OT: McCain Victory No Longer Unikely

[svelte]

[quote=partypup]More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory…

“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote

While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. [/quote]

There are three measures of youth participation:

– Total Number of Votes
– The Turnout Rate: percentage of eligible young voters who cast a ballot.
– The Share of the Electorate: percentage of entire voting electorate.

“According to the Florida voter file, (which should be viewed as relatively but not 100% accurate) in 2004, approximately 392,888 voters between 18-35 voted early or absentee. So far 499,867 voters between 18-35 have voted early or absentee this year. This is a 27 percent increase over 2004.”

Your quote is based on the turnout rate.

My quote is based on the total number of votes.

Each, as of right now, is telling a different story. Believe the one you want to believe.

[svelte]

[quote=partypup]This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
[/quote]

It is a little disconcerting to watch, but the Obama camp has always said the race would tighten. In some ways it is good, since it will encourage voters from both sides to actually mosey over to the polls to cast their ballots, so the final result accurately represent the desire of the US electorate as best it can.

I’m still confident.

[svelte]

[quote=partypup]This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
[/quote]

It is a little disconcerting to watch, but the Obama camp has always said the race would tighten. In some ways it is good, since it will encourage voters from both sides to actually mosey over to the polls to cast their ballots, so the final result accurately represent the desire of the US electorate as best it can.

I’m still confident.

[svelte]

[quote=partypup]This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
[/quote]

It is a little disconcerting to watch, but the Obama camp has always said the race would tighten. In some ways it is good, since it will encourage voters from both sides to actually mosey over to the polls to cast their ballots, so the final result accurately represent the desire of the US electorate as best it can.

I’m still confident.

[svelte]

[quote=partypup]This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
[/quote]

It is a little disconcerting to watch, but the Obama camp has always said the race would tighten. In some ways it is good, since it will encourage voters from both sides to actually mosey over to the polls to cast their ballots, so the final result accurately represent the desire of the US electorate as best it can.

I’m still confident.

[svelte]

[quote=partypup]This is nothing less than fascinating, people.

RealClearPolitics has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category. If more states have now been thrown into the toss-up category this weekend, this would seem to be momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
[/quote]

It is a little disconcerting to watch, but the Obama camp has always said the race would tighten. In some ways it is good, since it will encourage voters from both sides to actually mosey over to the polls to cast their ballots, so the final result accurately represent the desire of the US electorate as best it can.

I’m still confident.

[afx114]

Not that California matters, but I just stood in line for five and a half hours at the registrar of voters in Clairemont to do my early voting. When I left at around 5pm, the line was just as long as when I had gotten there at 11:30. So people at the end of the line at 5pm will be voting around 10:30pm tonight. Spirits were high, everyone was friendly, no complaining, people seemed pumped and proud to stand in line with strangers for almost 6 hours.

The majority of voters were younger, college aged, and I’d estimate mostly around 40ish and below. Lots of hispanic and african american voters. Yeah, I know, California doesn’t matter much on the national stage, but holy shit I was blown away by the turnout. If the same situation is playing out in swing states, spin all you want — McCain is due for the sixth crash and burn of his career.

[afx114]

Not that California matters, but I just stood in line for five and a half hours at the registrar of voters in Clairemont to do my early voting. When I left at around 5pm, the line was just as long as when I had gotten there at 11:30. So people at the end of the line at 5pm will be voting around 10:30pm tonight. Spirits were high, everyone was friendly, no complaining, people seemed pumped and proud to stand in line with strangers for almost 6 hours.

The majority of voters were younger, college aged, and I’d estimate mostly around 40ish and below. Lots of hispanic and african american voters. Yeah, I know, California doesn’t matter much on the national stage, but holy shit I was blown away by the turnout. If the same situation is playing out in swing states, spin all you want — McCain is due for the sixth crash and burn of his career.

[afx114]

Not that California matters, but I just stood in line for five and a half hours at the registrar of voters in Clairemont to do my early voting. When I left at around 5pm, the line was just as long as when I had gotten there at 11:30. So people at the end of the line at 5pm will be voting around 10:30pm tonight. Spirits were high, everyone was friendly, no complaining, people seemed pumped and proud to stand in line with strangers for almost 6 hours.

The majority of voters were younger, college aged, and I’d estimate mostly around 40ish and below. Lots of hispanic and african american voters. Yeah, I know, California doesn’t matter much on the national stage, but holy shit I was blown away by the turnout. If the same situation is playing out in swing states, spin all you want — McCain is due for the sixth crash and burn of his career.

[afx114]

Not that California matters, but I just stood in line for five and a half hours at the registrar of voters in Clairemont to do my early voting. When I left at around 5pm, the line was just as long as when I had gotten there at 11:30. So people at the end of the line at 5pm will be voting around 10:30pm tonight. Spirits were high, everyone was friendly, no complaining, people seemed pumped and proud to stand in line with strangers for almost 6 hours.

The majority of voters were younger, college aged, and I’d estimate mostly around 40ish and below. Lots of hispanic and african american voters. Yeah, I know, California doesn’t matter much on the national stage, but holy shit I was blown away by the turnout. If the same situation is playing out in swing states, spin all you want — McCain is due for the sixth crash and burn of his career.

[afx114]

Not that California matters, but I just stood in line for five and a half hours at the registrar of voters in Clairemont to do my early voting. When I left at around 5pm, the line was just as long as when I had gotten there at 11:30. So people at the end of the line at 5pm will be voting around 10:30pm tonight. Spirits were high, everyone was friendly, no complaining, people seemed pumped and proud to stand in line with strangers for almost 6 hours.

The majority of voters were younger, college aged, and I’d estimate mostly around 40ish and below. Lots of hispanic and african american voters. Yeah, I know, California doesn’t matter much on the national stage, but holy shit I was blown away by the turnout. If the same situation is playing out in swing states, spin all you want — McCain is due for the sixth crash and burn of his career.

[afx114]

P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

[afx114]

P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

[afx114]

P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

[afx114]

P.S., here is a good analysis on what a McCain victory could look like:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

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