Now start Predictions for 2009

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]Real GDP: down 5%-6% (and down another couple of percent in the first half of 2010)[/quote]

I was too pessimistic. GDP was down a cumulative 3.8% peak-to-trough (well, through the 2Q09 “trough”). In the first half of 2009 GDP was down a cumulative 1.8%. It will probably be only slightly down for all of 2009. Probably flattish or slightly up in 2010.

[quote=davelj]
Unemployment nationwide (reported): 9%
Unemployment California (reported): 10%[/quote]

Not too horrible on these two. Nationwide unemployment was 10% in November, in CA it was 12%. I was too optimistic.

[quote=davelj]
SD housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 15% in the Case-Shiller index (so down about 40% peak-to-trough by year end)
Nationwide housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 18% in the Case-Shiller index (so down a bit under 30% peak-to-trough by year end)[/quote]

I almost got the peak-to-troughs (well, “current troughs”) right – in SD it was -42.3% and for the US it was -30% (both in March). But I didn’t count on the rally that began in the spring. Both SD and Nationwide prices will probably be up about 5% once 2009 is officially put to bed.

[quote=davelj]
S&P 500: no opinion where it will close but I think 2009 will see the bottom for this bear market. Could be at 750, could be at 550 (my guess is 600-650)… but I think we’ll see “The Bottom” sometime this year. [/quote]

Unless we eventually break through 666, I was very close on this one.

[quote=davelj]
Oil: no opinion for 2009, but much higher in 5 years than where it is today[/quote]

It’s already much higher…

And, no, I made no real money on any of these prognostications. I was too busy playing it safe.

[Eugene]

[quote=meadandale]
I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Do not confuse turning against Obama for turning towards Republicans. Many people start to dislike Obama and the Congress for being too centrist:

[Eugene]

[quote=meadandale]
I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Do not confuse turning against Obama for turning towards Republicans. Many people start to dislike Obama and the Congress for being too centrist:

[Eugene]

[quote=meadandale]
I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Do not confuse turning against Obama for turning towards Republicans. Many people start to dislike Obama and the Congress for being too centrist:

[Eugene]

[quote=meadandale]
I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Do not confuse turning against Obama for turning towards Republicans. Many people start to dislike Obama and the Congress for being too centrist:

[Eugene]

[quote=meadandale]
I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Do not confuse turning against Obama for turning towards Republicans. Many people start to dislike Obama and the Congress for being too centrist:

[CardiffBaseball]

Ted Bell’s Steakhouse is one of Beverly Hills’ finest, I am glad someone else is fully aware.

Since going to a strictly Carnivore based diet, I need to make another trip up there. Last time I took this hot MILF Bobby Dooley with me.

[CardiffBaseball]

Ted Bell’s Steakhouse is one of Beverly Hills’ finest, I am glad someone else is fully aware.

Since going to a strictly Carnivore based diet, I need to make another trip up there. Last time I took this hot MILF Bobby Dooley with me.

[CardiffBaseball]

Ted Bell’s Steakhouse is one of Beverly Hills’ finest, I am glad someone else is fully aware.

Since going to a strictly Carnivore based diet, I need to make another trip up there. Last time I took this hot MILF Bobby Dooley with me.

[CardiffBaseball]

Ted Bell’s Steakhouse is one of Beverly Hills’ finest, I am glad someone else is fully aware.

Since going to a strictly Carnivore based diet, I need to make another trip up there. Last time I took this hot MILF Bobby Dooley with me.

[CardiffBaseball]

Ted Bell’s Steakhouse is one of Beverly Hills’ finest, I am glad someone else is fully aware.

Since going to a strictly Carnivore based diet, I need to make another trip up there. Last time I took this hot MILF Bobby Dooley with me.

[sdrealtor]

I love it. Another fan of a true comedic genius.

BTW, You know Ted Bell invented the aluminum foil wrapped baked potato. Its the only place I’ll eat up in Beverly Hills;)

[sdrealtor]

I love it. Another fan of a true comedic genius.

BTW, You know Ted Bell invented the aluminum foil wrapped baked potato. Its the only place I’ll eat up in Beverly Hills;)

[sdrealtor]

I love it. Another fan of a true comedic genius.

BTW, You know Ted Bell invented the aluminum foil wrapped baked potato. Its the only place I’ll eat up in Beverly Hills;)

[sdrealtor]

I love it. Another fan of a true comedic genius.

BTW, You know Ted Bell invented the aluminum foil wrapped baked potato. Its the only place I’ll eat up in Beverly Hills;)

[Author]

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