Now start Predictions for 2009

[meadandale]

[quote=svelte]Yes, Breeze did quite good…nailed everything he wrote. Impressive![/quote]

Except for this little nugget…

[quote=TheBreeze]Oh, and after Obama rescues the U.S. from certain doom and returns this country to prosperity, AN and FLU will switch their voter registration to Democrat and buy Hillary Clinton nutcracker dolls and Obama “Yes We Can” bumper stickers.[/quote]

I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.

[svelte]

[quote=meadandale]

Except for this little nugget…

[quote=TheBreeze]Oh, and after Obama rescues the U.S. from certain doom and returns this country to prosperity, AN and FLU will switch their voter registration to Democrat and buy Hillary Clinton nutcracker dolls and Obama “Yes We Can” bumper stickers.[/quote]

I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Maybe you don’t recognize humor when you see it…I am pretty sure that paragraph was written in jest.

[svelte]

[quote=meadandale]

Except for this little nugget…

[quote=TheBreeze]Oh, and after Obama rescues the U.S. from certain doom and returns this country to prosperity, AN and FLU will switch their voter registration to Democrat and buy Hillary Clinton nutcracker dolls and Obama “Yes We Can” bumper stickers.[/quote]

I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Maybe you don’t recognize humor when you see it…I am pretty sure that paragraph was written in jest.

[svelte]

[quote=meadandale]

Except for this little nugget…

[quote=TheBreeze]Oh, and after Obama rescues the U.S. from certain doom and returns this country to prosperity, AN and FLU will switch their voter registration to Democrat and buy Hillary Clinton nutcracker dolls and Obama “Yes We Can” bumper stickers.[/quote]

I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Maybe you don’t recognize humor when you see it…I am pretty sure that paragraph was written in jest.

[svelte]

[quote=meadandale]

Except for this little nugget…

[quote=TheBreeze]Oh, and after Obama rescues the U.S. from certain doom and returns this country to prosperity, AN and FLU will switch their voter registration to Democrat and buy Hillary Clinton nutcracker dolls and Obama “Yes We Can” bumper stickers.[/quote]

I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Maybe you don’t recognize humor when you see it…I am pretty sure that paragraph was written in jest.

[svelte]

[quote=meadandale]

Except for this little nugget…

[quote=TheBreeze]Oh, and after Obama rescues the U.S. from certain doom and returns this country to prosperity, AN and FLU will switch their voter registration to Democrat and buy Hillary Clinton nutcracker dolls and Obama “Yes We Can” bumper stickers.[/quote]

I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Maybe you don’t recognize humor when you see it…I am pretty sure that paragraph was written in jest.

[meadandale]

[quote=svelte][quote=meadandale]

Except for this little nugget…

[quote=TheBreeze]Oh, and after Obama rescues the U.S. from certain doom and returns this country to prosperity, AN and FLU will switch their voter registration to Democrat and buy Hillary Clinton nutcracker dolls and Obama “Yes We Can” bumper stickers.[/quote]

I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Maybe you don’t recognize humor when you see it…I am pretty sure that paragraph was written in jest.[/quote]

Oh Breeze most certainly believes the first portion of the sentence…that’s certainly a joke but it wasn’t in jest.

[meadandale]

[quote=svelte][quote=meadandale]

Except for this little nugget…

[quote=TheBreeze]Oh, and after Obama rescues the U.S. from certain doom and returns this country to prosperity, AN and FLU will switch their voter registration to Democrat and buy Hillary Clinton nutcracker dolls and Obama “Yes We Can” bumper stickers.[/quote]

I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Maybe you don’t recognize humor when you see it…I am pretty sure that paragraph was written in jest.[/quote]

Oh Breeze most certainly believes the first portion of the sentence…that’s certainly a joke but it wasn’t in jest.

[meadandale]

[quote=svelte][quote=meadandale]

Except for this little nugget…

[quote=TheBreeze]Oh, and after Obama rescues the U.S. from certain doom and returns this country to prosperity, AN and FLU will switch their voter registration to Democrat and buy Hillary Clinton nutcracker dolls and Obama “Yes We Can” bumper stickers.[/quote]

I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Maybe you don’t recognize humor when you see it…I am pretty sure that paragraph was written in jest.[/quote]

Oh Breeze most certainly believes the first portion of the sentence…that’s certainly a joke but it wasn’t in jest.

[meadandale]

[quote=svelte][quote=meadandale]

Except for this little nugget…

[quote=TheBreeze]Oh, and after Obama rescues the U.S. from certain doom and returns this country to prosperity, AN and FLU will switch their voter registration to Democrat and buy Hillary Clinton nutcracker dolls and Obama “Yes We Can” bumper stickers.[/quote]

I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Maybe you don’t recognize humor when you see it…I am pretty sure that paragraph was written in jest.[/quote]

Oh Breeze most certainly believes the first portion of the sentence…that’s certainly a joke but it wasn’t in jest.

[meadandale]

[quote=svelte][quote=meadandale]

Except for this little nugget…

[quote=TheBreeze]Oh, and after Obama rescues the U.S. from certain doom and returns this country to prosperity, AN and FLU will switch their voter registration to Democrat and buy Hillary Clinton nutcracker dolls and Obama “Yes We Can” bumper stickers.[/quote]

I predict a bloodbath for the Democrats in the polls in 2010…Obama supporters are turning on him and Congress in droves.[/quote]

Maybe you don’t recognize humor when you see it…I am pretty sure that paragraph was written in jest.[/quote]

Oh Breeze most certainly believes the first portion of the sentence…that’s certainly a joke but it wasn’t in jest.

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]Real GDP: down 5%-6% (and down another couple of percent in the first half of 2010)[/quote]

I was too pessimistic. GDP was down a cumulative 3.8% peak-to-trough (well, through the 2Q09 “trough”). In the first half of 2009 GDP was down a cumulative 1.8%. It will probably be only slightly down for all of 2009. Probably flattish or slightly up in 2010.

[quote=davelj]
Unemployment nationwide (reported): 9%
Unemployment California (reported): 10%[/quote]

Not too horrible on these two. Nationwide unemployment was 10% in November, in CA it was 12%. I was too optimistic.

[quote=davelj]
SD housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 15% in the Case-Shiller index (so down about 40% peak-to-trough by year end)
Nationwide housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 18% in the Case-Shiller index (so down a bit under 30% peak-to-trough by year end)[/quote]

I almost got the peak-to-troughs (well, “current troughs”) right – in SD it was -42.3% and for the US it was -30% (both in March). But I didn’t count on the rally that began in the spring. Both SD and Nationwide prices will probably be up about 5% once 2009 is officially put to bed.

[quote=davelj]
S&P 500: no opinion where it will close but I think 2009 will see the bottom for this bear market. Could be at 750, could be at 550 (my guess is 600-650)… but I think we’ll see “The Bottom” sometime this year. [/quote]

Unless we eventually break through 666, I was very close on this one.

[quote=davelj]
Oil: no opinion for 2009, but much higher in 5 years than where it is today[/quote]

It’s already much higher…

And, no, I made no real money on any of these prognostications. I was too busy playing it safe.

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]Real GDP: down 5%-6% (and down another couple of percent in the first half of 2010)[/quote]

I was too pessimistic. GDP was down a cumulative 3.8% peak-to-trough (well, through the 2Q09 “trough”). In the first half of 2009 GDP was down a cumulative 1.8%. It will probably be only slightly down for all of 2009. Probably flattish or slightly up in 2010.

[quote=davelj]
Unemployment nationwide (reported): 9%
Unemployment California (reported): 10%[/quote]

Not too horrible on these two. Nationwide unemployment was 10% in November, in CA it was 12%. I was too optimistic.

[quote=davelj]
SD housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 15% in the Case-Shiller index (so down about 40% peak-to-trough by year end)
Nationwide housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 18% in the Case-Shiller index (so down a bit under 30% peak-to-trough by year end)[/quote]

I almost got the peak-to-troughs (well, “current troughs”) right – in SD it was -42.3% and for the US it was -30% (both in March). But I didn’t count on the rally that began in the spring. Both SD and Nationwide prices will probably be up about 5% once 2009 is officially put to bed.

[quote=davelj]
S&P 500: no opinion where it will close but I think 2009 will see the bottom for this bear market. Could be at 750, could be at 550 (my guess is 600-650)… but I think we’ll see “The Bottom” sometime this year. [/quote]

Unless we eventually break through 666, I was very close on this one.

[quote=davelj]
Oil: no opinion for 2009, but much higher in 5 years than where it is today[/quote]

It’s already much higher…

And, no, I made no real money on any of these prognostications. I was too busy playing it safe.

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]Real GDP: down 5%-6% (and down another couple of percent in the first half of 2010)[/quote]

I was too pessimistic. GDP was down a cumulative 3.8% peak-to-trough (well, through the 2Q09 “trough”). In the first half of 2009 GDP was down a cumulative 1.8%. It will probably be only slightly down for all of 2009. Probably flattish or slightly up in 2010.

[quote=davelj]
Unemployment nationwide (reported): 9%
Unemployment California (reported): 10%[/quote]

Not too horrible on these two. Nationwide unemployment was 10% in November, in CA it was 12%. I was too optimistic.

[quote=davelj]
SD housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 15% in the Case-Shiller index (so down about 40% peak-to-trough by year end)
Nationwide housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 18% in the Case-Shiller index (so down a bit under 30% peak-to-trough by year end)[/quote]

I almost got the peak-to-troughs (well, “current troughs”) right – in SD it was -42.3% and for the US it was -30% (both in March). But I didn’t count on the rally that began in the spring. Both SD and Nationwide prices will probably be up about 5% once 2009 is officially put to bed.

[quote=davelj]
S&P 500: no opinion where it will close but I think 2009 will see the bottom for this bear market. Could be at 750, could be at 550 (my guess is 600-650)… but I think we’ll see “The Bottom” sometime this year. [/quote]

Unless we eventually break through 666, I was very close on this one.

[quote=davelj]
Oil: no opinion for 2009, but much higher in 5 years than where it is today[/quote]

It’s already much higher…

And, no, I made no real money on any of these prognostications. I was too busy playing it safe.

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]Real GDP: down 5%-6% (and down another couple of percent in the first half of 2010)[/quote]

I was too pessimistic. GDP was down a cumulative 3.8% peak-to-trough (well, through the 2Q09 “trough”). In the first half of 2009 GDP was down a cumulative 1.8%. It will probably be only slightly down for all of 2009. Probably flattish or slightly up in 2010.

[quote=davelj]
Unemployment nationwide (reported): 9%
Unemployment California (reported): 10%[/quote]

Not too horrible on these two. Nationwide unemployment was 10% in November, in CA it was 12%. I was too optimistic.

[quote=davelj]
SD housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 15% in the Case-Shiller index (so down about 40% peak-to-trough by year end)
Nationwide housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 18% in the Case-Shiller index (so down a bit under 30% peak-to-trough by year end)[/quote]

I almost got the peak-to-troughs (well, “current troughs”) right – in SD it was -42.3% and for the US it was -30% (both in March). But I didn’t count on the rally that began in the spring. Both SD and Nationwide prices will probably be up about 5% once 2009 is officially put to bed.

[quote=davelj]
S&P 500: no opinion where it will close but I think 2009 will see the bottom for this bear market. Could be at 750, could be at 550 (my guess is 600-650)… but I think we’ll see “The Bottom” sometime this year. [/quote]

Unless we eventually break through 666, I was very close on this one.

[quote=davelj]
Oil: no opinion for 2009, but much higher in 5 years than where it is today[/quote]

It’s already much higher…

And, no, I made no real money on any of these prognostications. I was too busy playing it safe.

[Author]

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