Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › OIL – 20$ – Can it happen, how to short oil
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macmichael.
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February 7, 2008 at 12:24 PM #149683February 7, 2008 at 1:39 PM #149362
GoUSC
ParticipantI think any decrease in oil demand in the US would be taken up by other countries. $20/barrel won’t be happening. If the theory of PEAK OIL is true we won’t see oil fall anytime soon.
February 7, 2008 at 1:39 PM #149616ParticipantI think any decrease in oil demand in the US would be taken up by other countries. $20/barrel won’t be happening. If the theory of PEAK OIL is true we won’t see oil fall anytime soon.
February 7, 2008 at 1:39 PM #149634ParticipantI think any decrease in oil demand in the US would be taken up by other countries. $20/barrel won’t be happening. If the theory of PEAK OIL is true we won’t see oil fall anytime soon.
February 7, 2008 at 1:39 PM #149648ParticipantI think any decrease in oil demand in the US would be taken up by other countries. $20/barrel won’t be happening. If the theory of PEAK OIL is true we won’t see oil fall anytime soon.
February 7, 2008 at 1:39 PM #149717ParticipantI think any decrease in oil demand in the US would be taken up by other countries. $20/barrel won’t be happening. If the theory of PEAK OIL is true we won’t see oil fall anytime soon.
February 7, 2008 at 5:54 PM #149506Arraya
ParticipantOil prices are caught in a tug of war between slowing demand (at least in some areas), flat production and declining net oil exports. I do think that it is a mistake to overestimate the possible decline in demand with 100s of millions of potential eager new drivers in India and China and a $2500 car coming on the market.
On the supply side, there is continuing evidence that the annual decline rate in net oil exports by the top five net oil exporters is accelerating. Russia, for the first time in years, is currently reporting a monthly year over year decline in crude oil production, after a period of essentially flat production since October, 2006, and domestic petroleum consumption is exploding. All this with total world production essentially flat and not very likely to increase beyond 85 million bbl per day.
Maybe we would see those kinds of prices with a major reduction in world population or a severe world depression but thats about it.
February 7, 2008 at 5:54 PM #149761ParticipantOil prices are caught in a tug of war between slowing demand (at least in some areas), flat production and declining net oil exports. I do think that it is a mistake to overestimate the possible decline in demand with 100s of millions of potential eager new drivers in India and China and a $2500 car coming on the market.
On the supply side, there is continuing evidence that the annual decline rate in net oil exports by the top five net oil exporters is accelerating. Russia, for the first time in years, is currently reporting a monthly year over year decline in crude oil production, after a period of essentially flat production since October, 2006, and domestic petroleum consumption is exploding. All this with total world production essentially flat and not very likely to increase beyond 85 million bbl per day.
Maybe we would see those kinds of prices with a major reduction in world population or a severe world depression but thats about it.
February 7, 2008 at 5:54 PM #149775ParticipantOil prices are caught in a tug of war between slowing demand (at least in some areas), flat production and declining net oil exports. I do think that it is a mistake to overestimate the possible decline in demand with 100s of millions of potential eager new drivers in India and China and a $2500 car coming on the market.
On the supply side, there is continuing evidence that the annual decline rate in net oil exports by the top five net oil exporters is accelerating. Russia, for the first time in years, is currently reporting a monthly year over year decline in crude oil production, after a period of essentially flat production since October, 2006, and domestic petroleum consumption is exploding. All this with total world production essentially flat and not very likely to increase beyond 85 million bbl per day.
Maybe we would see those kinds of prices with a major reduction in world population or a severe world depression but thats about it.
February 7, 2008 at 5:54 PM #149791ParticipantOil prices are caught in a tug of war between slowing demand (at least in some areas), flat production and declining net oil exports. I do think that it is a mistake to overestimate the possible decline in demand with 100s of millions of potential eager new drivers in India and China and a $2500 car coming on the market.
On the supply side, there is continuing evidence that the annual decline rate in net oil exports by the top five net oil exporters is accelerating. Russia, for the first time in years, is currently reporting a monthly year over year decline in crude oil production, after a period of essentially flat production since October, 2006, and domestic petroleum consumption is exploding. All this with total world production essentially flat and not very likely to increase beyond 85 million bbl per day.
Maybe we would see those kinds of prices with a major reduction in world population or a severe world depression but thats about it.
February 7, 2008 at 5:54 PM #149861ParticipantOil prices are caught in a tug of war between slowing demand (at least in some areas), flat production and declining net oil exports. I do think that it is a mistake to overestimate the possible decline in demand with 100s of millions of potential eager new drivers in India and China and a $2500 car coming on the market.
On the supply side, there is continuing evidence that the annual decline rate in net oil exports by the top five net oil exporters is accelerating. Russia, for the first time in years, is currently reporting a monthly year over year decline in crude oil production, after a period of essentially flat production since October, 2006, and domestic petroleum consumption is exploding. All this with total world production essentially flat and not very likely to increase beyond 85 million bbl per day.
Maybe we would see those kinds of prices with a major reduction in world population or a severe world depression but thats about it.
February 8, 2008 at 7:53 AM #149697Anonymous
GuestThe USO ETF doesn’t have long term options, so you can’t go farther than July 08 right now. People often lose money on options because they expire before the expected price move happens.
Another possibility would be OIH, which is an ETF of oil service companies, such as drillers, etc. Options are available to Jan 2010.
I don’t think oil will see $20-30. Even if demand falls, you’re at the whim of OPEC. Heck, you’re at the whim of the Saudis. Then again, predicting energy prices is like predicting where the ball will land on a roulette wheel.
Just go to a casino. At least in a casino, you KNOW you’re gambling. Plus, free drinks!
February 8, 2008 at 7:53 AM #149954GuestThe USO ETF doesn’t have long term options, so you can’t go farther than July 08 right now. People often lose money on options because they expire before the expected price move happens.
Another possibility would be OIH, which is an ETF of oil service companies, such as drillers, etc. Options are available to Jan 2010.
I don’t think oil will see $20-30. Even if demand falls, you’re at the whim of OPEC. Heck, you’re at the whim of the Saudis. Then again, predicting energy prices is like predicting where the ball will land on a roulette wheel.
Just go to a casino. At least in a casino, you KNOW you’re gambling. Plus, free drinks!
February 8, 2008 at 7:53 AM #149968GuestThe USO ETF doesn’t have long term options, so you can’t go farther than July 08 right now. People often lose money on options because they expire before the expected price move happens.
Another possibility would be OIH, which is an ETF of oil service companies, such as drillers, etc. Options are available to Jan 2010.
I don’t think oil will see $20-30. Even if demand falls, you’re at the whim of OPEC. Heck, you’re at the whim of the Saudis. Then again, predicting energy prices is like predicting where the ball will land on a roulette wheel.
Just go to a casino. At least in a casino, you KNOW you’re gambling. Plus, free drinks!
February 8, 2008 at 7:53 AM #149983GuestThe USO ETF doesn’t have long term options, so you can’t go farther than July 08 right now. People often lose money on options because they expire before the expected price move happens.
Another possibility would be OIH, which is an ETF of oil service companies, such as drillers, etc. Options are available to Jan 2010.
I don’t think oil will see $20-30. Even if demand falls, you’re at the whim of OPEC. Heck, you’re at the whim of the Saudis. Then again, predicting energy prices is like predicting where the ball will land on a roulette wheel.
Just go to a casino. At least in a casino, you KNOW you’re gambling. Plus, free drinks!
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