OIL – 20$ – Can it happen, how to short oil

[stockstradr]

>>I would rather attribute this short success to the overall market bloodbath

Well, it seems you’re mostly correct on that, as the DJ Oil & Gas Index correlates fairly well to the S&P500 over last three months, except it appears the oil and gas sector index was hit harder falling about 5% more (fell further) than the S&P500.

[Personally, it doesn’t matter to me if the overall market correction was the driver because in Oct ’07 I had A LOT more of my portfolio bet on a downside correction in overall stock indexes than I had in short oil sector positions]

Yes, I also plan to start buying oil LONG at $70/bbl, and accelerate my buying as it nears $60. I absolutely view this recession as bringing the LAST opportunity to buy oil at reasonable prices during the first phase of onset of Peak Oil dynamics

Now the one problem with my little prediction of $60 oil might be say 20% (real inflation, not fake gov. stat’s CPI) inflation on the dollar over the next 24 months and oil prices are set in dollars. Maybe I should qualify my prediction by saying I expect oil will hit $60 in inflation-adjusted dollars during the next 24 months.

One other comment, if there is ANY question if the “pro’s” and non-pro’s have been shorting oil based on predicted recession (demand for oil drops) then just TURN ON YOUR TV or read your newspaper! The short oil pundits have been out in full force in the media now for over a month, although I admit my claim is a little thin that they have been shorting oil since Oct ’07.

[Anonymous]

Sigh.

You, sir, seem perfectly willing to put your hard-earned, after-tax dollars into an investment idea which you: A) know so little about that you cannot even be bothered to conduct a 30-second internet search upon price history (i.e., “always used to be $20 – $30”); B) have not the first clue as to how to monetize your theory (i.e., the mechanics of shorting oil); C) reach out to people whom you do not know for investment advice.

I suspect that if responders argued for you to buy real estate on the moon, you’d be imprinted with that notion, not unlike a baby duck would to a dog after it lost its mother.

Commodities prices react to changes in three areas: supply of the asset, demand for the asset, and the supply of the currency in which it is quoted (dollars in America). You have argued, by asertion only, for a change in the demand for oil. You have neglected to think about the other two areas.

You, sir, are a fool. Please park your money in a FDIC savings account. Granted, it will be eaten away over time by negative real interest rates, but at least this process will take years. Your money will last only hours in the commodities market.

[Anonymous]

Sigh.

You, sir, seem perfectly willing to put your hard-earned, after-tax dollars into an investment idea which you: A) know so little about that you cannot even be bothered to conduct a 30-second internet search upon price history (i.e., “always used to be $20 – $30”); B) have not the first clue as to how to monetize your theory (i.e., the mechanics of shorting oil); C) reach out to people whom you do not know for investment advice.

I suspect that if responders argued for you to buy real estate on the moon, you’d be imprinted with that notion, not unlike a baby duck would to a dog after it lost its mother.

Commodities prices react to changes in three areas: supply of the asset, demand for the asset, and the supply of the currency in which it is quoted (dollars in America). You have argued, by asertion only, for a change in the demand for oil. You have neglected to think about the other two areas.

You, sir, are a fool. Please park your money in a FDIC savings account. Granted, it will be eaten away over time by negative real interest rates, but at least this process will take years. Your money will last only hours in the commodities market.

[Anonymous]

Sigh.

You, sir, seem perfectly willing to put your hard-earned, after-tax dollars into an investment idea which you: A) know so little about that you cannot even be bothered to conduct a 30-second internet search upon price history (i.e., “always used to be $20 – $30”); B) have not the first clue as to how to monetize your theory (i.e., the mechanics of shorting oil); C) reach out to people whom you do not know for investment advice.

I suspect that if responders argued for you to buy real estate on the moon, you’d be imprinted with that notion, not unlike a baby duck would to a dog after it lost its mother.

Commodities prices react to changes in three areas: supply of the asset, demand for the asset, and the supply of the currency in which it is quoted (dollars in America). You have argued, by asertion only, for a change in the demand for oil. You have neglected to think about the other two areas.

You, sir, are a fool. Please park your money in a FDIC savings account. Granted, it will be eaten away over time by negative real interest rates, but at least this process will take years. Your money will last only hours in the commodities market.

[Anonymous]

Sigh.

You, sir, seem perfectly willing to put your hard-earned, after-tax dollars into an investment idea which you: A) know so little about that you cannot even be bothered to conduct a 30-second internet search upon price history (i.e., “always used to be $20 – $30”); B) have not the first clue as to how to monetize your theory (i.e., the mechanics of shorting oil); C) reach out to people whom you do not know for investment advice.

I suspect that if responders argued for you to buy real estate on the moon, you’d be imprinted with that notion, not unlike a baby duck would to a dog after it lost its mother.

Commodities prices react to changes in three areas: supply of the asset, demand for the asset, and the supply of the currency in which it is quoted (dollars in America). You have argued, by asertion only, for a change in the demand for oil. You have neglected to think about the other two areas.

You, sir, are a fool. Please park your money in a FDIC savings account. Granted, it will be eaten away over time by negative real interest rates, but at least this process will take years. Your money will last only hours in the commodities market.

[Anonymous]

Sigh.

You, sir, seem perfectly willing to put your hard-earned, after-tax dollars into an investment idea which you: A) know so little about that you cannot even be bothered to conduct a 30-second internet search upon price history (i.e., “always used to be $20 – $30”); B) have not the first clue as to how to monetize your theory (i.e., the mechanics of shorting oil); C) reach out to people whom you do not know for investment advice.

I suspect that if responders argued for you to buy real estate on the moon, you’d be imprinted with that notion, not unlike a baby duck would to a dog after it lost its mother.

Commodities prices react to changes in three areas: supply of the asset, demand for the asset, and the supply of the currency in which it is quoted (dollars in America). You have argued, by asertion only, for a change in the demand for oil. You have neglected to think about the other two areas.

You, sir, are a fool. Please park your money in a FDIC savings account. Granted, it will be eaten away over time by negative real interest rates, but at least this process will take years. Your money will last only hours in the commodities market.

[macmichael]

Almost 2 weeks since there was much posted on this thread.

For those who have thought it through alot. Have any of your thoughts changed in that period?

[macmichael]

Almost 2 weeks since there was much posted on this thread.

For those who have thought it through alot. Have any of your thoughts changed in that period?

[macmichael]

Almost 2 weeks since there was much posted on this thread.

For those who have thought it through alot. Have any of your thoughts changed in that period?

[macmichael]

Almost 2 weeks since there was much posted on this thread.

For those who have thought it through alot. Have any of your thoughts changed in that period?

[macmichael]

Almost 2 weeks since there was much posted on this thread.

For those who have thought it through alot. Have any of your thoughts changed in that period?

[paramount]

Prediction on gas prices

I took about 10 years of gas price data from around Southern California (AAA So Cal) and input the data in Excel. I had quarterly surveyed data points.

Using an add-on tool called Megastat, I had Excel come up with a model so I could use it to predict future gas prices. Once I had my initial model, I back correlated the prices to check for accuracy and it was nearly dead-on.

With that in mind, using the model I determined that gas will hit (on average) $4/gallon by Spring 2009 (May specifically) in So Cal.

[paramount]

Prediction on gas prices

I took about 10 years of gas price data from around Southern California (AAA So Cal) and input the data in Excel. I had quarterly surveyed data points.

Using an add-on tool called Megastat, I had Excel come up with a model so I could use it to predict future gas prices. Once I had my initial model, I back correlated the prices to check for accuracy and it was nearly dead-on.

With that in mind, using the model I determined that gas will hit (on average) $4/gallon by Spring 2009 (May specifically) in So Cal.

[paramount]

Prediction on gas prices

I took about 10 years of gas price data from around Southern California (AAA So Cal) and input the data in Excel. I had quarterly surveyed data points.

Using an add-on tool called Megastat, I had Excel come up with a model so I could use it to predict future gas prices. Once I had my initial model, I back correlated the prices to check for accuracy and it was nearly dead-on.

With that in mind, using the model I determined that gas will hit (on average) $4/gallon by Spring 2009 (May specifically) in So Cal.

[paramount]

Prediction on gas prices

I took about 10 years of gas price data from around Southern California (AAA So Cal) and input the data in Excel. I had quarterly surveyed data points.

Using an add-on tool called Megastat, I had Excel come up with a model so I could use it to predict future gas prices. Once I had my initial model, I back correlated the prices to check for accuracy and it was nearly dead-on.

With that in mind, using the model I determined that gas will hit (on average) $4/gallon by Spring 2009 (May specifically) in So Cal.

[Author]

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