywhere) this trend is heading.

All I intended to point out in this post is that this election is not a slam dunk for Obama. If he wins, I suspect it will be by the narrow margin by which Bush has won the last 2 elections.

[partypup]

[quote=afx114]P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

[/quote]

McCain will get these states, based on the trends that seems to be accelerating.

And I disagree with this map. MCain doesn’t need VA or CO in order to get to 273.

However, NV, NC, OH FL and PA are critical to a McCain win.

I believe NC, OH and FL are safe (by a small margin) for McCain.

The wild cards are NV and PA. There is no guarantee whatsoever that he will get these states.

Tomorrow will tell us a lot more about where (if anywhere) this trend is heading.

All I intended to point out in this post is that this election is not a slam dunk for Obama. If he wins, I suspect it will be by the narrow margin by which Bush has won the last 2 elections.

[partypup]

[quote=afx114]P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

[/quote]

McCain will get these states, based on the trends that seems to be accelerating.

And I disagree with this map. MCain doesn’t need VA or CO in order to get to 273.

However, NV, NC, OH FL and PA are critical to a McCain win.

I believe NC, OH and FL are safe (by a small margin) for McCain.

The wild cards are NV and PA. There is no guarantee whatsoever that he will get these states.

Tomorrow will tell us a lot more about where (if anywhere) this trend is heading.

All I intended to point out in this post is that this election is not a slam dunk for Obama. If he wins, I suspect it will be by the narrow margin by which Bush has won the last 2 elections.

[cr]

Good write up partypup, but what you’re saying means the media is biased towards Obama, is not accurately or fairly representing both sides, and not picking which stories they cover or ignore.

That’s just crazy.

/sarcasm

[cr]

Good write up partypup, but what you’re saying means the media is biased towards Obama, is not accurately or fairly representing both sides, and not picking which stories they cover or ignore.

That’s just crazy.

/sarcasm

[cr]

Good write up partypup, but what you’re saying means the media is biased towards Obama, is not accurately or fairly representing both sides, and not picking which stories they cover or ignore.

That’s just crazy.

/sarcasm

[cr]

Good write up partypup, but what you’re saying means the media is biased towards Obama, is not accurately or fairly representing both sides, and not picking which stories they cover or ignore.

That’s just crazy.

/sarcasm

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