OT: McCain Victory No Longer Unikely

[partypup]

I don’t need the luck. I don’t bet on anything that can be fixed, including the stock market.

In any event, the gamblers at inTrade are simply looking at the poll results and not their methodology.

[partypup]

More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory. Now he must rely on blacks and the other members of the traditional Dem base. Enter the PUMAs…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. Even if more young voters are registered this year, they do not appear to be any more interested in the campaign or in voting in the election than they were in 2004.

Unless turnout rates among older age groups drop substantially from what they were in 2004, young voters should represent about the same share of the electorate as in the last presidential election. And Gallup’s data suggest interest in the campaign and voting are the same or higher among older voters compared to what they were in 2004. ”

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111685/Update-Little-Evidence-Surge-Youth-Vote.aspx

[partypup]

More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory. Now he must rely on blacks and the other members of the traditional Dem base. Enter the PUMAs…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. Even if more young voters are registered this year, they do not appear to be any more interested in the campaign or in voting in the election than they were in 2004.

Unless turnout rates among older age groups drop substantially from what they were in 2004, young voters should represent about the same share of the electorate as in the last presidential election. And Gallup’s data suggest interest in the campaign and voting are the same or higher among older voters compared to what they were in 2004. ”

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111685/Update-Little-Evidence-Surge-Youth-Vote.aspx

[partypup]

More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory. Now he must rely on blacks and the other members of the traditional Dem base. Enter the PUMAs…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. Even if more young voters are registered this year, they do not appear to be any more interested in the campaign or in voting in the election than they were in 2004.

Unless turnout rates among older age groups drop substantially from what they were in 2004, young voters should represent about the same share of the electorate as in the last presidential election. And Gallup’s data suggest interest in the campaign and voting are the same or higher among older voters compared to what they were in 2004. ”

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111685/Update-Little-Evidence-Surge-Youth-Vote.aspx

[partypup]

More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory. Now he must rely on blacks and the other members of the traditional Dem base. Enter the PUMAs…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. Even if more young voters are registered this year, they do not appear to be any more interested in the campaign or in voting in the election than they were in 2004.

Unless turnout rates among older age groups drop substantially from what they were in 2004, young voters should represent about the same share of the electorate as in the last presidential election. And Gallup’s data suggest interest in the campaign and voting are the same or higher among older voters compared to what they were in 2004. ”

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111685/Update-Little-Evidence-Surge-Youth-Vote.aspx

[partypup]

More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory. Now he must rely on blacks and the other members of the traditional Dem base. Enter the PUMAs…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. Even if more young voters are registered this year, they do not appear to be any more interested in the campaign or in voting in the election than they were in 2004.

Unless turnout rates among older age groups drop substantially from what they were in 2004, young voters should represent about the same share of the electorate as in the last presidential election. And Gallup’s data suggest interest in the campaign and voting are the same or higher among older voters compared to what they were in 2004. ”

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111685/Update-Little-Evidence-Surge-Youth-Vote.aspx

[partypup]

This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[partypup]

This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[partypup]

This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[partypup]

This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[partypup]

This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[svelte]

[quote=partypup]More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. [/quote]

There are three measures of youth participation:

– Total Number of Votes
– The Turnout Rate: percentage of eligible young voters who cast a ballot.
– The Share of the Electorate: percentage of entire voting electorate.

“According to the Florida voter file, (which should be viewed as relatively but not 100% accurate) in 2004, approximately 392,888 voters between 18-35 voted early or absentee. So far 499,867 voters between 18-35 have voted early or absentee this year. This is a 27 percent increase over 2004.”

Your quote is based on the turnout rate.

My quote is based on the total number of votes.

Each, as of right now, is telling a different story. Believe the one you want to believe.

[svelte]

[quote=partypup]More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. [/quote]

There are three measures of youth participation:

– Total Number of Votes
– The Turnout Rate: percentage of eligible young voters who cast a ballot.
– The Share of the Electorate: percentage of entire voting electorate.

“According to the Florida voter file, (which should be viewed as relatively but not 100% accurate) in 2004, approximately 392,888 voters between 18-35 voted early or absentee. So far 499,867 voters between 18-35 have voted early or absentee this year. This is a 27 percent increase over 2004.”

Your quote is based on the turnout rate.

My quote is based on the total number of votes.

Each, as of right now, is telling a different story. Believe the one you want to believe.

[svelte]

[quote=partypup]More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. [/quote]

There are three measures of youth participation:

– Total Number of Votes
– The Turnout Rate: percentage of eligible young voters who cast a ballot.
– The Share of the Electorate: percentage of entire voting electorate.

“According to the Florida voter file, (which should be viewed as relatively but not 100% accurate) in 2004, approximately 392,888 voters between 18-35 voted early or absentee. So far 499,867 voters between 18-35 have voted early or absentee this year. This is a 27 percent increase over 2004.”

Your quote is based on the turnout rate.

My quote is based on the total number of votes.

Each, as of right now, is telling a different story. Believe the one you want to believe.

[svelte]

[quote=partypup]More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. [/quote]

There are three measures of youth participation:

– Total Number of Votes
– The Turnout Rate: percentage of eligible young voters who cast a ballot.
– The Share of the Electorate: percentage of entire voting electorate.

“According to the Florida voter file, (which should be viewed as relatively but not 100% accurate) in 2004, approximately 392,888 voters between 18-35 voted early or absentee. So far 499,867 voters between 18-35 have voted early or absentee this year. This is a 27 percent increase over 2004.”

Your quote is based on the turnout rate.

My quote is based on the total number of votes.

Each, as of right now, is telling a different story. Believe the one you want to believe.

[Author]

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