OIL – 20$ – Can it happen, how to short oil

[paramount]

Prediction on gas prices

I took about 10 years of gas price data from around Southern California (AAA So Cal) and input the data in Excel. I had quarterly surveyed data points.

Using an add-on tool called Megastat, I had Excel come up with a model so I could use it to predict future gas prices. Once I had my initial model, I back correlated the prices to check for accuracy and it was nearly dead-on.

With that in mind, using the model I determined that gas will hit (on average) $4/gallon by Spring 2009 (May specifically) in So Cal.

[Coronita]

I think a lot of market speculators that were shorting oil or buying reverse indexes on oil companies recently got their a** handed to them recently. Hence the dead silence. I don't know, seems like americans don't mind $100/oil, and as the us dollar keeps devaluing, i'm not sure where oil is going to end up.

It probably doesn't also help that there is an expectation of yet another interest rate cut, as I received a headline news this morning.

Although most analysts expect the Fed to go ahead with another 50 basis point cut at the next meeting, fears that stagflation may become entrenched are rising. 

That said, I drove a Prius rental car in spain last week. Europeans pay an arm and a leg for gas….I guess we're getting there ourselves. I was pretty impressed, except that it's a little weird that it drives like a golf cart when you first start up (being dead quite). It's probably not the best kind of car to drive in a crowded cities in europe, because people walk all over streets and are use to moving out of your way when they here your car's engine behind them…But in a Prius, it's pretty dead silent when you're rolling around in a crowded city. I'm considering getting a more fuel efficient car as a commuter. My only gripe is i wish there was an affordable full electric car. The Tesla roadster is a little out of my price range…And oh, I wish the Prius had slightly more attractive exterior packaging.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

I think a lot of market speculators that were shorting oil or buying reverse indexes on oil companies recently got their a** handed to them recently. Hence the dead silence. I don't know, seems like americans don't mind $100/oil, and as the us dollar keeps devaluing, i'm not sure where oil is going to end up.

It probably doesn't also help that there is an expectation of yet another interest rate cut, as I received a headline news this morning.

Although most analysts expect the Fed to go ahead with another 50 basis point cut at the next meeting, fears that stagflation may become entrenched are rising. 

That said, I drove a Prius rental car in spain last week. Europeans pay an arm and a leg for gas….I guess we're getting there ourselves. I was pretty impressed, except that it's a little weird that it drives like a golf cart when you first start up (being dead quite). It's probably not the best kind of car to drive in a crowded cities in europe, because people walk all over streets and are use to moving out of your way when they here your car's engine behind them…But in a Prius, it's pretty dead silent when you're rolling around in a crowded city. I'm considering getting a more fuel efficient car as a commuter. My only gripe is i wish there was an affordable full electric car. The Tesla roadster is a little out of my price range…And oh, I wish the Prius had slightly more attractive exterior packaging.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

I think a lot of market speculators that were shorting oil or buying reverse indexes on oil companies recently got their a** handed to them recently. Hence the dead silence. I don't know, seems like americans don't mind $100/oil, and as the us dollar keeps devaluing, i'm not sure where oil is going to end up.

It probably doesn't also help that there is an expectation of yet another interest rate cut, as I received a headline news this morning.

Although most analysts expect the Fed to go ahead with another 50 basis point cut at the next meeting, fears that stagflation may become entrenched are rising. 

That said, I drove a Prius rental car in spain last week. Europeans pay an arm and a leg for gas….I guess we're getting there ourselves. I was pretty impressed, except that it's a little weird that it drives like a golf cart when you first start up (being dead quite). It's probably not the best kind of car to drive in a crowded cities in europe, because people walk all over streets and are use to moving out of your way when they here your car's engine behind them…But in a Prius, it's pretty dead silent when you're rolling around in a crowded city. I'm considering getting a more fuel efficient car as a commuter. My only gripe is i wish there was an affordable full electric car. The Tesla roadster is a little out of my price range…And oh, I wish the Prius had slightly more attractive exterior packaging.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

I think a lot of market speculators that were shorting oil or buying reverse indexes on oil companies recently got their a** handed to them recently. Hence the dead silence. I don't know, seems like americans don't mind $100/oil, and as the us dollar keeps devaluing, i'm not sure where oil is going to end up.

It probably doesn't also help that there is an expectation of yet another interest rate cut, as I received a headline news this morning.

Although most analysts expect the Fed to go ahead with another 50 basis point cut at the next meeting, fears that stagflation may become entrenched are rising. 

That said, I drove a Prius rental car in spain last week. Europeans pay an arm and a leg for gas….I guess we're getting there ourselves. I was pretty impressed, except that it's a little weird that it drives like a golf cart when you first start up (being dead quite). It's probably not the best kind of car to drive in a crowded cities in europe, because people walk all over streets and are use to moving out of your way when they here your car's engine behind them…But in a Prius, it's pretty dead silent when you're rolling around in a crowded city. I'm considering getting a more fuel efficient car as a commuter. My only gripe is i wish there was an affordable full electric car. The Tesla roadster is a little out of my price range…And oh, I wish the Prius had slightly more attractive exterior packaging.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

I think a lot of market speculators that were shorting oil or buying reverse indexes on oil companies recently got their a** handed to them recently. Hence the dead silence. I don't know, seems like americans don't mind $100/oil, and as the us dollar keeps devaluing, i'm not sure where oil is going to end up.

It probably doesn't also help that there is an expectation of yet another interest rate cut, as I received a headline news this morning.

Although most analysts expect the Fed to go ahead with another 50 basis point cut at the next meeting, fears that stagflation may become entrenched are rising. 

That said, I drove a Prius rental car in spain last week. Europeans pay an arm and a leg for gas….I guess we're getting there ourselves. I was pretty impressed, except that it's a little weird that it drives like a golf cart when you first start up (being dead quite). It's probably not the best kind of car to drive in a crowded cities in europe, because people walk all over streets and are use to moving out of your way when they here your car's engine behind them…But in a Prius, it's pretty dead silent when you're rolling around in a crowded city. I'm considering getting a more fuel efficient car as a commuter. My only gripe is i wish there was an affordable full electric car. The Tesla roadster is a little out of my price range…And oh, I wish the Prius had slightly more attractive exterior packaging.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Arraya]

“With that in mind, using the model I determined that gas will hit (on average) $4/gallon by Spring 2009 (May specifically) in So Cal.”

We could still potentially see $4 gasoline by summer, but it is looking increasingly less likely that inventories will drive the price as they did last year. Inventories should start to come down as turnaround season gets into full gear, but we are starting this year in a more comfortable place than last year. To hit $4 by summer, oil prices will need to continue the current run – maybe to the $120/bbl range – and/or gasoline inventories need to start coming down quickly. If oil holds at around $100, we are going to have to see a pretty steep draw to get to $4 before summer.

[Arraya]

“With that in mind, using the model I determined that gas will hit (on average) $4/gallon by Spring 2009 (May specifically) in So Cal.”

We could still potentially see $4 gasoline by summer, but it is looking increasingly less likely that inventories will drive the price as they did last year. Inventories should start to come down as turnaround season gets into full gear, but we are starting this year in a more comfortable place than last year. To hit $4 by summer, oil prices will need to continue the current run – maybe to the $120/bbl range – and/or gasoline inventories need to start coming down quickly. If oil holds at around $100, we are going to have to see a pretty steep draw to get to $4 before summer.

[Arraya]

“With that in mind, using the model I determined that gas will hit (on average) $4/gallon by Spring 2009 (May specifically) in So Cal.”

We could still potentially see $4 gasoline by summer, but it is looking increasingly less likely that inventories will drive the price as they did last year. Inventories should start to come down as turnaround season gets into full gear, but we are starting this year in a more comfortable place than last year. To hit $4 by summer, oil prices will need to continue the current run – maybe to the $120/bbl range – and/or gasoline inventories need to start coming down quickly. If oil holds at around $100, we are going to have to see a pretty steep draw to get to $4 before summer.

[Arraya]

“With that in mind, using the model I determined that gas will hit (on average) $4/gallon by Spring 2009 (May specifically) in So Cal.”

We could still potentially see $4 gasoline by summer, but it is looking increasingly less likely that inventories will drive the price as they did last year. Inventories should start to come down as turnaround season gets into full gear, but we are starting this year in a more comfortable place than last year. To hit $4 by summer, oil prices will need to continue the current run – maybe to the $120/bbl range – and/or gasoline inventories need to start coming down quickly. If oil holds at around $100, we are going to have to see a pretty steep draw to get to $4 before summer.

[Arraya]

“With that in mind, using the model I determined that gas will hit (on average) $4/gallon by Spring 2009 (May specifically) in So Cal.”

We could still potentially see $4 gasoline by summer, but it is looking increasingly less likely that inventories will drive the price as they did last year. Inventories should start to come down as turnaround season gets into full gear, but we are starting this year in a more comfortable place than last year. To hit $4 by summer, oil prices will need to continue the current run – maybe to the $120/bbl range – and/or gasoline inventories need to start coming down quickly. If oil holds at around $100, we are going to have to see a pretty steep draw to get to $4 before summer.

[desmond]

Just got my oil & gas check from the land I own in Texas, up 50% from the previous month.

[desmond]

Just got my oil & gas check from the land I own in Texas, up 50% from the previous month.

[desmond]

Just got my oil & gas check from the land I own in Texas, up 50% from the previous month.

[desmond]

Just got my oil & gas check from the land I own in Texas, up 50% from the previous month.

[Author]

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